Florida Tropical Wave
Well, the Cuban Wave just became the Florida Wave as it moved it's way predictably WNW into the Florida Straits.
Nice blow up visible on satellite imagery. Remember, the water temperatures are highest in the Florida Straits and through that region.
Now remember something... it's not organized. For now it is just a big, blob of rain.. but anything that close a populated region bears watching as it will create misery during the day and there is always the chance something can develop down the proverbial road.
The NHC isn't a lot of help on this one. All they will say publicly is:
Nice but no cigar. They seem to have developed a new philosophy, culture there of not discussing anything until it becomes totally cyclonic... and unless you can decipher the Tropical Atlantic Discussion ...which I can but most likely you cannot...they are passing everything off to the NWS to breakdown as "local weather" and really that is no acceptable in my opinion. The local weather in Raleigh showed the wave down near Florida and highlighted it in their quick look at the tropics, they felt it was worth watching.. but no the NHC is on automatic this summer and they are not updating their page even for a zero% chance... hmmmmnnn....
Some discussion, even a little discussion on why it has a low chance or no chance would be appropriate during the Hurricane Season when people look to them for information not the NWS as they might a winter front south bound in December.
This is ...by the way...one reason I love www.spaghettimodels.com it covers the tropics and it's a rich source of information always... especially when TWC is showing taped segments during live, strong, severe weather events and the NHC is silent.
There is this rich dialogue out of the NWS office in Key West. Hope you understand it:
THE APPARENT INVERTED TROUGH FOUND IN THE ANALYSIS YESTERDAY...HAS BEEN EXPOSED TODAY AS A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH. THE EVIDENCE IS IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH THE VORT LOBE OVER THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. IN ADDITION THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE IS TILTING A BIT TO THE NORTH WHICH IS RESULTING IN A SUBTLE INCREASE IN WINDS OVER THE STRAITS AND HAWK CHANNEL. WITH THE ADDED SPEED CONVERGENCE...LIFTING ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE TUTT..
There you go....they "found" an inverted trough in yesterday's analysis....
....in Melbourne's always excellent discussion the NWS is dealing with the same area and calling it a "Tropical Wave" rather than the detailed, meteorological term Inverted Trough, etc..
TONIGHT...TROPICAL WAVE FEATURE TRACKS INTO THE SOUTH HALF OF FLORIDA. KEPT SCATTERED STORMS ALONG THE COAST AND SOUTHERN OSCEOLA AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTIES WHERE THE MOST MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS KISSIMMEE NORTH OVERNIGHT WHERE THERE SHOULD BE LESS LIFT BUT STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. CONSIDERING IT WAS 81F AT 2AM AT THE OFFICE...UPPER 70S FOR MONDAY MORNING LOWS LOOKS REASONABLE. MON-MON NIGHT...TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO TREK NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE PENINSULA. DEEP MOISTURE AND SOME VORT ENERGY ENHANCING LARGE SCALE LIFT OVER REGION. THIS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AN INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...WITH 60/70 POPS AREA WIDE WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED SCATTERED STORMS.
WSVN's blog says this about that:
The dust they are talking about is visible in this image as soaking up all the rain the way a miracle sponge would do if you could find one to clean your kitchen... good luck, I don't think they market Saharan Dust Sponges yet...
A voice of reason and knowledge is Phil Ferro who reminds us that Tropical Waves are fickle and anything heading in our way... deserves attention. He is so right. Attention means of course you pay attention to it. You would think the NHC could have at least given it a meager yellow circle with a Zero Percent Chance for those people who do not know how to surf the web, read my blog or go on Twitter looking for information.
Read more: http://www.wsvn.com/weather/blog/posts/MI95715/#ixzz21MHrIrXR
Back to BobbiStorm here...
The dust does a great job, but the dust begins to thin out on our side of the Atlantic so sometimes these waves go under the radar as if they have some cloaking device (called Dust Camouflage) and when they get into the Bahamas or cross over into the Gulf of Mexico they have a slim chance of developing.
Enjoy the day.... go play somewhere or stay home and play... but whatever you do, enjoy today and check back tomorrow..
Ps...note how dry the Atlantic is...those little blue dots are what is left of big Cape Verde Waves that exited Africa into the dry, dusty Atlantic.