11PM No Named Storms...

No named storm tonight... just watching the Invest and waiting to see what tomorrow brings. Red Circle, 90% and a comment that Tropical Storm Watches for the Leeward Islands "could soon be required"

Models:

Interesting discussion out of NWS San Juan. They are calling for their area to have heavy rain on Thursday from the Invest. 90% chance of heavy rain.

NOTE... a great looking circulation with very little convection, that could change fast if it hits warm water and loses some of the dust.

My thoughts after reading the very detailed discussion out of Key West tonight.
1. It's not good to be on the west side of an eroding high pressure zone..
2..Water real warm between Cuba and Key West.
3.. Looks like someone needs to go start lighting candles at the grotto.
4.. Watch www.stormcarib.com for more local info
5. Check www.spaghettimodels.com one more time before I go to bed..........


http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=KEY&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

"THE MAIN

AXIS OF AN UNUSUALLY DEEP FULL LATITUDINAL TROUGH IS SITUATED FROM
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SOUTH SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF
COAST. A DEEP MID TO UPPER RIDGE IS ORIENTED FROM NEAR 35 NORTH 50
WEST SOUTHWESTWARD TO ACROSS EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH A UPPER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.
A SURFACE FRONT IS UNUSUALLY FAR SOUTH AND PRESENTLY EXTENDS FROM
THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT SOUTH SOUTHWEST TO ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TO NEAR 90 WEST. THE FLORIDA KEYS REMAIN
ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF WEAKENED ATLANTIC SURFACE RIDGING CENTERED AT
25 NORTH AND 60 WEST."

Sweet Tropical Dreams...
Ps if anyone is reading this tonight in Key West...or tomorrow ... please go light a candle for me.

http://www.keywestcatholicparish.org/Grotto.html