Miami Watching Disturbance Offshore, Ernesto stronger and Cape Verde Wave is a WOW

In real estate and in journalism ...location is everything.




As there is an Invest on the Navy site of the system off the east coast of Florida... that begs more attention than a weak, Tropical Storm west bound causing strong rain in the Eastern Caribbean.

Also note... and there is no discussion on that... yet another wave is about to exit Africa, which would make four possible systems we are watching by this weekend.

http://www.intellicast.com/Storm/Hurricane/AtlanticSatellite.aspx?animate=true

Something is going on there, what I am not sure but it is compelling and anyone from Florida to the Carolinas should keep their eyes on it. As much "fun" as it is to have a named storm and advisories, it is far away and the Cape Verde Wave is further away. This is just offshore and in an area that has historically given us TWO named systems this year so far.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-wv.html


There appears to me as much weather in the system in the Bahamas that has a "yellow circle" from the NHC as there is from Ernesto. Keep watching... worth watching... don't take your eyes off of it just in case. The last thing we need while going into a Summer Weekend is for people to be worrying about Ernesto in the Caribbean and an African Wave while the wolf is at the door jimmying it open while no one is looking.............

Meanwhile to the South... Ernesto is moving along at a fast clip and he is pulling it together. That would be a problem for the followers of the GFS model that keeps it so weak it almost kills it off. If he maintains strength and in fact strengthens then we have to give more emphasis to the models that bring it into the Gulf of Mexico as a Hurricane. The last two nights he fell apart and then pulled it back together in the morning. IF Ernesto keeps himself together tonight, maybe those models that predict him becoming a Major Cane in the Gulf know something the GFS does not...

The discussion out of the NHC shows a "low confidence" forecast:

 NEEDLESS TO SAY...THIS IS AN UNCERTAIN FORECAST.

ERNESTO CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST OR 275/18.   THERE IS NO
CHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THE
CYCLONE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A FAST EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE ON
A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  AFTER
THAT...THE RIDGE WILL PROBABLY WEAKEN SOMEWHAT...CAUSING ERNESTO TO 
SLOW DOWN AND GAIN A LITTLE LATITUDE.  HOWEVER...TRACK MODELS HAVE
A LARGE SPREAD IN THE LONG TERM WITH LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE
STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE. 

Time will tell... keep watching


Further EAST.... out by Africa is the Cape Verde Wave of the season... looking good, dressed currently in orange and it already has something going on there... a mean look, a serious look ... something to watch down the road. Early models take it west, it begins to gain latitude and then stops and bends back..........hmmmmnnn making everyone in Florida and the Carolinas go hmmnnn.

Water temps show that Ernesto is sitting over warm water and the water in the Bahamas and the adjacent Gulf Stream are way warm enough to support development, if pressures drop and it comes together before making landfall...



Good blog always, but especially when something is close in or threatening the South Florida area:

http://philfactor-phil.blogspot.com/

My bottom line?

Hard to say... IF Ernesto manages to keep his head when all about him is messy.... he will most likely lift more to the north than the GFS has him lifting and if he does, he can very possibly become a hurricane in the Gulf.  Shear is forecast to lessen down the road, water temps are warm and he is slowly building a CDO and developing bands.... the edge of the high will "probably" allow him to begin to turn more to the north and slow down.... south of the Western Tip of Cuba... from there, where he goes is everyone's guess and everyone is guessing. Many are still thinking he will just go west and slam into Belize and die a fast death... if he even makes it that far. To me... he's a fighter, he has come back several times and is a consistent sort of storm and when dealing with tropical cyclones consistency is everything.

The area off the coast of Florida MUST be watched...most likely it won't become anything but would you bet money on that? Doubt it. AND....IF ...it did develop... might it not influence Ernesto's path in some way. Hmnnnn there is something to think on...

As for the Holy Grail of Tropical Weather Forecasters... the "perfect Cape Verde Wave" is it the lead wave or the one about to exit Africa? Time will tell...

Got a bumper crop of multi-colored circles and it's hard to believe that the CV wave won't go red very soon... that's a mean, lean fighting machine.

Stay tuned... keep watching.

www.spaghettimodels.com is a tropical smorgasbord of visual delights. Love that site, Mike does an amazing job... gets better and better.

www.canetalk.com and www.hurricanecity.com are great as is www.flhurricane.com which is where I hang out as LoisCane ;)

So much to do... still recuperating from the wedding and unpacking and watching a 3 ring circus in the tropics.

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

Bobbi