Hurricane Harbor: Tropical Storm Joyce Forms.. Issac Stays South

Tropical Storm formed this morning in the Tropical Atlantic. We are now tracking 2 named storms in the Atlantic Basin. One newly formed and one that is not listening to the model discussion or reading his Twitter feed. One can only hope Joyce is easier to track and doesn't upset too many ulcers at the NHC.

Here's a graphic showing the swath of the Earth that both storms could affect in the next five days.

[Image of probabilities of tropical storm force winds]

[Image of probabilities of tropical storm force winds]

Going to keep the analysis short this morning as until we know where Isaac is going it's hard to say what really will be. The NHC has handled this movement South of West as a temporary movement which is more relocation of the poorly formed center than any real true movement. There has been a strong ball of convection moving en mass west or just south of Due West for more than 24 hour, however they are not giving that area credit but an area to the north where the center should be (according to previous forecasts) that may or may not be the real center. Until this drama plays out in real time there is no way of knowing which ...if any...of the models has the right handle on Isaac.

Models are made by people, they are tons of data and are fine tuned, retuned and over analyzed to death sometimes. In reality, the next run can change based on the actual track of the storm. Some models handle one type of storm better than the other.

I asked several days ago why this storm should be so different from the others who all tracked West loaded with dust inside their genetic DNA code and having a very hard time trying to overcome a very dysfunctional childhood near the Cape Verde Islands. A set of strong fronts moved south and were predicted to change up the steering flow weakening the ridge. That did happen... but it happened last week and the last few days. Now... worried on where that next front is as the last two fronts dipped more south than the current one is dipping. This front is moving NW to SE or really ESE and not dipping as well. Look at it up in Canada... it's not dipping. The last front that blew through Raleigh, NC with strong wind and strong storms and a mild sense of Fall on it's way dipped DOWN... and kept going all the way through Georgia to North Florida. This new front is not. More so... there is an tilted effect throughout the US.. What you can see is that high pressure is protecting Texas and IF ISAAC ever moves north and intensifies he should be pulled north towards the temporary weakness towards an area from Mobile, AL to NW Florida. A really wonderful person... funny person... a writer told me "Never say SHOULD" but it's hard not to when talking on a Forecast as a forecast is basically what the NHC feels the storm SHOULD do.

If this storm is like my friend... it is gonna do what it LOVES to do and so either you believe this is all scientific and mathematics or you believe there is a personality to each storm...or you believe a blend of both. It's not hard to understand this wave sucked in a lot of dust... it hurt it's early structural formation and that is hard to overcome. But, many storms do. Remember again.. Camille was a weak Cape Verde Wave that did not get it's groove together until it passed Jamaica and pulled North. Also a August storm. Happens.

Visible Water Vapor - GOES East 12 hr Loop

Where big spinning Isaac that looks like some gyroscope down there in the Caribbean gets his groove on will tell the rest of the story. Models will change often, especially as he keeps moving west or just South of West.

"HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL CORE OF ISAAC

REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED...WITH MULTIPLE LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY CENTERS
ROTATING AROUND A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT WINDS.  IN ADDITION...THE
CENTER IN AIRCRAFT DATA IS NORTH OF THE CENTER SUGGESTED BY THE
SATELLITE IMAGERY.  A COMBINATION OF FLIGHT-LEVEL...DROPSONDE...AND
SFMR WINDS SUGGEST THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS NEAR 35 KT."

The discussion above from the NHC.... fragments of it... are "hints" in the discussion that they would like to downgrade, dysfunctional and misbehaving Isaac down to a Tropical Depression. Last night around midnight Jim Cantore looked like if he had a shot gun he'd shoot this thing as if he had gone hunting in the North Vermont Woods... he really didn't think it was a Tropical Storm. He made a good case for it. I think it is... it is a weak one with a lot of potential for misery down the road.

THE OVERALL CIRCULATION OF ISAAC IS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN 12
HR AGO.  HOWEVER...IT SEEMS TO HAVE RESUMED A WESTWARD MOTION AT
ABOUT 13 KT.

Note the use of the word "seems" ...ummmmmm...they aren't sure, more hoping than sure of anything. Oddly the models have now come into agreement. Perhaps someone should text them to Isaac on post on Tumblr..

AND AT 120 HR THEY ARE BETWEEN
NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.  THUS...
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ABOUT THE THREAT ISAAC POSES TO
FLORIDA.

A lot of uncertainty here it seems.

IN THE SHORT TERM...THE STRUCTURE OF ISAAC SUGGESTS THAT ONLY SLOW
STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY.  HOWEVER...THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE FAVORABLE FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION...WHICH COULD OCCUR IF THE
CYCLONE DEVELOPS A WELL-DEFINED INNER CORE.  BASED ON THIS...THE
INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE THE
SYSTEM REACHES HISPANIOLA IN ABOUT 36 HR.  AFTER THAT...PASSAGE OVER
HISPANIOLA AND CUBA SHOULD CAUSE SOME WEAKENING...FOLLOWED BY
LITTLE CHANGE OF STRENGTH FROM 48-72 HR.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST
SHOWS A LITTLE MORE STRENGTHENING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO DUE TO
THE FORECAST TRACK BEING A LITTLE FARTHER FROM THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA THAN BEFORE.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND
OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS...AND IT IS WELL
ABOVE THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.

Beven writes a good forecast, he's one of my favorites at the NHC. However, he doesn't have much to work with other than good recon data, better model output and an large, gyro sort of storm with several centers rotating around each other as it moves west ...which MUST be exhausting and not easy to do and the dry air is STILL in the storm. Again, look at the looping image below and yu will see what I was worried on last night... the area out in front of Isaac seems a bit too dry and until he can pick up and wrap in moisture he will not intensify. And, if he doesn't have a "true" center than it's almost impossible. The models are bad an Intensity Forecasting... and they are seeing a stronger storm than what Isaac has been or is today. Will he get it together and lift north and catch his door towards Florida... only Isaac can tell that story. We can only comment and try and make a prediction or a forecast.