Florida and Isaac.. hype or the real thing?
The mystery of Miami and Hurricanes.
It's an odd place to live. The Target in Aventura is out of water...or was earlier today.
Brandon Fish posted this picture on Twitter.
http://instagram.com/p/OsEAAATOka/
Senator Bill Nelson sent me an email...and Lord knows how many other people he sent emails to which is a bit ridiculous. Isaac may be a threat to Florida still, even though he has not yet pulled it together and has barely moved North towards Cuba... and it's definitely NOT marching..
Dear Friends,
If you were in Florida during Andrew, you know how important it is to be informed and prepared.
The National Weather Service is a helpful source if you’re looking for forecast information. And the Florida Division of Emergency Management has information specific to the Sunshine State.
Online you might consider keeping up with the National Weather Service on Twitter and Facebook, or following the National Hurricane Center on Twitter.
In addition to keeping up with the forecast, there are sites like Ready.gov (Listo.gov para español) that have good tips on preparing and staying safe in case storms do make landfall in our state.
We’re in the peak of hurricane season, so now’s a good opportunity to take a look at these resources if you haven’t had a chance yet. And my office is also here to help. My website has some good information, and of course always feel free to contact my office with any questions or concerns.
Sincerely,
It's a nice gesture, but I think a little early and premature. I have a daughter whose friend's called her and asked her to call me because everyone is panicking in Publix, everyone bought all the water at Target and BJs and she figured someone must know something really bad has to be about to happen to have everyone go on a crazy shopping spree.
I explained it could become stronger, it could move further wNw and eventually move towards Florida and worst case scenario Miami would most likely be on the very wet side of the storm. No guarantees. Everyone is just being over cautious for now..
Not five minutes later my other daughter called. BCC called up to tell her that they may not have classes on Monday and they would call her on Sunday with information. I can see them doing that on Friday afternoon, but Thursday morning?
So while some people are out gassing up their cars and getting money out of ATMs and shopping at Target .... others are seemingly unaware or just don't care on Twitter.
My local Twitter top ten feeds for my area code are as follows:
Miami Trends
· ChangeMiami is a funny place. It's either party hardy or shop like there's no tomorrow.
The truth lies somewhere in between.
Several years back when another Ernesto came to town.... they refused to let anyone off of work, school was not cancelled ... I took my son out of school, almost got fired for not showing up for work as I stayed home waiting for the rain with blue tarps on my roof and when it became apparent the rain was not really coming... we went to the Beach. Great day, good memories.
This year is the anniversary Andrew and the Republican Convention comes to Tampa and all eyes are on Florida... and everything is different this year.
As for Isaac... he doesn't look good. Recon is having problems finding winds that go from the surface high up into the atmosphere.... they did find some rain and thunder.
This is the Twitter Feed from the Recon Crew:
Do those Tweets sound like a dangerous hurricane is about to MARCH towards Florida?
The plane found light winds, some rain and thunder... am sure they will figure out how to put the proper spin on this at 11.
In truth ... Isaac is down there and conditions have been forecasted by the models to be more favorable for intensification and he is expected to begin moving towards Haiti and Cuba. However, I don't see the movement yet ... I still see a Westerly sort of movement. Officially he is going WNW.
See the loop:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-avn.html
Unless he makes a sharp turn he is not going to hit the Domican Republic and most likely not touch most of Haiti. Hopefully the rain will stay south and spare the people living in tent cities... many people are praying for their safety.
Cuba will get crossed at some point. A slowly simmering system is in the Gulf to his WNW/NW and that could help pull him that way.
That is a poorly organized, minimal Tropical Storm... and we have spent days waiting for it to come together.
Maybe it will... maybe it won't.
It could be a wild card in many ways. It could slow down so much that it doesn't catch any door out of the Graveyard of the Caribbean or it could catch the next path out.. it could hit hot water.
Also, as mentioned earlier in this blog about Ernesto... part of his circulation is being hampered by it's proximity to South America.
He could pull it together, march across Cuba... go through Marathon and the Lower and Middle Keys on his way towards Mobile, Alabama dumping tons of bad weather across most of Florida. We don't know yet ... we know very little.
I spend a lot of time on www.spaghettimodels.com checking on the various parts of the equation looking for the right solution. Mike's Weather Page on Facebook rocks as well.
Some good discussion around the Message Boards. From www.flhurricane.com:
Quote:
"... The point here is that until Issac gets better organized he could do almost anything once he organizes. *Right now models are trending westward, which means exactly nothing* ...
Issac is a dangerous storm. Not because of what it is, but what it could become. A weak storm, a storm not really getting its act together ... and then suddenly intensifying in 88 degree plus GOM waters and then moving on a fast track to NO, Mobile, or Tampa ... " - Storm Tiger
Quote:Some good discussion on Twitter tonight as even the Director of the NHC has been holding Twitter conferences online... see the information below, join Twitter and join in the Discussion.
"I realize that multiple vortices within a general circulation area is the prime suspect, but there seems to have been a bad-luck tendency to pinpoint the wrong one - which becomes frustrating because the real track, forecast track, and model track are seldom in sync. ... Isaac remains a poorly organized system, so realize that the details of the model outputs for both track and intensity will be suspect until Isaac develops and maintains a firm center." - Ed Dunham
My problem is... until this storm develops it's like the guest who didn't come to his own party. TWC is going to be covering Isaac FROM CUBA... for the first time now we just need Isaac to show up.
Besos Bobbi... will be back later for a late night round up regarding the 11PM Discussion which i cannot wait to read...
Gosh I love staying in nice hotel rooms with good wifi, comfortable beds and enjoying watching the Summer Finale of Burn Notice with my son... it's a Miami thing ;)
Dr. Rick Knabb
I might or might not need them this time, but am glad I tested putting up shutters at my (new to me) house a few weeks ago.
Possible impacts next week, plan for what to do in case. MT@datfan666: @NHCDirector what about New Orleans how concerned should we be?
posted by BobbiStorm @ 7:22 PM
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