Isaac 11 PM Thursday Night..

As of 11 PM... this Bulletin from the NHC was sent out. However, there were many IFS, SHOULDS and EXPECTS in the discussion concerning Isaac's current condition which is weak, hanging in and trying to come together the same way tonight that he did around 3 AM last night but was unable to maintain throughout the day today.

"BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
1100 PM AST THU AUG 23 2012

...ISAAC EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR OVER HISPANIOLA TOMORROW ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING..."

Got some Greens tonight on Funktop................ maybe he's coming together or maybe he's a night storm. Always seems to look better at 3 AM..





Models pull a bit back to the right and then head over towards the Gulf Coast cities...

Stephanie Abrams is in Key West... nice job if you can get it :)

Seidel will be in Cuba... that's really exciting as it's a first for TWC.

Note that the models have all shifted towards the Gulf, the Central Gulf and barely even touch Florida.  Explain to me why Bill Nelson could not have waited until tomorrow... mid day tomorrow before sending out an email the way he did. Mind you I have NEVER EVER gotten emails from any of my elected officials before prior to a Hurricane...let alone a Tropical Storm.




???

I am not diminishing the threat to Miami... or Naples (which has more problems according to this map) or Jax or Orlando or Tampa (pay attention Tampa) I am just saying we need to use a level head here, stay focused, watch the storm and be ready to act should the worst case scenario occur.

IF..

He pulls together and has a well defined center.
Intensifies.
Moves towards the WNW ...NW coherent, real movement not relocation of the supposed center.
Intensifies over the Florida Straits...
If he is over Cuba and looking as if Florida is his next target vs Mobile or New Orleans... then we should really step up and take action.

BOARDING UP SHUTTERS IN MIAMI RIGHT NOW IS REALLY OVER THE TOP.. Id make that decision in 24 or 36 hours... only IF all of the above has happened.

NOTE.. should he get over the Gulf and move towards the Central Gulf Coast... we could have a major hurricane to deal with and a really, bad scenario.

He is big.. more like a big tropical trough with multiple centers and strong winds far from the middle of the storm. The Turks were getting strong winds, so did several places far from his "center" so everyone needs to stay on top of this and be prepared.. just in case the worst case scenario plays out.

Wind probs are up for Miami and the Keys:

PATRICK AFB    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   8(17)   1(18)
  
 FT PIERCE FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)   6(19)   X(19)
 FT PIERCE FL   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
  
 W PALM BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  18(18)   5(23)   1(24)
 W PALM BEACH   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
  
 MIAMI FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  26(28)   4(32)   1(33)
 MIAMI FL       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 MIAMI FL       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
  
 MARATHON FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  35(37)   5(42)   X(42)
 MARATHON FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   3(13)   X(13)
 MARATHON FL    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
  
 KEY WEST FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  33(34)   7(41)   X(41)
 KEY WEST FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)   2(14)   X(14)
 KEY WEST FL    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
  
 MARCO ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  29(29)  10(39)   X(39)
 MARCO ISLAND   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   5(11)   X(11)
 MARCO ISLAND   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
  
 FT MYERS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  21(21)  14(35)   1(36)
 FT MYERS FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   5( 9)   X( 9)
 FT MYERS FL    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
  
 VENICE FL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  15(15)  20(35)   2(37)
 VENICE FL      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)   1(10)
 VENICE FL      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
  
 TAMPA FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)  18(28)   3(31)
 TAMPA FL       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)
 TAMPA FL       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)
  
 CEDAR KEY FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  17(21)   4(25)
 CEDAR KEY FL   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)
 CEDAR KEY FL   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
  

I always pay attention to wind probability statistics, but remember they could be from winds far from the center of the storm. A Hurricane is concentrated and intense. A tropical storm is poorly put together and weather is strung out over a large area.

I think a letter from Senator Bill Nelson tonight in my email from earlier in the day was a little over the top. Never got one before for a hurricane, why now for Isaac except that its the anniversary of Andrew and a politically correct time to send one.

Radar from the Carib on www.stormcarib.com






 The juice loop shows a slow steady move towards Haiti and Cuba... maybe...

Keep watching... the 3 day has Miami and the Keys in the Cone so I would imagine... they WILL have some periods of heavy rain, very heavy and strong winds. IF he strengthens over Cuba as the  models have implied... be ready to go into action for a stronger storm.

As for me... taking a bath. In a nice hotel room in a nice city on a nice road trip and enjoying the benefits and relaxing while watching the storm try ... over and over to pull himself together.

The last hour.. he does look better. And, the new models will have the data from the Gulfstream Jet so they should be much more reliable.



Sweet Tropical Dreams
Bobbi

PS latest GFS takes it over the Keys and towards N Gulf... Mobile Bay to Pcola ...