GFS Pit Bull Style Locks Onto South Florida Landfall
There is so much to say... I'm not sure where to begin.
Read this link:
The point to remember here is how difficult it is to forecast down to the exact mile where a storm will go. Thirty miles makes the difference of a storm staying off shore and having light winds and being on the weaker side and a direct hit with winds like force of bombs bursting onshore and blowing up structures and bringing down trees.
Remember that as I stated yesterday in the blog, Cleo was supposed to stay safely offshore and slide by the way Floyd did years later. It didn't. The smallest amount of degrees extrapolated over space can make all the difference.
Memories of Floyd come to mind. I watched from Haulover Beach as Floyd roared safely by to our East. The city had a hurricane day, every place was closed except for Kmart and the Beach. What's a chaser to do? Well, I did go to Kmart to buy more disposable cameras before heading to the beach. And I watched as every wave crashed onto the beach, sea foam dancing on the sand and we don't get sea foam in Miami. Each wave ripped and crashed onto the beach, the wind roaring, hair flying in all directions. One wave grabbed me, I threw the camera safely towards the beach and smiled. I also spent the next few days pulling sand out of various parts of my body; not regular Miami Beach sand, gritty, big particles of sand that had been ripped from the ocean floor and carried miles away and being carried miles northward. I was happy Floyd was not going to be THAT storm that would rival memories of Hurricane Andrew and the Great Miami Hurricane of 1926. Floyd was not a hurricane any one, anywhere wanted to hit except for fools and idiots. And, as much I love hurricanes I'm not fool... I prayed that storm would go safely out to sea.. away from Miami.
People always pray. Forecasters write forecasts.
It's only in the rear view mirror that we can see why something played out the way it did.
Craig Setzer did a great job this morning on Facebook going over the facts and he posted a good picture of why Florida needs to worry.
See the dip though in the Jet Stream coming down over NC that is a frontal boundary that will pull Isaac north on the west side of the Blocking Ridge to the East of Florida. Depending on the strength of the front, the timing of the front and where the Blocking Ridge blinks will set up Isaac's ultimate path and whether he will hover over Florida or whether he will slip by to the East..or even the West. It's all a matter of timing, hours, miles, barometric pressure and the slightest change can mean the biggest difference in the outcome.
REMEMBER... models change if the upper level winds change and depending on the storm.
IF he takes longer to develop, goes further west... the door shuts on a track to the East of Florida.
It's fluid and not easy to forecast.
This image is JUST a MODEL... not a post storm discussion.
Hard to say, hard to call...hits Miami dead on and goes up the state on it's way towards Carolina while gulping down the Georgia Beaches on it's way north.
Cleo was supposed to miss Miami by all calculations... it missed the calculations and marched up Biscayne Blvd. Fail for the forecast, win for Cleo, fail for Miami.
As for Tampa... you can release all the press releases in the world IF this storm pulls to the West or stays on track it will affect the GOP convention which will most likely have to be cancelled.. delayed. There is NO way they are going to carry on a convention with a hurricane raging outside, trees falling down, power going out, emergency personnel needing to respond from the "safety" of a Convention Center.. it's dreaming to think they can and whatever their Plan B is ... it's not happening IF Isaac has anything to say about it. Aside from the safety factor and the inability to get people in and out of Tampa or have major flight delays... it would be the worst publicity in the world to fiddle while Rome burned. With regard to Tampa.. personally... my family lived there back when... I don't wish it no harm just saying the truth here... if Tampa is in play the convention is not in play.
I was talking to Phil Ferro this morning on Facebook and he made the comment he hates August storms. so true, so tremendously true. They are harder to figure, cold fronts can be fickle and memories of other August storms dance in my head... Cleo, Andrew.
"High pressure to the north is keeping this system on a W/NW track, but by the weekend some models suggest that strong winds will veer out of the Southeastern USA. This will force the Bermuda high to move east, away from Florida, and force TD 9 to slow down. This slow-down will allow TD 9 to grow stronger, it could be a Cat 2 by then.
As the high moves away, it opens a door in the atmosphere for the storm to take, and unfortunately, some of the models place the storm CLOSE TO FLORIDA sometime next week"
"THE FORECAST REASONING FOR THIS WEEKEND HAS NOT DEVIATED TO A SIGNIFICANT DEGREE EITHER. THE DEEP RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN CLOSER TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS STILL BEING ASCERTAINED EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES PRESENTLY...WITH A HIGH PROBABILITY OF DEVELOPMENT CURRENTLY TAGGED TO THAT AREA. GLOBAL MODELS IN THE MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE ARE COMING INTO CLOSER AGREEMENT WHEN COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. THEY HAVE SLIGHTLY SHIFTED THE ROUTE OF THAT POTENTIAL SYSTEM...NAMELY FURTHER TO THE EAST AND LIFTING ITS POTENTIAL CIRCULATION VERY NEAR OR THROUGH THE KEYS SERVICE AREA. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY AND ILL- ADVISED TO DEFINITIVELY PEG SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS FOR THIS SYSTEM DUE TO A VARIETY OF FACTORS...SOME OF WHICH INCLUDE ITS CURRENT FORWARD SPEED AND SHEAR OVERHEAD ALONG WITH THE STEEP LAND MASSES IN ITS WAY BEFORE APPROACHING THE U.S. HOWEVER...SINCE THERE IS NOW GREATER AGREEMENT AMONG THE RELIABLE MODELS...HAVE UPPED OUR WINDS ACROSS THE KEYS AND SURROUNDING WATERS THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. BUT HAVE CAPPED OUR WINDS AOA 20 KNOTS FOR THIS ISSUANCE. OF COURSE...THIS IS SUBJECT TO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES ON LATER FORECASTS. STAY ABREAST OF THE LATEST ISSUANCES FROM THIS OFFICE AND THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IN REGARDS TO THE CIRCULATION CURRENTLY EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES"