GFS Pit Bull Style Locks Onto South Florida Landfall

TD 9 Soon to be Isaac

There is so much to say... I'm not sure where to begin.

Models

Read this link:
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/local/southflorida/sfl-1964-hurricane,0,6908074.story



The point to remember here is how difficult it is to forecast down to the exact mile where a storm will go.  Thirty miles makes the difference of a storm staying off shore and having light winds and being on the weaker side and a direct hit with winds like force of bombs bursting onshore and blowing up structures and bringing down trees.

Remember that as I stated yesterday in the blog, Cleo was supposed to stay safely offshore and slide by the way Floyd did years later. It didn't. The smallest amount of degrees extrapolated over space can make all the difference.

Memories of Floyd come to mind. I watched from Haulover Beach as Floyd roared safely by to our East. The city had a hurricane day, every place was closed except for Kmart and the Beach. What's a chaser to do? Well, I did go to Kmart to buy more disposable cameras before heading to the beach. And I watched as every wave crashed onto the beach, sea foam dancing on the sand and we don't get sea foam in Miami. Each wave ripped and crashed onto the beach, the wind roaring, hair flying in all directions. One wave grabbed me, I threw the camera safely towards the beach and smiled. I also spent the next few days pulling sand out of various parts of my body; not regular Miami Beach sand, gritty, big particles of sand that had been ripped from the ocean floor and carried miles away and being carried miles northward.  I was happy Floyd was not going to be THAT storm that would rival memories of Hurricane Andrew and the Great Miami Hurricane of 1926. Floyd was not a hurricane any one, anywhere wanted to hit except for fools and idiots. And, as much I love hurricanes I'm not fool... I prayed that storm would go safely out to sea.. away from Miami.



People always pray. Forecasters write forecasts.

It's only in the rear view mirror that we can see why something played out the way it did.

Craig Setzer did a great job this morning on Facebook going over the facts and he posted a good picture of why Florida needs to worry.



See the dip though in the Jet Stream coming down over NC that is a frontal boundary that will pull Isaac north on the west side of the Blocking Ridge to the East of Florida. Depending on the strength of the front, the timing of the front and where the Blocking Ridge blinks will set up Isaac's ultimate path and whether he will hover over Florida or whether he will slip by to the East..or even the West. It's all a matter of timing, hours, miles, barometric pressure and the slightest change can mean the biggest difference in the outcome.

REMEMBER... models change if the upper level winds change and depending on the storm.
IF he takes longer to develop, goes further west... the door shuts on a track to the East of Florida.
It's fluid and not easy to forecast.


This image is JUST a MODEL... not a post storm discussion.

Hard to say, hard to call...hits Miami dead on and goes up the state on it's way towards Carolina while gulping down the Georgia Beaches on it's way north.

Cleo was supposed to miss Miami by all calculations... it missed the calculations and marched up Biscayne Blvd. Fail for the forecast, win for Cleo, fail for Miami.

As for Tampa... you can release all the press releases in the world IF this storm pulls to the West or stays on track it will affect the GOP convention which will most likely have to be cancelled.. delayed. There is NO way they are going to carry on a convention with a hurricane raging outside, trees falling down, power going out, emergency personnel needing to respond from the "safety" of a Convention Center.. it's dreaming to think they can and whatever their Plan B is ... it's not happening IF Isaac has anything to say about it.  Aside from the safety factor and the inability to get people in and out of Tampa or have major flight delays... it would be the worst publicity in the world to fiddle while Rome burned.  With regard to Tampa.. personally... my family lived there back when... I don't wish it no harm just saying the truth here... if Tampa is in play the convention is not in play.

I was talking to Phil Ferro this morning on Facebook and he made the comment he hates August storms. so true, so tremendously true. They are harder to figure, cold fronts can be fickle and memories of other August storms dance in my head... Cleo, Andrew.

http://philfactor-phil.blogspot.com/2012/08/tropical-depression-9.html?spref=fb

"High pressure to the north is keeping this system on a W/NW track, but by the weekend some models suggest that strong winds will veer out of the Southeastern USA. This will force the Bermuda high to move east, away from Florida, and force TD 9 to slow down.  This slow-down will allow TD 9 to grow stronger, it could be a Cat 2 by then.

As the high moves away, it opens a door in the atmosphere for the storm to take, and unfortunately, some of the models place the storm CLOSE TO FLORIDA sometime next week"

So true.... and everyone should remember that it was a Cold Front that fell apart that was going to pull Andrew away from Florida towards Carolina, that and the high dug in and he intensified and got pushed west by the high pressure area straight into Miami.

What people need to remember is that the hurricane is being steered by the currents and NOT the other way around. That can change if a storm becomes a Major Hurricane and the high that builds a loft begins to become a factor in the steering currents.

Still too far away to say for sure BUT... when a storm is being written into a 5-7 day forecast it is becoming a "sure thing" and it's only a matter of miles which way the storm will go.

A miss is as good as a mile is the old saying, but... this should become a BIG, beautifully formed storm and big in size, big in strength and it's gonna take a lot more than a mile for this storm not to have effects on Florida.  The fronts were weak in August of 1992... the fronts this August have been strong. In fact, the last front made it all the way down to North Florida. And, the tug will be from the South going North... as Isaac will be South of Cuba when making that turn and it really has nowhere else to go right now but north. It could go NNW or NNE... or North and if it does it will most likely keep going straight up the Florida peninsular and towards other tropical ports of call along the East Coast.

Things can change, they always do, but if they do change it's not something we can see now ...

