Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Monday, August 06, 2012

Ernesto Pulls it Together, Should Make Hurricane Status before Landfall.

Last Visible Image of the Day:

Note the "dot" blowing up dead center in Ernesto's heart:

Go Ernie Go!!

As predicted earlier in the week by many models and forecasters... Ernesto ramped up in intensity as soon as he slowed down and reached really warm water. A vastly different image for this storm from the way he looked last night. But, as I said earlier in the week he has a history of pulsing up and down frequently and if he met the right conditions he might become a hurricane. The right conditions suddenly existed and voila... Ernesto is looking more like a Hurricane than a Tropical Storm. Either way he is definitely a contender for the Hurricane Title and he will most likely become a Hurricane before landfall.

My one complaint is that he still looks like half a storm when you look close up, but that's really nit picking. In honesty, he's looking good.

Water Vapor


Nice signature on the visible satellite ... rounded, curved bands and what appears to be an eye like feature trying to peak out before he rams into Belize and the Yucatan Peninsular.

Aside from the change in intensity it is worth noting that around the same time Ernesto pulsated up and became stronger he also changed directions ever so slightly and he has continued doing so all afternoon.  It may seem a minute difference, however even a matter of degrees over time make a big difference in landfall and in this case a more WNW track keeps Ernesto over warm water longer where he can maintain his sudden growth spurt.

 PMStewart18A08/06 2:00 AM15.0N79.9W50MPH1003mbW at 13 MPH (270 deg)TSErnesto08/06 1:44 AMBrennan1908/06 5:00 AM15.1N80.5W50MPH1003mbW at 12 MPH (275 deg)TSErnesto08/06 4:47 AMBrennan19A08/06 8:00 AM15.2N81.0W50MPH1003mbW at 12 MPH (275 deg)TSErnesto08/06 8:08 AMPasch2008/06 11:00 AM15.8N80.5W65MPH994mbWnw at 9 MPH (285 deg)TSErnesto08/06 11:02 AMPasch20A08/06 2:00 PM16.2N81.1W65MPH996mbWnw at 12 MPH (290 deg)TSErnesto08/06 1:59 PMPasch2108/06 5:00 PM16.2N81.6W65MPH995mbWnw at 12 MPH (295 deg)TSErnesto08/06 4:47 PMPasch21A08/06 8:00 PM16.5N82.1W65MPH995mbWnw at 12 MPH (295 deg)TSErnesto08/06 7:38

He went from 270 degrees at 2AM to 295 degrees at 8pm ... if this continues they may have to change the direction from WNW to NW... as always, time will tell.

The government of Belize has issued HURRICANE WARNINGS meaning they expect to have the effects of a Hurricane not a Tropical Storm. Good call ... as things look now.

I imagine at 11 PM the NHC will upgrade Ernesto to a Hurricane. Hard to say, they may want to see continued, consistent growth as he has had a history of being inconsistent.

The other thing worth mentioning with regard to Ernesto is..he slowed down because he hit the edge of the high and that also allows him to move more poleward than previously. How much remains the question.

In weird weather news... South Florida has an increased flow of tropical moisture as the Upper Level Low in the Gulf of Mexico and the once yellow circle over Northern Florida (that is still kicking up weather) is drawing moisture off the top of Ernesto and funneling it up towards South Florida. In direct effects maybe, but it ups the tropical moisture mess in Miami even more than normal.

This can be seen if you follow the blue dots from the top of Ernesto up towards Tampa.

As for Flo... she is a ghost storm out in the Center of the Atlantic, a little dot in the center and what is left of her circulation only visible on water vapor imagery. She is still there...give or take...though we are pretending she isn't however ........if she reforms she will come in much further to the south and west than she would have if she had remained strong and had become a Cane. 

Last track from the Navy site that was still tracking her earlier this evening shows how far west she would get.

As a weak wave Florence will get further west than she ever would have gotten as a Tropical Storm or a Hurricane. So, everyone better hope she stays weak and does not reform or Florida and points north up the coast could have a problem. Either way at the moment...she is ghost like but still out there. Once that little dot of convection hits warm water... it is possible, though not probable, that she could come back to life.

Further east, off the coast of Africa, we have another yellow circle as the wave train has started and the Cape Verde Season is officially open.

The NHC gives it low chances for development and it will have to deal with the same suspects that did Flo in... however... Flo did take a bite out of the dust and each wave makes a wetter path for the next wave so... keep watching.

IF you are enjoying pina coladas in a cute tiki hut in Belize tonight... get inside and prepare for a Hurricane tomorrow. And, if Ernesto continues to feel the urge to go north and ends up going NW than he is going to take a bigger chunk out of Cancun than previously thought and we may have to drag out those old "what ifs" of him getting up into the Gulf vs down in the BOC or dying out over Central America.

Besos BobbiStorm
dreaming of sipping wine at sunset
in Belize ;)
with Ernesto knocking at the door. . .


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