Isaac Goes West @ 15 MPH... a bit stronger at 50 mph..

Despite the fact that they upped the intensity of Tropical Storm Isaac to 50 mph and lowered the barometric pressure to 1000mb he doesn't look very different. This has to be the slowest progress intensity wise of any storm in ages. He's sort of like one of those women who works three jobs, supports her kids and puts her husband through college and finally at 45 goes back to college and gets her degree. No, wait...stop, change that.. it's like she went back to college finally at 45 and got good grades at the end of her first semester. Late bloomer in ways... despite the fact that she has traveled a good distance in life over time.

Isaac has traveled all the way from Africa and has been sitting down there in the Caribbean doing what he was doing in the Central Atlantic.. trying to organize.

He looks better this morning.. maybe... barely.

I think the biggest news from the NHC this morning is that they finally conceded at 5AM that Isaac is going WEST and they dropped him, relocated him... gave up the ghost... and have him at 16N going West at 15 mph. Of course, they expect him to go back to his WNW movement (which he never really did to begin with) and they expect that to change to NW up the road when he hits Haiti and Cuba.

I do think at some point he will move more north... eventually WNW and who knows NW or a sharper turn to the North, but that all depends on timing. And, note saying he is going 15 mph forward speed is generous. I went to bed around 2:30 AM after waiting up for the 2 AM advisory and talking to online weather friends...  when I woke up at 8AM he barely looked like he moved at all.

Yes he is a very big storm and there will be a lot of wet weather over a wide area far from the perceived center of the Isaac and unless and until he wraps up and concentrates his energy into a stronger storm this will be a problem wherever he goes ... however.........putting up shutters for a possible glancing blow by a Tropical Storm or a very weak hurricane three days in advance is overkill.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html

(music to loop by) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PsKZewdhDtk

If you look carefully at this loop you will see that the front is diving down across the South, well diving at an angle anyway but diving never the less and this is the front that should GRAB Isaac and lift him north towards the tip of Haiti and across Cuba where Mike Seidel is waiting to cover his crossing...

However, he has barely moved and if he misses his flight he may get stuck down in the Caribbean longer waiting for another one and slowly moving W at 15 mph or maybe WNW eventually. My problem is we are trusting models that have ..for the most part... been wrong. If you look at the models from 3 days ago he was supposed to already be up over Hispaniola and crossing Cuba about to aim at Florida.

Note the discussion from the NHC. They basically say in a nice way.. they don't know where the exact center is and their position  is for continuity sake ...which means it makes their previous forecasts look good. That may sound harsh, I respect them sooo sooo much, however the truth is they are sticking with continuity for lack of real, hard data that the lower center that is cruising west steadily is the real center.

See discussion below...or a fragment of it:

THE LONG TERM INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN
275/13...AS THE INITIAL POSITION ESTIMATE IS BASED ON A BLEND OF
RECENT FIXES AND CONTINUITY. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
BE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE RESUMPTION OF A WEST- 

NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD MOTION"

This is a problem...and it basically means that at some point... unless it falls apart and I don't think it will ... one center will take over and the general flow is going to take it up into the Gulf by way of Cuba, the Florida Keys and depending on the forward speed he will be a weak storm or a BIG MASSIVE MAJOR if he slows down over the Gulf's very hot water.  This is the real problem. We just don't know. For all we know he can keep going and end up between Jamaica and Cuba, much like the other storms that came before him were forecast to do.

Is the European right or the GFS? We don't know. And, the reason we don't know is that model forecasting is a new science and a science that is still learning new things. And, he has yet to follow any one model ESPECIALLY with regard to intensity.

And, I have said it before and I will say it again. If you get the timing off, you get the intensity off and if you get the intensity off... you get the forecasted track off...

In the short term they are good, because they adjust to every piece of data that is put into them from the Recon flights... but in the end..it's up to Isaac.

So, if you are up stream to the North or the West of Isaac... watch carefully.

Miami... WPB... Florida Keys...Naples... Tampa... pay attention carefully.

I like TWC's new way of advising Home Land Security style...if you go from yellow to ORANGE... get ready... go into action for Red... good idea.

I'll update later... when Isaac gets up off his you know what and actually does something definitive.

Until then... I'm gonna go walk around Annapolis while Stephanie Abrams gets to play in Key West down the block from where my great, great grandparents lived...and their name was Abrams too .. go figure. I love Key West. Love any place by the water, but especially Key West..

Sure hope this is not one of those occasions when everyone gives a party for someone and the guest does not show up...   not that avoiding death and destruction from a Hurricane would be a bad thing.

This really has to be the most hyped Tropical Storm that I can remember in a long time... it will be a real WIN for the models IF Isaac does follow the tracks and the one that predicts this the best, possibly the Euro will be the new Queen or King of Tropical Meteorological Forecasting.

If you are in this box... pay attention...

Besos Bobbi

Ps...

My biggest concern model wise is that I think he dawdled too long and has missed his ride out

But I could and am probably wrong...just a concern I have right now..

Use your time today wisely if you are in the cone above

that includes the city hosting the Republican Convention.....