Convection & ULL Off Coast of Carolina... and Cousin Sal in Miami

The only thing worth looking at in the Atlantic Basin today is the ULL off the Coast of the Carolina, due East of Florida in that same tropical incubator that gave us Beryl and Alberto.  I do not expect tropical development, however I do expect a lot of color on the satellite imagery and a lot of rain along the Carolina beaches... possibly Georgia...

Note the ULL in this Water Vapor Image off the coast of South Carolina and note the moisture below off the coast of Florida.

Interestingly the moisture that usually lingers over South Florida has been swept away and it's getting caught up in the swirling Upper Level Low to the NE. Watch this loop and you can see it played out. If you are in South Florida today, take a walk on the boardwalk... sip a drink from the ocean side restaurant behind the Ritz-Carlton and enjoy the view. The moisture has taken a bus for the Coast of Carolina.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-avn.html

Here's the discussion out of Savannah, one of my all time favorite cities to do nothing in but soak in the flavor of the city itself, a beautiful place if you have never been there.. a must see.

".NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

NO CHANGES NEEDED WITH THIS FIRST UPDATE OF THE MORNING. RADAR
SHOWS POP UP SHOWERS RIGHT OFF THE BEACHES FROM ISLE OF PALM TO
KIAWAH TO OSSABAW ISLAND...WHICH SHOULD MOVE INLAND AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES. I PUT OUT A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT MENTIONING THE
CHANCES OF WATERSPOUTS DUE TO FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS...BUT NO REPORTS AS OF YET.

OTHER THAN A SPOT OR TWO...WE NEVER REALLY SAW MUCH IN THE WAY OF
GROUND FOG THIS MORNING. THAT WILL BE REMOVED FROM THE GRIDS AT 7 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PRETTY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THIS PERIOD. A CLOSED MID/UPPER-LEVEL
LOW LOOKS TO MOVE INLAND FROM THE ATLANTIC TUESDAY BEFORE WEAKENING"

 If  you go to the Myrtle Beach information, another fun place,  that will experience possibly severe weather today due to the proximity and movement inland of the Upper Level Low that is swirling off shore...visible on radar.

".NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...GRADUAL MOISTENING OF THE COLUMN TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LOW MAKES ITS CLOSE APPROACH TO THE COAST FROM
THE EAST. THIS UPPER LOW WILL COME IN PHASE WITH AN H/5 TROUGH
TRANSITING FROM THE WEST...THEN WILL DIVE SOUTHWEST ALONG THE
COAST AS IT COMES UP AGAINST STRONG UPPER RIDGING OVER EASTERN
CONUS. AT THE SURFACE WE WILL SEE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL
PATTERN...WITH A PIEDMONT TROUGH STRENGTHENING INLAND AS A BERMUDA
HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED OFFSHORE.

EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF CLIMATOLOGICALLY-CORRECT TEMPERATURES AND
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION STARTING LATE THIS MORNING
AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING"

My point I suppose is oddly there is a lot of rain caught up in the Upper Level Low that is reaching the ground, yet the dust that is shutting down the Atlantic Hurricane Season currently is at very high atmospheric levels. Odd? Maybe? Not sure... seems strange.

"Cousin Sal" dressed in red moving towards a date with the Bahamas and South Florida.

Again.................the season has been shut down NOT by the developing El Nino BUT BY THE AFRICAN DUST that has sucked all of the tropical moisture out of the Atlantic Basin. There are other complicating factors but the main factor in the Atlantic is the African Dust.

My friend Ken, who writes for the Sun-Sentinel, brings up an interesting point. The dust is at a high level, not expected to dump itself on cars in the Hollywood Florida area as it so often does. It still is a problem for people with breathing problems, anytime the dust is near however it's higher up than normal. Interesting. 

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/weather/fl-weather-week-20120715,0,5641907.story

Yup cousins can sometimes be a pain in the neck, other times they are your best friend and your partners in crime.In this case, "Cousin Sal" is doing his thing and the waves have not been able to develop. Sort of like a really good hitter coming to bat, but not as good a hitter as a great pitcher not letting the ball make contact with the bat. Score one for Sal. 

Note the wave off of Africa that everyone on TV was gaga about has hit the dust... the dirt, dying in a cloud of African Dust, choking it off at it's roots... unable to breathe it is just slowly withering away.

As for me, gonna play today. Gonna go to one of my favorite places, have a healthy snack, sip some good local coffee brew and write a bit today. Take a ride, watch the world fly by and gonna worry on the tropics tomorrow. As for cousins, there's an old saying "Man plans, God laughs" and imagine that applies here somewhere.... then again my father used to always say...with a chuckle... "God has a funny sense of humor."  Time will tell... 

Song for the day: One of my all time favorite songs... I so love this song.

Besos Bobbi

Ps.. "sun and the moon seem to acknowledge each other" "his heart was a low country heart" "African drums..." "the bulldozers bury the past" "while fortune plays on borrowed days in their alligator shirts, now I realize who killed the Prince of Tides" incredible song ...... "history was there for the taking" JB who loves F. Scott Fitzgerald understands how the spoils go to the rich and the rich feel they can do anything they want to do... even if it means buying up the sunrise.  

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z4znyqGIWH8

Gotta click to hear the song...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daufuskie_Island

Bonus track... another great Jimmy Buffett song... 

"Diamond as big as the Ritz, whatcha gonna do with it

A blessing can become a curse if you keep it to yourself...

....the prophecy of the unattainable dream"

"every day he lives in fascination"

"Whatcha gonna do with this, tell me whose gonna save you...

....when you're a slave to the diamond as big as the Ritz"

great fusion there...FSF and JB...

sweet tropical dreams................

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iXvJzPRE2jY