Ernesto Regroups, Wet Wild Atlantic Filled with Waves

Ernesto has regrouped faster than anyone thought he could, looking not bad after spending the day crossing the Yucatan. Due to continue heading west....

The Tropical Atlantic is now FILLED with wet waves and tropical storm wannabees. A low pressure trough is in the Caribbean and creating shear for the remnants of Florence as she keeps kicking up her red heels and trying to dance on water. The area known as Invest 92 now has a 50% chance and a bright orange circle as it also tries it's best to pull itself together and get brownie points and a red circle from the NHC. And, further east there is a Cape Verde Wave that has not yet left the starting gate waiting to take it's chance in this tropical ballet.

Note the strongest area of convection is still over Africa, however let's see how this wave swims when it hits the water and the dry air that has plagued the waves that came before it. The models still support development, however it has backed off on the intensity from last night. That makes more sense to me as I don't see what has dramatically changed in the area to support the development it was showing. Will see what the next run brings...


Reliable GFS: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2012080818&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Even odder... the Canadian model forms a system off the west coast of Florida... due west of around Naples and takes it into the Panhandle/Big Bend area as a named storm. Go figure..in about 96 hours from moisture seemingly near the Yucatan (unless that's from one of the waves) and heads towards landfall ...

Crazy Canadian: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2012080812&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Look how much moisture there is tonight in the Atlantic and Caribbean compared to just two weeks ago when there was barely a cloud anywhere.

At 96 hours the HWRF shows a small, barely formed system... TD status possibly heading west through the Caribbean near the Yucatan and then it falls apart for no apparent reason (other than the Graveyard of the Caribbean Ride at Disney) so...

Models for 92 are as follows tonight:

Obviously, like most systems like this, it turns north....or it doesn't.

Models basically play mind games with us, several times a day and the best way to handle them is to sit back and wait for the next one, wait for a trend to persist and watch the wave.

With so many contenders out there... something is likely to pop again this week... will it be 92 or the new wave, who knows... keep watching.

Meanwhile, Ernesto may go west into the Pacific Basin at this rate and have some name change in his future.

The close up pic of the night is Invest 92 from the Navy site, note Florence has been removed from the line up..

I want to mention a few things tonight... things to think on..

The water off of the Carolinas is very, very, very HOT.. unseasonably hot and there have been storms in that area swirling around now for days. It is possible something could a) form there or b) be drawn there if something forms in the Bahamas from one of these westbound waves.. note the formation potential chart below verifies what I have been thinking for the last two days.

Also, with cold fronts making it down to the Raleigh-Durham line... in early August.. it is possible down the road with a strong high for a storm to maintain it's westward movement and be drawn up towards a front that could in fact fall apart and open up a door for either an Andrew like set up where the front looks like it's going to pull it NW and then the high builds in ....OR.... it gets pulled north towards the front and moves into SC or NC as the front weakens...   a lot of possibilities down the road if waves keep coming ....and they will.

http://www.wunderground.com/MAR/atlm.html

On that note... where is El Nino?  A slowly forming El Nino would usually have set up negative conditions for Ernesto and given higher than normal shear ...whereas just the opposite happened as shear lessened. Am a little skeptical of El Nino's arrival on the scene anytime soon... or at least to the degree that he will make difference to the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

The biggest problem for waves is still SAL.

The best "roll" on the Juice Loop tonight is still Florence, however they have dropped her down to Zero Chance/Yellow Circle because of the shear to the west of her.

Keep watching... the waves are rolling and visions of hurricanes dance in the head of trackers and chasers everywhere.

Sweet Tropical Dreams
Bobbi

ps... from www.spaghetttimodels.com