Hurricane Ernesto Makes Landfall - Models & Waves

BELIZE RADAR INDICATES ERNESTO HAS MADE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN COAST...

That's the official line from the NHC... as the image above also shows. Packing 85 mph winds and looking better than he has ever during his whole life time in the Tropical Atlantic. Go figure, he picks NOW to ramp up and pull it together. Nice structure, banding, outflow and even the hint of an eye on some satellite imagery. There could not be a worse time for Ernesto to intensify than at landfall. You can see how put together Ernesto finally is on the image below.

However, it's not a very populated area where he is making landfall. Tourists nearby in resort cities should be safe in their hotel rooms with a night to remember. You never know for sure how these storms play out and we will know for sure in the morning whether Ernesto was kind or not. 

Some background on the general region of Chetumal from Wikipedia and a few nice images from a webcam that was posted on www.flhurricane.com earlier today.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chetumal,_Quintana_Roo

http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/animator.php?136

As for Florence, you can see she is still there hanging on as red dot in the middle of the ocean. This worries me, worries me more than Invest 92 that is at the far right of the image above. Any storm that can hang on despite horrible conditions, a sea of dry air and a wall of shear as well as marginal water temps needs to be watched until there is not a dot or drop of convection there for well over 24 hours. Most likely it will die off and disappear, but until that happens remember that it's out there struggling to stay alive.

Further East...is a wave known as Invest 92 that has an orange circle from the NHC which is akin to a good housekeeping seal. Not exactly a top seller on Amazon but it's their way of saying "yes, we see it... it's looking better, we know, we know"  and it is.......has some sense of banding tonight and a pocket of moisture, however it's got a difficult road ahead of it. And, it's moving slowly and riding with the same bad friends that Florence hung around with...namely Saharan Dust. But, it's got a nice pocket of moisture for now. To misquote Marlon Brando, it wants to be a contender..

On the "juice loop" it doesn't look that great...  even though it does have the orange circle on the NHC front page.

Loop the loop and look for yourself:
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/natl/anim/latest72hrs.gif

Notice how Florence comes alive after crossing 50W yet Invest 92 looks iffy suddenly. That can change, probably after it reaches 55W. Watching............always watching.



Models take it west... some begin a WNW movement further down the road, but a strong westward movement is indicated.

Now...if you live or die by the models...the real game player has not left the coast of Africa. Models are really playing with the next wave to come off of Africa.

Loop the GFS and see what it shows ;)

Talk on taking your breath away... oh my goodness.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2012080718&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

"Hmmmnnn" as a friend of mine says often..............

THAT is what you call having a "low pressure system attached" and that is what the GFS is showing developing and making it across the ocean. That also is coming off Africa dead center where it needs to be to be the perfect Cape Verde Storm.  Senegal...

So.... yes, the wave train has left the coast... and it's going to be a pretty good season despite all the talk of El Nino and the end of the world in December of 2012. That's a gorgeous wave and it will look better in a day or so... keep watching it. The GFS is watching it and you know we all watch what the GFS watches.

Great reading if you can't fall asleep and want to dream of the sound of the wind and the rain from Ernesto far away causing  mischief in the Yucatan, read the storm reports from this site below:

http://stormcarib.com/reports/current/belize.shtml

Always great reading, move around and get a real feel for what is going on in the Caribbean.

And, as always.... keep watching the tropics. Never turn your back on a storm. Never say it's over until it's over and watch those Cape Verde Waves that go west, wnw and then come up over the islands at Florida and the East Coast beyond Florida.  And, never take your eyes off sneaky ghost canes that don't want to die in the middle of the Atlantic and who want to be a contender...

Sweet Tropical Dreams

Bobbi
Ps... there is a possibility that Ernesto made landfall at 90 mph, they are trying to get the exact wind speed now... as the rest of us go to sleep, the people at the NHC work on and on and on, watching the storm, getting all those details right.

Dr. Rick Knabb ‏@NHC_DrRickKnabb

85 mph is operational estimate, pending post-event analysis. RT@itsalleternal: @NHC_DrRickKnabb - Intensity at landfall was 90 mph?

Retweeted by GregNordstrom

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