Miami Hurricane History Lesson.. King, Cleo, Donna... Is a Hurricane Isaac Next?

This image is of a frame from the GFS model that shows a dead on hit on the Miami Metro Area.

Mind you that can change and most likely will... it's hard to hit a target from so far away. It can go wide right or wide left or some variation on this track.

But, it does make you think on other similar storms that have hit Miami directly.

Current Image of a Navy Invest most likely to be a TD soon and ISAAC down the line.



Again, currently this storm is not yet named...has not yet become Isaac though it's a process that is playing out in real time before our eyes online, on Twitter, on Facebook. The 5pm News in Miami will highlight the possibilities and the TWC has hyped the storm so much that they now have a BIG QUESTION MARK directly sitting over South Florida and the name ISAAC in big letters.

So...without hype, but with a touch of history I'd like you to look at 3 other similar storms that did hit Miami and ... remember that right now it's not a Cat 1 or a Cat 2 or a Cat 3.... it's not even a Tropical Storm and it is far away but...............it is moving in our general direction and the GFS model has drawn a bulls eye over Miami on the last few runs. See image at the top of this blog.

Our current tropical wave has reminded many of Hurricane Cleo... and Hurricane King as both were direct hits on Miami... Cleo was an Atlantic storm from a Cape Verde Wave like this storm is... and the same time of year. Donna was your classic Cape Verde Hurricane that went up over the islands and took aim on Miami and then............unlike many others...........curved back and continued on a rampage up the Eastern Seaboard. Many people remember Hurricane Donna... not just Miamians. Hurricane King who landed on the same spot as did Cleo formed in the Caribbean and has many more differences. Still, it's a good storm to look at and remember the role crossing Cuba does or doesn't play in a storm headed north towards Florida.

So, while watching gloom and doom reports from people everywhere about the possibilities of Isaac, who is not yet Isaac, destroying South Florida... you might want to read up on a few storms that were similar that did a tremendous amount of destruction and left Miamians with memories that made them pay a little more attention the next time a storm formed in the Caribbean or the Atlantic Ocean and took aim on Miami.

Some comparisons and differences below.

Oh...and the current GFS loop to keep in mind while reading the hurricane history compiled below:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2012082012&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

That would show the yet unnamed storm doing a blend of Donna and Cleo...

NOTE.. it's still very far away.............things will change in some way, still until it has passed safely offshore or to the south... do not take your eyes off of it. And, I won't mention how Hurricane Betsy did pass us by in 65... and came back and hit us in Miami after we thought it had left us for good.

In 1950 Hurricane King hit Miami, it was however a storm coming out of the Caribbean that had lots of running room. It was already an intense storm, but a small storm and the last hurricane in a busy hurricane season.  When Hurricane Cleo hit Miami 14 years later, all the newscasters on air compared it's track to Hurricane King so although  it was way before my time... I remember the stories well.  Another important thing about Hurricane King is that it disproves the theory that Cuba will break up a Hurricane headed towards Florida. Every case is different, but it's a lesson we should learn and remember.  Depending on how fast and the size of the storm itself... Cuba doesn't always break up the storm. And, after it hits Cuba the problem is the storm hits some of the warmest, no hottest water in the Tropical Atlantic. And, many storms including King have ramped up BEFORE hitting South Florida AFTER leaving Cuba behind in the tropical dust. Hurricane King in 1950 was a good lesson, we learned it again in 1964 with Hurricane Cleo.

Change the track from the east side and not from the Caribbean and you'd have a similar track. Note... the smallest variation and the storm would have easily slid to the East of Miami on it's way to South Carolina and never looked back. Tropical Meteorology is a very fluid reality show.

