Officially Miami Tropical Wave... S FL... Yellow Circle
Well, that yellow circle went up rather quickly, a "special tropical weather outlook" was issued as wind reports of over 50 mph came in from several parts of the South Florida, Florida Keys area.. They didn't even wait until 2pm.
Models are great predictors of tropical development ...however you shouldn't have to wait until you see trees bending out the windows before you put up one measly, yellow circle. But, will give them credit, they did decide to issue official information on it that ups the attention level of the average person in the South Florida area.
Friends told me all morning how windy it was and is... wind at the ground level, not just rain but strong winds. There's a very tropical feel to the air this morning in South Florida and the Keys.
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1040 AM EDT SUN JUL 22 2012 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... 1. A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS IS PRODUCING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. A WIND GUST TO 53 MPH WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT FOWEY ROCKS FLORIDA...AND DOPPLER WEATHER DATA INDICATE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE HIGH AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...SO ANY ADDITIONAL ORGANIZATION OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BRING PERIODS OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER STEWART NNNN
Small evidence of a possible system forming, though pressures are high...though they can drop and the GFS and other models are "hinting" at something trying to form or a weakening of the ridge at that point over the next few days..