Quick Note on African Wave & Dust & Rain in MIA
Has a very nice roll on the "juice loop" which shows a nice circulation...however it lacks convection.
The Saharan Dust that is due into the Miami area will come in on the same winds that brought this batch of heavy rain. What the NHC will do about this is still a mystery to me, organized wave, circulation, modeling and no rain... the dust is strong out there still. And, the orange circle with 20% chances to develop as of 8pm is barreling straight into the dust... go figure.
Note the discussion from the NWS:
"AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED OVER WESTERN CUBA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS AND INTO THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS OF THE CWA. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS ALSO LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WHICH IN TURN PUSHED A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC WATERS SOUTHWARD TO THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. THIS HAS ALLOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE WEST INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY SUNDAY...AS THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH MOVES WEST INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. AT THE SAME TIME...THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALLOWING FOR THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS TO DRIFT BACK NORTH INTO THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL KEEP THE STEERING FLOW IN A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTION ON SATURDAY...BEFORE GOING BACK TO MORE OF A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION ON SUNDAY. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL ALSO KEEP THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER THE CWA THIS WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS."
SAL aka Dust Loop: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/splitE/movies/splitE5.html
NOTE: If and when the dust subsides... we in Miami are in the flow for more tropical weather as the season ramps up. Keep watching and thinking on that while you are looking up at the rain fall this weekend. If nothing changes, we will get organized rain in the form of something tropical. Unless something big changes.
Sweet Tropical Dreams