Note quotes below that are taken from Wikipedia:"Within twelve hours, Hurricane King crossed central Cuba, during which it maintained its intensity. According to the Atlantic hurricane database, King intensified further over land to winds of 120 mph (195 km/h);^[1] however, Hurricane Hunters indicated maximum winds of only 100 to 105 mph (160 to 165 km/h) by the time the hurricane emerged into the Florida Straits. At the time, the barometric pressure was 988 mbar, and the eye was 20 miles (32 km) in diameter. The hurricane quickly intensified as it turned north-northwestward. In 24 hours, the pressure dropped 33.2 mbar and the eye contracted to 5 miles (8 km) in diameter. On October 18, Hurricane King made landfall on downtown Miami, Florida. The city's Weather Bureau office, which was struck by the eastern eyewall, recorded sustained winds of 122 mph (197 km/h) with gust estimated at 150 mph (240 km/h).<sup>[2]"

Again... remember... King barely had time to burp before moving on to South Florida for a main course.

Note King was a SMALL STORM whereas Isaac might be a HUGE storm size wise if it fills up it's envelope of moisture it is traveling with.... Note this is 2012 not 1950 and the NHC was fooled by the small size of King and what seemed to be a lack of intensity, prior to sats and models so Miami wasn't as prepared for King as it would have been today. Indeed, the eye of King was only 6 miles wide as it crossed downtown Miami.  Also, because it was such a small storm there were less places directly affected in Cuba to send info to people in Miami (before Castro) and so information was not the best even though some information was received in Miami. Small storms can be tricky. The storm was so small that in Florida's Hurricane History by Jay Barnes he compares the size to "a large tornado" with a path of damage "7 to 10 miles" from Miami and Miami Beach NNW through Opa Locka and West Broward.  Unlike most storms that hit the DOWTOWN MIAMI area, downtown Miami took the brunt of Hurricane King. The new suburbs to the west out Coral Way and Bird Road barely felt it's fury. 

GREAT VIDEO:</sup> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sIqLmI_Mmq0

Salient point... Hurricane King in 1950 money totaled 8 MILLION Dollars. Big dollar loss for such a small storm that hit with deadly force directly on the Downtown and surrounding areas.

But... it came up out of the Caribbean and was a late season storm... not an August storm or an August storm that acts like a September storm.

King was similar, but different.

Fast forward to 1960, radar imagery is available and they learned many things about forecasting in the decade of the 1950s.




1960 Hurricane Donna hit Miami and was considered to many to be the most perfect Cape Verde Hurricane Track.....up over the islands. The problem with that track  is they do not do a tango with Haiti and they stay far away from Cuba... they usually follow the high and hit with it's full force intact and it is the most feared scenario...usually. Andrew was one of many, so was the Great Miami Hurricane of 1926...though I am sticking here with storms that formed in the modern era, post 1950.

1926... up over the islands...



1960... Classic Hurricane Donna...up over the islands.



Some of the best video I've seen about hurricanes, so much has changed... so much remains the same. Please watch:

<sup>http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kiQPzzy-NTg&feature=relmfu  (great video, long, enjoy a MUST WATCH)

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/outreach/history/#donna   
The above link gives the story straight from the source... the NHC official reports. 

Some online information and images of Donna:</sup>

^{Wonderful image:} 
Great site online to use... I do often, as I love reading and learning Hurricane History.

http://www.hurricanehistory.org/resources/Hurricane-Donna.html

Worst case scenario for the GOP would be this happening again...

A few models take "Hurricane Isaac" to the GOP Convention in Tampa... as an unwanted delegate so the above image is a good one to think on...^.


Next we move further into very tropically active 1960s to the year 1964 to Hurricane Cleo.

<sup>Cleo would be the storm most similar to Isaac...should Isaac grace us with his upgrade and follow the GFS track assigned to him.

Scary image below from a great online site www.storm2k.org. 



Hurricane Cleo was a late August Storm that followed almost the same track that Isaac is forecast to travel. Cleo traveled through the Northern Islands, staying south of Haiti/DR and turning north up across Cuba and headed towards South Florida. Same time of year. Similar track. 





Early images of a disturbance off of Africa that became Hurricane Cleo, much like our current Cape Verde Wave were first seen, on August 18th. The Navy sent planes in a few days later on the 20th.. it was a faster mover than our storm has been as it crossed Guadeloupe on the 22nd. Cleo tasted blood in the islands when 14 people were killed, thousands were left homeless and many injured. Storms that "taste blood" in the islands like Hugo and Cleo...often become...well storms like Hugo and Cleo up the road when they make landfall a second time.  Cleo was a much stronger storm than the GFS forecasts Isaac to become as it was 140 mph with a pressure of 28.05. All in all .. despite how bad it was, Guadeloupe got lucky in that Cleo did not ram into them with that much force. The Hurricane Hunters suffered damage and there was no recon scheduled for a good 24 hours and remember that was in a time when satellite imagery was sketchy at best. Mind you they thought it was great at the time, nothing compared to now when you can click on links on your cellphone while stuck in traffic. 

