Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Wednesday, August 22, 2012

Tropical Storm Isaac at 11 PM... Looks Incredible... Like a Scorpion..

Okay to me it looks like a scorpion. My grandmother grew up in Tampa, she was terrified of scorpions as they would hide in rock houses and trim and bite people and well... you know....

Look at Isaac 12 hours ago... more messier and the top NE part of him is squashed, looks funny. These are subtle changes but they say a lot.

The reason I like this loop...even though there are fancier ones is because it is easier for me to see the changes over time.  You can toggle between 12 hours ago and the current image. 

The centers seem to be coming together... also the front to the north does not look as strong or colorful as it did before.

The Upper Level Low over Cuba is dying out... that may help it as well.

Loop the loop and continue slicing and dicing the storm with me .. please..

Funky Green Dot in the center of the Funktop Image showing Issac is becoming centered, has long arm like bands that stretch out to the North and South... he is far enough south for now to miss land and the Eastern Graveyard seems to do well for him..  Air in, Air out. Can see what he might look like as a hurricane ... 

He has been lacking convection.. considering he carried dust with him a long way...
I think we can understand where he has been and forgive him

Where is he going?
I know you are wondering that?
It's the 64 trillion dollar question...

I think for now we can safely say... West.

At some point he will turn WNW.

If he does not turn WNW...

there will be a BIG problem or... 

1. He will follow the left side of the package and scare Nola... 

2. He will intensify and make the turn but the turn will be sharper.

I'll give my thoughts in the morning after I see if this new Isaac is for real and what changes there may be in the models and the actual steering currents.  Would like to see him pull a few degrees north rather than me relocated south.

For Miami:

It's looking better and better model wise that Miami may escape a direct hit. Then again, it's way too early to give any kind of "don't worry" call and any time a storm is south of you and models bring it north of you... pay attention. Miami is in the cone for a reason.

For Tampa:

Work on those plans to deal with a close call or direct hit as delegates are about to board planes to Tampa .. it's not an easy forecast but they are for now on the closer side to trouble than Miami. That can change. If it makes anyone feel better, Tampa rarely gets hit from this direction.. can happen though. Check out Donna. 

For the Florida Keys:

Trouble... unless Isaac stays west a long, long time the Keys are in danger. The specific part of the Keys? I'd say Middle to Lower Keys ...including Key West. Marathon would be highlighted in my mind of more concern than say Key Largo. If Key Largo is in plan, Miami is in play. If Key West is in play, Tampa might be in play.  I love the Keys... love them so much... so really this concerns me.

For Northern Gulf Coast, NW Bend of Florida:

Stay on top if this storm. I said earlier today in passing Marathon to Mobile and that could happen. Then again he could get up into the Gulf of Mexico and intensify into a very strong Cane and scare the beejeebees (as Grandma said) out of everyone from Gulfport to Nola. Not funny, it is possible though not probable. 


Should get Isaac but where he crosses or what he does is anyone's guess.


Rain is a given and any rain causes floods and people are living in tents and temporary structures and it won't be pretty. He might scrape across the southern part... then again he may just clip the tip of the peninsular on his way to Cuba.   If he does not turn soon... Haiti is looking better off... up the road that would, could.. mean a much stronger hurricane.


Probably too far north to deal with much and at the moment Isaac doesn't have much. Recon didn't find too much to write home about intensity wise and radar in the islands didn't show much. That can and will change if this building trend continues within the center of Isaac.

An observation and a possible problem:

In the short run he doesn't have much moisture to suck into him.. that will change down the road and if he moves wNw towards Cuba. Some dry air down there near South America that Ernesto dealt with and he may have to ... mind you he is SUPPOSED to be UP near Cuba tomorrow.. on his way towards Cuba. This will be the real telling of the future story. 

Note TD 10 soon to be Joyce is following behind and the further west he goes, the further west her tracks will go as well.

OH... and Kirk is not far behind and most models build Kirk into a bigger storm than Joyce... 

3 storms... Isaac, Joyce and Kirk:

Last note: 

Tonight Nola is in the tip of the Navy cone. Maybe tomorrow when you read this the cone will have turned north a bit but............wouldn't bet on it.

Stay safe.. prepare... if the front really is dying out... I don't see what is going to drag this storm North. It's been explained to me several times by different people who support the different scenarios but right now... I don't see it.

Sweet Tropical Dreams

Ps...sorry for any typos... my spell checker is tired and I'm seeing double and need to go to bed. Stay tuned and thanks for reading this compilation of thoughts on Isaac.


At 10:48 PM, Blogger dina sara said...

I know you love tracking capeverde storms across the atlantic... But here's a statistical question for you.
How many verde storms make it across the atlantic per year?

How many thrive to become solid cat1•properly named storms?

what are the odds of landfall per year?

While fun to track... I don't have faith in them..

If it keeps wobbling sw it maybe live... But only the models will tell....


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