TD5 Weak but Hanging in there...

As you can see from the image above... TD 5 is having some problems. Mostly, a strong layer of shear is there that is wreaking havoc on the newly formed tropical depression.



It is worth noting that the models that loved this wave did not show strong development for a few days. This might be one of the situations where "if" it survives it will thrive.

Note the discussion out of the NHC: "UW-CIMSS AND SHIPS ANALYSES INDICATE 20 KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR...

ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH...AFFECTING THE
CYCLONE. THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A CONTINUATION OF THIS SHEAR OVER THE
DEPRESSION THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ESPECIALLY"  

What they mean by "especially" is a long paragraph basically reminding the readers that historically that area in the Caribbean is not a healthy environment for developing tropical systems. John Hope from the old TWC days used to call it the "graveyard of the Caribbean" for Tropical Storms. The rule of thumb being that IF they didn't develop into strong storms before that area ...they most likely never made it. Or, I will add, make it down the road south of Jamaica or in the Yucatan IF the water temps are strong enough and the shear is low enough. A lot of IFS.

IF............it takes the WNW route.... it has a better chance. Not always, but usually. 

At the moment there is a lot of shear and a lot going on and although TD5 is flaring up nicely again this morning it needs to do more than flare up to become Ernesto.

Keep watching especially if you are in an area from Trinidad north to the Virgin Islands with special emphasis on place like St. Kitts. Barbados and all the beautiful sounding names of those Lesser Antilles parts of calls..

Besos Bobbi

Ps...Officially no change in track from the NHC...they still have it going low and maybe developing into a strong storm in 4 or 5 days... with a real emphasis on "maybe"