Where's Isaac? Polka Dot Maps... Tampa is now watching..

Lying in bed watching the Steelers teach Andrew Luck a thing or two about experience vs learning on the job.  And, the NHC is decorating my computer with various colored dots strung out from Mexico to the coast of Africa and the Azores.

First and most relevant for people on the Eastern Seaboard...including Tampa not just Miami... there is a red circle with an 80% chance of development and the Navy site has a track up this evening so I would expect it to be upgraded to Tropical Depression Status shortly.

This is important because if this system is as good as gold and sparkles as much as the models imply it will become at some point a Hurricane and make it's way across the Atlantic Ocean.  The last GFS model took it just off of Tampa in the long term... would make for an interesting convention... but never, ever rely on a 10 day forecast from a model before a storm has even formed. Still that last mode run woke up a lot of people with homes on the West Coast of Florida. Miami and Key West and points north along the coast are already watching this system. The Islands are also watching it closely to see if it takes the low route vs curving NW somewhere. 

It's a tough call because the high is currently set up that there would be a small weakness around that point where I could see it gain latitude around there. Then again...most models take it through the islands before possibly turning north so... the islands better watch out. And they are..

www.stormcarib.com  <---- GREAT SITE for your Caribbean concerns..

As for the hype level in Miami... my brother called me tonight, wanted to know what I thought. Of course, he sees all storms hitting Miami always... but as there is chatter on the airwaves and as we smell a long, tracking Cape Verde Wave headed this way all of us Miamians sit up and pay attention.

Close to home for those living in Texas...is the problem of models suddenly bringing remnants of remnants of Helene together and having a reunion in the Gulf and swimming off towards Houston and other similar ports of call. Odd...but true, and there  is a Yellow circle in the Gulf for that reason. Or it could go west like Ernesto who became Hector. Keep watching.

There is another wave before the lead wave... strange look to the lead wave tonight, like it's angry that no one is paying attention. The wave that most likely will be Isaac...unless another polka dot steels the name.. the way the Steelers just stole the ball from Andrew Luck.

Looks almost like Woody the Woodpecker meets Pinocchio!

The point here is tonight.................the wave should be upgraded tonight, if not tonight they are going to wait for the first visible images tomorrow (well that's what they always say ...wink wink) and wait and see what the next GFS model run spits out later this evening.

Has a nice roll going on:

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/natl/anim/latest72hrs.gif

Only real problem I see that may make them wait (as it's still far away from the Islands) is that a new system looks to try and be forming or passing off energy ... this happens sometimes with stretched out tropical areas ...and this Invest has been stretched out. One of those things you just got to wait and see and watch it play out...  now that would be one heck of a wrinkle to the models. 

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/flash-rgb.html

I love tropical weather, always in a state of flow... love football... love being able to loop satellite loops and watch football at the same time :)

Keep watching... can't wait to see what the NHC does or doesn't say and can't to see what the GFS thinks... 

www.spaghettimodels.com is one great site... and it's not even fattening, best spaghetti on the Internet :)

Oh... and watching the Twitter Feed as always... love listening to what the mets in the islands have to say..  https://twitter.com/BobbiStorm  <---- Follow me and send me a note with your thoughts.

And, yes I will talk about Andrew.. later this week. 20 years ago... we were watching Andrew, me and my best friend... non-stop watching but we had to wait for Bryan Norcross to come on at 5 and at 6 when he did his EXTENDED LONG DISCUSSION and we listened to the weather radio and random comments on the news... because in those days we could not go online and watch loops or satellite feeds and hit "play" on the models... We went by gut feeling, news on TV and people worrying there had been THREE Mango blooms that year... something that old timers said was something to watch ... then again... my kids ate a lot of mango that year and it might have been just some crazy old wives tale but ... maybe not.  And, got to tell you.. if you are gonna eat mangoes, you should taste them from the old Mango trees in the 41st Street area that were from the original Collins groves on Miami Beach that were protected by the pine trees on Pine Tree Drive that were put in just for that reason..to protect his investment..  and the grapefruit tree around the corner at my mother's house... wow...  Then again the house on the west side of my  mother lost one heck of mango tree... came up from the ground and took the whole BBQ patio with it..   Maybe later this week I'll post some pics of what Miami Beach looked like after Andrew... from the 41st Street area..   signage from 41st Street was half way down the block between 40th Street and 37th Street on Sheridan... bits and pieces of signs everywhere the morning after. 

Yup.. lots of memories. Maybe I'll dig out the pics and scan a few and put them up online.

Keep watching that wave train coming off of Africa.. 

Sweet Tropical Dreams..

Ps...the sound of the wind whipping and whining through those pines was awesome at the height of the storm.  Lifted the roof off of a house on Flamingo Drive and 37th and dumped the roof into the pool of a house on Pine Tree... whoosh...