Well, the Cuban Wave just became the Florida Wave as it moved it's way predictably WNW into the Florida Straits.

Nice blow up visible on satellite imagery. Remember, the water temperatures are highest in the Florida Straits and through that region.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-avn.html

Now remember something... it's not organized. For now it is just a big, blob of rain.. but anything that close a populated region bears watching as it will create misery during the day and there is always the chance something can develop down the proverbial road.

The NHC isn't a lot of help on this one. All they will say publicly is:

TC Activity

Nice but no cigar. They seem to have developed a new philosophy, culture there of not discussing anything until it becomes totally cyclonic... and unless you can decipher the Tropical Atlantic Discussion ...which I can but most likely you cannot...they are passing everything off to the NWS to breakdown as "local weather" and really that is no acceptable in my opinion. The local weather in Raleigh showed the wave down near Florida and highlighted it in their quick look at the tropics, they felt it was worth watching.. but no the NHC is on automatic this summer and they are not updating their page even for a zero% chance... hmmmmnnn....

Some discussion, even a little discussion on why it has a low chance or no chance would be appropriate during the Hurricane Season when people look to them for information not the NWS as they might a winter front south bound in December.

This is ...by the way...one reason I love www.spaghettimodels.com it covers the tropics and it's a rich source of information always... especially when TWC is showing taped segments during live, strong, severe weather events and the NHC is silent.

There is this rich dialogue out of the NWS office in Key West. Hope you understand it:

THE APPARENT INVERTED TROUGH FOUND IN THE ANALYSIS YESTERDAY...HAS
BEEN EXPOSED TODAY AS A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH. THE
EVIDENCE IS IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH THE VORT LOBE OVER THE
SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. IN ADDITION THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE
ATLANTIC RIDGE IS TILTING A BIT TO THE NORTH WHICH IS RESULTING IN A
SUBTLE INCREASE IN WINDS OVER THE STRAITS AND HAWK CHANNEL. WITH THE
ADDED SPEED CONVERGENCE...LIFTING ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE TUTT..


There you go....they "found" an inverted trough in yesterday's analysis....

....in Melbourne's always excellent discussion the NWS is dealing with the same area and calling it a "Tropical Wave" rather than the detailed, meteorological term Inverted Trough, etc..

TONIGHT...TROPICAL WAVE FEATURE TRACKS INTO THE SOUTH HALF OF
FLORIDA. KEPT SCATTERED STORMS ALONG THE COAST AND SOUTHERN OSCEOLA
AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTIES WHERE THE MOST MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS
KISSIMMEE NORTH OVERNIGHT WHERE THERE SHOULD BE LESS LIFT BUT STILL
PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. CONSIDERING IT WAS 81F AT 2AM AT
THE OFFICE...UPPER 70S FOR MONDAY MORNING LOWS LOOKS REASONABLE.

MON-MON NIGHT...TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO TREK NORTHWESTWARD OVER
THE PENINSULA. DEEP MOISTURE AND SOME VORT ENERGY ENHANCING LARGE
SCALE LIFT OVER REGION. THIS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AN INCREASED
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...WITH 60/70 POPS AREA WIDE WITH
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED SCATTERED STORMS.

WSVN's blog says this about that:

http://www.wsvn.com/weather/blog/page/1/

The dust they are talking about is visible in this image as soaking up all the rain the way a miracle sponge would do if you could find one to clean your kitchen... good luck, I don't think they market Saharan Dust Sponges yet...

A voice of reason and knowledge is Phil Ferro who reminds us that Tropical Waves are fickle and anything heading in our way... deserves attention. He is so right. Attention means of course you pay attention to it. You would think the NHC could have at least given it a meager yellow circle with a Zero Percent Chance for those people who do not know how to surf the web, read my blog or go on Twitter looking for information.

Stormy Sunday?

Posted by Phil Ferro

As we head into the weekend, we could see the return of hazy skies as more African dust is expected to settle in. We may get a stray shower or storm on Saturday but by Sunday more rain could move in. The second half half of your weekend will offer wetter weather. Sunday may be hot, humid, and stormy due to a tropical wave located over Cuba. This wave is headed our way. Keep in mind, tropical waves are very difficult to forecast, they are fickle and unpredictable,so rain chances are in place if the moisture behind this tropical wave holds.

Read more: http://www.wsvn.com/weather/blog/posts/MI95715/#ixzz21MHrIrXR

Back to BobbiStorm here...

The dust does a great job, but the dust begins to thin out on our side of the Atlantic so sometimes these waves go under the radar as if they have some cloaking device (called Dust Camouflage) and when they get into the Bahamas or cross over into the Gulf of Mexico they have a slim chance of developing.

Keep watching...

Enjoy the day.... go play somewhere or stay home and play... but whatever you do, enjoy today and check back tomorrow..

Besos Bobbi

Ps...note how dry the Atlantic is...those little blue dots are what is left of big Cape Verde Waves that exited Africa into the dry, dusty Atlantic.