Now is the time to make a make a list if you live in South Florida or points to the north

Important papers should be put somewhere safe.. preferably scanned and sent to your email account.

Refill medication now before the rush on Friday....allergy, asthma, birth control, blood pressure, etc.

Make a list of items you need for your "hurricane supplies" 

Notify relatives where you will be staying.

Check your house for problem areas that need addressing.. broken windows, leaks you know exist.

Diapers if you have babies or children....stock up.

Stock up on toys that do not need power.............

First Aid Kit, refill it and make sure you have updated it to current needs.

Figure out how you will charge your cell phone.

Ye Olde Weather Radio... good luck finding a good one that works.

Buy water, sodas, juices, instant espresso drinks (trust me worth the money) 

I'm not being silly here and am not hyping the storm. There are plenty more waves out there behind this one that can and might affect South Florida later in September and October. Hurricane Supplies such as fattening cookies and such can be used up as school supplies or donated to a food shelter if the storm passes you by and prayers are answered. 

The difference behind "hype" and caution is a good knowledge of history and the awareness of what a hurricane can do if it comes to your house. 

It came to mine in 1992... I lived 3 or 4 blocks from the Ocean if you consider Flamingo Drive a street or count Indian Creek as a street.. We had no power for over a week, Publix was closed, trees fell down, sand was piled up onto Collins Avenue and the City of Miami Beach spent more time cleaning up the sand as fast as they could before the photographers who were down in Homestead could get over to the Beach to see the damage. Know why?

Conventions ...

The city was booked with conventions for the fall and winter...  tourism is the life blood of Miami Beach and they wanted to play down the damage in the media so the conventions would not be cancelled. 

Hmmnnn conventions. 

Tampa has not been hit directly by a big storm since the 1921 Tampa Bay hurricane, which was in October out of the Caribbean. They seemed a safe pic for the GOP Convention. 

http://www.docstoc.com/docs/71243855/Tampa-Bay-Hurricane-of-1921

Safe bets are best looked at in hindsight and I'm not much of a gambler. 

So... keep watching but if you live in Florida... sit down tonight if the GFS has not blinked and the forecast remains the same and think over what you may need to do and do it. 

That is not hype, that is being on the safe side.. you can always laugh back and say you prepared for the worst and hoped for the best and wasted a few hours of time that will leave you better prepared for September and October. Do NOT rely on El Nino to keep the hurricanes away ...

Speaking of Facebook... been living on Mike's site www.spaghettimodels.com the last several hours. That site is packed with anything and everything anyone needs...especially visual types who like to see the graphics more than just read long posts like I write :)  

Follow him on Facebook and Twitter:

https://www.facebook.com/pages/Mikes-Weather-Page/88134562366

Just really the most incredible site online... 

www.flhurricane.com 

www.hurricanecity.com

www.canetalk.com

All great sites... all...filled with great discussion and information. 

Keep watching... but the bottom line today is... with that much consistency going on with respect to model out puts ...if you live in Miami, the Florida Keys, WPB, Tampa, Naples and points to the north... take some time and go over your to do list.

One of my biggest concerns is that this storm is very well put together and for now beautifully stacked. Being vertically stacked is like being in tune with yourself. No war going on inside your body. Your head and your heart are working together... he takes energy in, he sends it out, he gets bigger and stronger and that shows in how fast he pulled together last night..as well as how dead center organized he is this morning. If that trend continues, the intensity levels will go up and we will have a Major Cane to deal with... possible.... in the realm of possibility and it only has one way to go... between the high pressure towards the low pressure and Florida is in it's way out of the Caribbean. 

Besos Bobbi

Ps... I was not kidding about that to do list. It's August... you should have had it done already.

From the NWS office in Key West:

"THE FORECAST REASONING FOR THIS WEEKEND HAS NOT DEVIATED TO A
SIGNIFICANT DEGREE EITHER. THE DEEP RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN NORTH
ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN CLOSER TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION IS STILL BEING ASCERTAINED EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES PRESENTLY...WITH A HIGH PROBABILITY OF DEVELOPMENT CURRENTLY
TAGGED TO THAT AREA. GLOBAL MODELS IN THE MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE ARE
COMING INTO CLOSER AGREEMENT WHEN COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. THEY
HAVE SLIGHTLY SHIFTED THE ROUTE OF THAT POTENTIAL SYSTEM...NAMELY
FURTHER TO THE EAST AND LIFTING ITS POTENTIAL CIRCULATION VERY NEAR
OR THROUGH THE KEYS SERVICE AREA. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY AND ILL-
ADVISED TO DEFINITIVELY PEG SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS FOR THIS SYSTEM
DUE TO A VARIETY OF FACTORS...SOME OF WHICH INCLUDE ITS CURRENT
FORWARD SPEED AND SHEAR OVERHEAD ALONG WITH THE STEEP LAND MASSES IN
ITS WAY BEFORE APPROACHING THE U.S. HOWEVER...SINCE THERE IS NOW GREATER
AGREEMENT AMONG THE RELIABLE MODELS...HAVE UPPED OUR WINDS ACROSS THE
KEYS AND SURROUNDING WATERS THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
BUT HAVE CAPPED OUR WINDS AOA 20 KNOTS FOR THIS ISSUANCE. OF
COURSE...THIS IS SUBJECT TO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES ON LATER FORECASTS.
STAY ABREAST OF THE LATEST ISSUANCES FROM THIS OFFICE AND THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IN REGARDS TO THE CIRCULATION CURRENTLY
EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES"