Florence Remnants 10%, 92 is at 80% & CV Wave at 20%

That means....if you do the math that we have a 110% cumulative chance of something forming in the Atlantic Tropical Basin.

Remnants of Florence = 10%
Invest 92                       = 80%
Cape Verde Wave       = 20%
_________________________

110%

See the circles:

Now, let's not look at circles and math problems and look at the satellite imagery:

Here's the loop:

http://www.intellicast.com/Storm/Hurricane/AtlanticSatellite.aspx?animate=true

Note the large, yellow circle with the orange circle in the middle is what is left of Florence NOT the Invest 92 which is the elongated white area with one little red dot in the middle. The S shaped area off of Africa is the new Cape Verde Wave we have been speaking about that the models are gaga over..

That's a meterological question NOT a mathematical one.

There is also a wave, upper level low closer to South Florida that Florence will follow... possibly into South Florida... whereas Invest 92 is forecast to go through the islands to the South of PR and the Cape Verde Wave would in theory follow it...though the GFS takes it UP into the dry, high and develops it which makes no sense to me but in theory I get it. Either way, if you don't like one set of models, wait til the next model out put.

The models have been off the last few days. A few days back they latched onto a wave over Africa and developed it into a hurricane crossing the Atlantic Ocean ....then they backed off.  They killed Ernesto off, they developed him, they killed him off...   In the short term they have been good (1-3 day forecast) and the NHC has been doing a good job adjusting, however... when there is a problem going on you  have to take them with a grain of salt.

Sadly, we have no real model output for the remnants of Florence which is closest to land, because there is no Invest....they took it off and we are supposed to play make believe that it doesn't exist.

I can't. It exists and it exists despite the most negative factors any wave has yet to suffer through and it's still there. In my experience, when you have a system do that you have to watch them carefully as they can be very sneaky and suddenly pop up and pull together when they hit warm water and lower shear. Note...Ernesto looked pretty pathetic himself, until he hit warm water and low shear and suddenly he was a hurricane.  Maybe Florence is a long shot, but it's a shot there is within range of South Florida and or the SE Coast so I can't pretend it's not there. Sorry.

As for 92... I have to see more.... more life.

As for the Cape Verde Wave... nice wave, has yet to prove itself over water so watching it carefully.

As for the area of convection over the Bahamas... I'll add, where trouble goes... troubles follow.

Models for Invest 92:

Reality Bites:






Meanwhile...expect the NHC to upgrade 92 to Gordon as they seem intent upon doing so and the models do "play" with Invest 92 and Recon is already primed to investigate the storm IF needed. Seeing as it is heading INTO the heart of the islands.... it will be needed.



A lot to watch out there............

The juice loop shows that the remnants of Florence have hooked up with warm, moist energy to it's SW and it is currently tapping into that energy enabling her to look so healthy for a remnant. Shows the problems 92 is having getting a "roll" going:



Lastly, the discussion out of the NWS for PR is telling:

"LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO VEER EAST SOUTHEAST AS THE REMNANTS OF FLORENCE PASS TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARM TO HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. A
DRIER AIR MASS WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND WILL
COMBINE WITH AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE PATTERN TO PRODUCE FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS WITH MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...INVEST 92L IS FORECAST TO
PASS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING...BRINGING
A FEW PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS WITH HAZARDOUS SEAS
OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS."

The discussion out of Key West sounds almost sexy in comparison... "a low level undulation" hmmnnn sounds like someone is partying on Duval Street.

"GIVEN THE ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE...A LOW LEVEL UNDULATION WILL PASS WESTWARD

AND THROUGH OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH
A MID LEVEL VORTICITY LOBE PROVIDING LARGE SCALE LIFT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING."

Lastly....really lastly... Miami Discussion


"
DISCUSSION...THE TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND FORECAST BRANCH OF NHC
ANALYZES A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM EASTERN CUBA SOUTH INTO
THE CARIB. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD BYPASSING
THE LOCAL AREA TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER, SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AND CONVECTION OVER AND EAST OF THE BAHAMAS.
THIS IS ASSOCIATED ON THE DIVERGENCE SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
AND GFS/ECMWF SHOW AN INVERTED TROUGH AMPLIFYING AND MOVING ACROSS
SOUTH FL FRI-FRI NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE..."

Oh.... Miami may have to deal with a SAL outbreak next week... again where SAL goes the storms go, it's a pattern, a track in the atmosphere.... 

Down the road.... if this pattern continues we will have to watch the tropics carefully as this is the pre-season not the height of the season.

If a frontal boundary comes down and a developed storm smells it...it will pull north. If the high builds in...it will go west... 

A lot of IFs... a lot of circles... a lot to think on..

Expect Gordon to form soon...

Besos Bobbi