From Wikipedia with associated link to the accident itself:

"</sup>Offshore Puerto Rico on its initial penetration of Cleo on August 23, a Lockheed WC-121N Super Constellation used as a reconnaissance aircraft experienced its port wing tip fuel tank and portion of wing torn away by extreme updraft turbulence, which injured six of its crew. While trying to exit the storm, the starboard tip tank and larger portion of wing were torn away by extreme down draft turbulence. The aircraft was damaged beyond repair"

^{http://aviation-safety.net/database/record.php?id=19640823-0}

Early indications are that this storm is a similar storm... a good analog in ways and so it's worth remembering things can change fast from when a storm is weak in marginal conditions in the Atlantic ...conditions that have killed off similar waves... and how it *could* look later down the road after it hits a positive environment.

In the Dominican Republic Cleo took more lives, it than moved on to Haiti. Thankfully Haiti took such a large bite out of it that it never regained it's previous fury. Good thing for Miami and Cuba which were next to see Cleo make landfall.  In an article in the Miami News ... Cleo was said to have marched up Biscayne Blvd as if it was marching  in the Orange Bowl parade. 

The problem was Cleo was forecast to miss Miami and stay off shore much the way Hurricane Floyd later marched by on it's way north.  Twenty miles as the crow flies is not that far for a hurricane to change course, ramp up or ramp down, go west or east, or wobble a bit... too close for comfort.  It had crossed Cuba as a weak hurricane on August 26th (Isaac may do the same) and recon found a weaker storm than what was obviously there. There was in fact a false sense of security in Miami that Cuba would break it up as it was no longer the big storm that had hit the Caribbean Islands a few days earlier. Everything is relative and while it was not a Cat 3... a Cat 1 can ramp up fast over very hot water in the Gulfstream between Cuba and Miami...and Cleo did. She also took a mean bounce when coming off of Cuba, and I can remember to this day Bob Weaver being concerned about how storms sometimes do that when they "bounce" off of Cuba.  Bob Weaver, the best Weatherman we had in Miami in those days was good at being cautious and keeping his viewing public informed and ready to deal with any possible storm. Bob Weaver was pretty much the ONLY source we had in the days before TWC, CNN, Accuweather, NHC's texts... pick a forecaster, Bob Weaver was it and he was good. We watched, we learned, we listened. Well I did... I was young, very young but not so young that I do not remember. I can't tell you what I ate for dinner that day, but I can remember the image of Cleo headed this way after leaving Cuba and the look of concern on Bob Weaver's face. And, Bob Weaver kept reminding us how warm the water was that it was crossing....and he was right.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ONzwg_P-U60  Cleo video on youtube.

What will happen with Isaac I can't tell you, but I can tell you the reason we study history and study storms in retrospect is to learn from them.

IF Isaac maintains this track... Miami and cities north of Miami and yes...Tampa need to stay on top of it.

The weakness of our current Invest, wannabee Isaac has kept it moving West. It avoided the ULL to it's NW that was flirting with it and trying to pull it in that direction. There is a lot of moist, air in the Gulf of Mexico and draped across Florida and hurricanes are low pressure systems that move towards other low pressure systems and away from high pressure on the most basic level.  The current Atlantic Ridge is weakest around Florida and a little move this way or that may save Miami from it's date with Hurricane Isaac and the current image from the GFS will be something we will laugh at the way we laughed at the busted model forecasts for Hurricane Debby to destroy Miami in 2000. It didn't, yes we have learned a lot but trusting any model this far out is foolish. Ignoring such a reliable model as the GFS is also foolish.

Stay tuned... and please watch the old videos, they are educational, enjoyable and still very relevant in many ways.

Besos Bobbi