Ernesto is a Mystery Tonight, Florence Far Out and Heavy Rain in Miami

Going to talk right now on Ernesto as he is the storm that most likely will affect land and possibly even affect some part of the Gulf Coast in the long range. Unless it falls apart, which the GFS did hint at a while back, it will hit land somewhere as a named storm... possibly a hurricane.

There is a big discussion raging tonight as to what is going on with Ernesto. Hurricane Hunters sent back data that would support a weaker storm than what appears on satellite imagery. He went WNW not West over the last several hours... or "relocated himself" ....

This storm pulsates up and down so often he is moving faster than a mambo dancer on a hot date at midnight.

There is always a reason for something, and if something does not make sense... it's usually because you are missing part of the equation.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-wv.html

The truth is Ernesto is at a very close point to the Guajira Peninsula. I've seen other storms that are usually a big lower, but that the interaction inhibits moist tropical air from feeding the storm from the South. Again, this is the "graveyard" of the Caribbean where storms are concerned and those that make it through this region and hang in there...usually pulse UP when they are over warmer water and further away from the South American coast. Mind you this is my own two cents, I have not read it anywhere....however.... it affected other storms and if you look carefully you will see part of the storm's far away bands are over land... not a great set up for a tropical storm that needs a hot, moist energy source. Also, South America has been usually dry and there is a massive dry spot the size of a black hole over the Amazon and there have been few storms flying off into the SW Caribbean which is unusual. Everything is linked to something else...  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guajira_Peninsula

12 hours ago Ernesto's Water Vapor Image:

Notice he was stronger before and he had more inflow channels set up .... now fast forward to the current image:

Notice that nothing much has changed, if anything the dry air to the west of Ernesto looks lighter and not as dark. The storm also looks not as strong, however there is no moisture coming into the storm from the South and his bands look less defined.

Shear is relatively the same as is the temperature of the water feeding the storm.

Note though that the water where Ernesto is currently is about as cool as it is going to get. That said, he should be pulsing up again soon... if he does not...there is something about this structure that might be "coming undone" however... I don't see that right now but you never know with storms like this...

He is currently in the lighter orange vs the hot corals and tangerines to his north NW and he did pass over a warmer area yesterday...

Just a funky sort of storm... a good example of how different each storm is and how complex tropical forecasting is. And, many tropical mets with more knowledge than me are scratching their head tonight and going to bed hoping to understand this storm better tomorrow.

Let's leave it with that and show the current track and model forecasts. Note though that there is an ULL coming together in the Gulf of Mexico to his NW which may have an influence on him later on down the line.  Some models are showing a bend to the north as he reaches the end of the High that is steering him... others continue his track west ignoring that influence.

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv.php?inv=0&t=l12&region=ea





So far it is worth noting the NHC has done a kick ass job with this storm... let's hope this continues.

Next: Florence... our lovely Cape Verde Storm.

Note the dry air to the north of Flo... notice the healthy long tail to the south feeding her and notice the odd leash like band out to the west... looks like some other worldly creature that looks similar to an octopus coming together.

Florence may end up being funkier than we originally thought. Easy to write off as a Fish Storm, however models indicate there may be some dips and turns in her path. Remember, the further west she gets, the slower she goes, the weaker she is... the greater chance she has to affect the US vs swimming out to sea.

Going to bed for now... and will see what we will see in the morning...

Note... the system off of Florida is still there, however nothing is happening worth mentioning other than it being a murky, humid day in South Florida which is par for the course in August.

http://www.wsvn.com/news/articles/local/21008172286024/storms-dump-hail-cause-flooding/

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
125 AM EDT SUN AUG 5 2012

.AVIATION...
AN INVERTED TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO THE NE GULF OF MEX AND OVER N
FLA AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NW AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES MOVES
FROM THE ATLC ONTO AND ACROSS CENTRAL FLA. A DEEPENING MOIST E TO
ESE WIND FLOW WILL BE OVER S FLA THROUGH THE PERIOD. VFR E COAST
TAFS AND WILL HAVE VCSH THRU 15Z ESPECIALLY AT KPBI AND AT A LATER
TIME OTHER E COAST TAFS WITH BRIEF MVFR CIG/VSBY POSSIBLE. AFT 16Z
VCTS E COAST TAFS POSSIBLE BUT DEVELOPMENT OF TSRA POSSIBLY WELL
INLAND FROM E COAST AND AT THIS TIME WILL NOT BE IN KFLL TAF.
SURFACE WINDS CALM TO E-ESE < 10 KNOTS BECOMING AFT 12Z 10 TO 15
KTS. AT KAPF VFR THRU PD WITH VCTS IN TAF AFT 20Z THAT MAY MOVE
OVER KAPF DUE TO EASTERLY STEERING WINDS. SURFACE WINDS ESE < 10
KTS BECOMING A W COAST SEA BREEZE WSW-W 10 KTS AFT 17Z.

Stay tuned........................look what's west of Florence.............more trouble down the tropical pipeline.

Sweet Tropical Dreams....

BobbiStorm

Ps... music for looping:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UTkVYSqM148

Note that ironically the derecho in the Midwest looked bigger than Ernesto today... briefly... it's not about looking wild and red and fading away fast... it's about consistency and Tropical Storms are often long trackers.... but it is funny....  night...