Tropical Atlantic Goes Poof

We are down to 2 yellow circles, both with low chances of development. The math is not important here, the science is and the science says... too much dust in the Atlantic that is cruising west bound towards the Caribbean along with inferior waves and models that are not batting 100 when it comes to predicting cyclone formation.

The models shot off random storms last week near the West Coast of Florida, the Eastern Atlantic and New England... and nothing really happened.

On top of that, Ernesto moved into the Pacific and had a name chance and was christened Hector earlier today.

I rarely cover Easter Pacific storms, but this is too funny to be ignored. If there was a Reality TV Show for the Tropics... this would be the story of the week for sure. A wave that could never find it's groove finds it just hours before making landfall in Mexico, then goes on to kill 8 people and rather than dying it does better over land than it did over most of the Atlantic Ocean and gets reborn in the Pacific.

"THE LOW PRESSURE AREA PARTIALLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF

ERNESTO HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED AS INDICATED BY MICROWAVE DATA
AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES. ALTHOUGH THE CENTER IS STILL
DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...THERE IS ENOUGH CIRCULATION FOR THE SYSTEM TO
BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES EARLIER THIS MORNING. THERE
IS VERY STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR AFFECTING THE DEPRESSION...AND
CONSEQUENTLY ONLY A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED."

They always say real estate is about Location, Location and Location ...suppose tropical weather is too!

Note the loop below... it shows an STRONG PLUME of moisture coming north out of the Caribbean aimed at South Florida and areas beyond.  Worth noting for a multitude of reasons. 

http://www.intellicast.com/Storm/Hurricane/AtlanticSatellite.aspx?animate=true

The wave out near Africa didn't do much today, other than falling apart... so much for the models predicting a hurricane. Remember that next time someone waxes poetic on the GFS and the various ensemble models.... they are not always reliable.

TD7 also went poof today and then after the NHC issued a death knell discussion on it's chances of redevelopment being next to zero... it flares up again. Would say it almost looks better now than it did earlier, but will see how it does overnight.

A new wave is departing Africa that has been christened a "good wave" but to me... it's a weak looking wave lacking color. Perhaps we have forgotten what a GOOD WAVE looks like..... dark color, reds, purples, bigger than a circus tent, stronger than a rainstorm...able to withstand the problems with SAL and cooler water than needed to get a steam engine going.

Soooooooooooooooooooooo...am going to leave it tonight at this...

The tropics went poof tonight... well in the Atlantic Basin they did... the hot water is oddly up near New York

Keep watching.... something will pop somewhere. But, the energy in the Eastern Pacific will probably shut down the Caribbean for the next week... and help generate a continued South to North flow of energy towards Cuba and Florida.

Besos Bobbi
Ps I still think the area near the ULL and remnants of Florence in the Bahama is worth watching... weather is quirky and often unpredictable, that is why we are here trying to figure it out.

:)