Tropical Atlantic Goes Poof
We are down to 2 yellow circles, both with low chances of development. The math is not important here, the science is and the science says... too much dust in the Atlantic that is cruising west bound towards the Caribbean along with inferior waves and models that are not batting 100 when it comes to predicting cyclone formation.
The models shot off random storms last week near the West Coast of Florida, the Eastern Atlantic and New England... and nothing really happened.
On top of that, Ernesto moved into the Pacific and had a name chance and was christened Hector earlier today.
ERNESTO HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED AS INDICATED BY MICROWAVE DATA AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES. ALTHOUGH THE CENTER IS STILL DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...THERE IS ENOUGH CIRCULATION FOR THE SYSTEM TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES EARLIER THIS MORNING. THERE IS VERY STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR AFFECTING THE DEPRESSION...AND CONSEQUENTLY ONLY A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED."
They always say real estate is about Location, Location and Location ...suppose tropical weather is too!
Note the loop below... it shows an STRONG PLUME of moisture coming north out of the Caribbean aimed at South Florida and areas beyond. Worth noting for a multitude of reasons.
The wave out near Africa didn't do much today, other than falling apart... so much for the models predicting a hurricane. Remember that next time someone waxes poetic on the GFS and the various ensemble models.... they are not always reliable.
TD7 also went poof today and then after the NHC issued a death knell discussion on it's chances of redevelopment being next to zero... it flares up again. Would say it almost looks better now than it did earlier, but will see how it does overnight.
A new wave is departing Africa that has been christened a "good wave" but to me... it's a weak looking wave lacking color. Perhaps we have forgotten what a GOOD WAVE looks like..... dark color, reds, purples, bigger than a circus tent, stronger than a rainstorm...able to withstand the problems with SAL and cooler water than needed to get a steam engine going.
Soooooooooooooooooooooo...am going to leave it tonight at this...
The tropics went poof tonight... well in the Atlantic Basin they did... the hot water is oddly up near New York
Keep watching.... something will pop somewhere. But, the energy in the Eastern Pacific will probably shut down the Caribbean for the next week... and help generate a continued South to North flow of energy towards Cuba and Florida.
Ps I still think the area near the ULL and remnants of Florence in the Bahama is worth watching... weather is quirky and often unpredictable, that is why we are here trying to figure it out.