Weak Ernesto Westbound Is He Coming Undone? Florence a problem down the line?
A lot to say here today and yet mostly conjecture and some innuendo. A lot of intangibles in the tropics today and even more tomorrow. Possible problems down the line IF Florence holds it together.
Looks more like a Wave Axis at the moment than an organized Tropical Storm...
First let's deal with Ernesto as he is in the Basin we watch more carefully and more likely to affect land if he holds it together until he hits warmer water.
Problems with Ernesto:
Dry air becoming a problem in all areas, but mostly from the South and West of the storm... which hurts the storm as that will kill a storm faster than almost anything. It comes in from the West and South and gets sucked up into it's engine and well ...the car basically sputters, stops and needs fixing.
He is also becoming unstacked, meaning his forward speed is enabling the center to out run the convection. Let's put it this way... if you streak at the Oscars... you get arrested for disturbing a scene and other various charges... Ernesto is streaking west and leaving his clothes floating in the water behind him...
Forward speed is too fast and he is coming undone
Music for looping:
Check out this loop and you will see the disintegration of a Tropical Storm. For that matter, you can see the moisture getting sucked out of Florence to the east of Ernesto.
If this trend continues he will at best stay together as a Depression until he hits warmer water and possibly ramp up a drop prior to landfall in Central America somewhere. At worst, he could degenerate into an "open wave" if this trend continues.
The GFS model did raise this flag earlier in the week but... the forecasters went with other scenarios and in my opinion are erring on the side of caution and being over generous with their five day forecast. Then again, models have it going up into the Gulf still.............and affecting the US which is hard to buy at the moment but possible if it ramps up fast again into a strong storm.
Hard to ignore that many models taking it north... then again some models take it into the Pacific.. perhaps Ernesto is an overachiever after all....
The Official forecast is...............
As for Florence............ she's interesting, though equally as weak in ways. She's dealing with dry air on the north side as well as out ahead of her. She's moving slower. Where Ernesto has always gone west... she's going WNW and doing it slowly. If you she takes the southern part of the forecasted model track there could be trouble ahead for the East Coast... as fronts are coming down and this week in fact a cold front is supposed to come in and lower the temperatures nicely. If the next few fronts come down this far south and the high stays tight... might be a problem down the road. All it will take is a few bends back to the west for her to stay far enough south for her to be a problem and not be a fish storm.
Looks weak currently, almost dried up in the middle of the ocean. Then again, Andrew once looked worse... and hung in there... will Florence hang in there or come undone?
And lastly............the Noname storm that hit North Florida.. mostly rain like Alberto but I find it interesting that it is raining over the exact same area that Alberto and Beryl rained in... something to think on down the road. Fronts, strong high.... weak storms west bound like Florence can sometimes become storms that hit anywhere from Florida to Cape Hatteras.
Again.... Florence like Ernesto has to stay together and not Come Undone...
Keep watching, enjoy the weekend.... it's a birthday weekend for my son who is here in town and a big birthday. Going to kick back, relax, enjoy and diet tomorrow ;)
I'll be back later as events unfold....
Ps... if you can read this online and if you are somewhere you can buy a copy... buy one, enjoy.. great story on Hurricane Hazel.. one of those long trackers that didn't swim away.. Might be worth remembering that Hurricane Andrew in 1992 was at one time expected to head towards the Carolinas (like Betsy in 1965) but the front fizzled and it had stayed weak under a strong ridge, barely hanging in for most of it's trip west across the Atlantic.