Tropical Depression #5 - - - so many questions...

As of 1 AM on Thursday Morning there are more questions about Tropical Depression #5's path than there are answers. 

Models take the storm into the Caribbean on a low track missing the turn to the WNW and NW that many such storms take. As a matter of fact, the last few waves took that track so I am having problems understanding why the models dismiss the path of the last 2 waves and move the probable Ernesto into the heart of the Caribbean aiming his fury at Jamaica rather than moving further north.

My bigger question is what happened to TD5 tonight? Dry air has become entrapped in the system. It doesn't look very healthy. You can barely find it on some satellite imagery. Then again, often weak systems wax and wane late at night and we should see in the morning just how strong it is... or isn't.

Models have been sticking with it... 

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2012080112&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Doesn't look all that well right now... time will tell.

Note, if he takes the northern end of the forecast package it would be a totally different ballgame and not talking about Jamaica Mistaka...

Stay tuned...