Atlantic Wave...

I'm going to focus here on the African Wave that is now making it's way into the Central Atlantic.

First Morning Visible... 

Helene has been kicked around enough and Gordon is sightseeing around the Azores. The system to watch for those of us in the Caribbean or along the SE Atlantic Coast is THE WAVE.

Officially it has a red circle with a 60% chance of development. It really has a better chance than that but the dust is kicking the heck out of it and the GFS model goes up and down as it has a love/hate relationship it seems with this wave.

Here's the GFS model, note though that there are variations of the GFS that show tracks bending more to the right. However, until it gets its act together the models will continue to take it further and further west. IF it develops, this too like everything else will change..

I'm going to say also here that several models take it up somewhere between PR and Cuba and start to gain latitude. Just have to see what the wave does. 

Again... it's traveling with dust, like the others... and there's more where this one came from... more waves, more dust.

Will be back later with any salient information. 

Discussion out of SAN JUAN is worth reading, I'm highlighting the parts that are the most important...or eye catching. 

Besos Bobbi

.DISCUSSION...THE LAST BAND OF SHOWERS MOVED THROUGH THE LOCAL
AREA OVERNIGHT BRINGING SPOTTY SHOWERS TO CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND
EASTERN PUERTO RICO. DRIER AIR...ALREADY OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...IS SET TO MOVE INTO PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING AND SHOULD
BRING SOME CLEARING. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE NOTICEABLY LESS
TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS STILL CARRYING MOISTURE JUST TO THE
SOUTH WHERE RIPPLES IN THE FLOW FROM THE EAST MAY BRING IT BACK
BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS. MOST OF THE SHOWERS GENERATED
FROM THIS MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE LIMITED AMOUNTS OF RAIN FOR THE
AREA.

MOST OF THE LONG RANGE MODELS DEVELOP A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
WAVE THAT WAS NEAR 35 WEST AT 19/09Z. BUT...BECAUSE THE CYCLONE HAS
NOT YET DEVELOPED THE WAVE IS ADVANCING UNIMPEDED ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC AND THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE CYCLONE MOVING THROUGH THE
LOCAL AREA EARLIER AND EARLIER. AT PRESENT THE GFS SHOWS IT MOVING
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS DEVELOPS IT
RATHER SLOWLY...SO WOULD EXPECT THAT IT WILL ARRIVE THEN OR
SLIGHTLY EARLIER. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE
TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM AND AFRICAN DUST STREAMING TO
THE NORTH OF THE WAVE IS LIKELY SLOWING THE DEVELOPMENT JUST AS IT
HAS THE LAST SEVERAL SYSTEMS THAT HAVE ENDEAVORED TO STRENGTHEN.
ALSO THE WAVE IN QUESTION APPEARS TO BE GROWING AT THE EXPENSE OF
THE WAVE AHEAD OF IT WHICH IT IS OVERTAKING. THEREFORE HAVE
INCREASED THE WINDS IN THE GRIDS AND THE POPS OVER A MORE GENERAL
AREA BEGINNING TUESDAY WITH THE EXPECTED PASSAGE OF THE FIRST WAVE
AND THEN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY USING THE CURRENT TIMING TO
INFLUENCE THE DIRECTION WITHOUT EXPLICITLY DEFINING THE CENTER OR
TRACK...WITH THE GENERAL IDEA THAT THE SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTH OF
THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO VEER NORTH AND TO
SPREAD DANGEROUS WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAINS ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE
FRIDAY...THEREFORE EVERYONE SHOULD REMAIN VIGILANT WITH REGARDS TO
THE PROGRESS AND DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS ALSO DEVELOPS
ANOTHER WAVE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND IT SHOULD PASS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SAHARAN DUST IS MOVING INTO THE AREA...KEEPING WEATHER CONDITIONS
MAINLY DRY AND HAZY.