Colin Up to 50%

What a soap opera...

The TWC has a contest.... which will come out of retirement first Colin or Brett Favre.

I'll take Colin though prefer to watch Brett.

The visible image above shows a definitive circulation that seems pretty darn closed off to me. Granted he is dragging his convection behind him like he always does.

One of the best in the business taught me several years back that they always look the same. There is something inherent in each wave, each storm... it has a signature and though they intensify into bigger storms the original baby pic is still there and even as older storms you can still see the baby pic in your mind.

A lot you learn about storms at 2am on IM with some of the best tropical mets in the world. And, no I don't kiss and tell but I will tell you this...

Colin always outruns his convection. At some point things could change (though I don't see that happening) and he could stall out somewhere and you wouldn't see it as much and he could build into some massive hurricane like a few models wishcasted but deep down he would still be a bit misplaced and very ADD trying to run off before he is really ready.

Takes time to build a hurricane. You need that inner spark and you need the convection to wrap and you need the ULL to get the hell off it's back and the dust to blow away but still a bottom heavy wave is a bottom heavy wave and becomes a bottom heavy hurricane.

And, you know what I find interesting about Colin?

If he could... if he would... he could develop into a hurricane with one classic kick ass NE quadrant. Why you ask? Because his strongest winds are ALWAYS in the NE part of his convection. Why did Miami get so much bad weather from Donna who cruised through Marathon and the Keys? Because we were stuck in the NE quadrant of a Classic Cape Verde Hurricane. And, that NE quadrant packs a mean punch.. a lot like the Long Island Iced Teas at the Bonaventure in the 80s in L.A. They are not the same as what you get at Hiros in NMB trust me...

So... if Colin be Colin and Colin develops into a Cane...watch out he can be one mean classic Cane... but that's a lot of IFs.

I'm much more into sure things and yet I sit here today wondering on whether or not I will or won't get a passport back to Miami Beach lol and feeling sort of silly and carefree.

I never liked when my friend would say that... but they were right... they know their stuff and though it may not sound scientific it's exact and I owe them a lot for both an education in tropical meteorology as well as ... life.

So...gonna drink some cafecito and wake up from this fog I am in and start tackling my to do list for the day. By the way...thanks for the espresso machine, got some good Miami Cuban Coffee before leaving to put in ye olde espresso machine and going to nibble at some Peruvian Chocolate (thank you) and wonder on life today.

It's kind of nice being a kept muse... you never know what present will come next though I know what I am sending out today :) Got to wait for the snail mail to come dontcha?

You see we all have our priorities in life...

Mine are good coffee and good friends and a morning shower.

I wake up and need a shower and I need my coffee and sometimes I even drink the coffee in the shower ... works really... sort of a steamy java experience.

Next I check the loops... (okay I check emails and percentages before the loops on the blackberry) and then life goes on... one thing to do at a time.

I miss Miami. I miss the stupid little Cuban coffee place on Lincoln Road next to Zelick's grandfather's cigar shop and next to the CVS where the one armed man stands around all day while day workers and Miami Beach movers and shakers all grab their cafecito along with a pastry... of course Davids works as well but it's not as Real Miami Beach as my Cuban Coffee place is.. and I am as real Miami Beach as it gets. Surprising for a girl who grew up out near Coral Gables at the other end of Miami.

I know my son (who turned 16 today) likes the place on 23rd near his school... we all have our favorites... I miss the old gas station that was on the south side of the street where some guy sold local fruit and they made really strong cuban coffee that I would grab fast when I forgot to take my inhaler when the now 16 year old was a little baby and I was running over to the Publix on Dade Blvd to buy his diapers and talk to my friend Sharon.

Life is often full circle... 16 years old today. Born at Mt. Sinai Hospital... where he was treated earlier this year for a broken elbow after slamming into a few once beautiful palm trees on Flamingo Drive just a few blocks from the house where we lived when he was born. He drinks Cuban Coffee at the gas station across the street from the one I used to go to to drink Cuban Coffee when he was a baby. He's in Iowa today, far away from palm trees and cuban coffee and school that starts in a few weeks and possible September hurricanes in his future.

Life goes full circle for Colin too... he's back, still annoying the forecasters who want to kill him off and send him to the Tropical Graveyard of want to be hurricanes.

And, IF he does get his name back that means the models were right and THAT IS A GOOD THING as it means the models are doing good this year and it will be a busy year and we will need those models working fine and dandy.

http://www.tampabay.com/news/weather/hurricanes/hurricane-experts-
slightly-lower-2010-seasonal-outlook/1113325

Dr. Gray and Phil K released their updated forecast yesterday and stuck with their original forecast for a busy season. Noaa released it's updated forecast today and they still call for a busy season...not as busy at 2005 but 3 to 6 majors is nothing to laugh at. Well ... I could considering I would say "I'd like to see a major form this year" but I know they will... and yes I said "they" will form.

So.... Happy Birthday Zalmy (not that you stalk my blog or anything like that) and may your meteorological knowledge grow along with your other knowledge and may you know where and when to hunker down and where and when to go to the beach before a storm.

As for me.... I'm going to make lists today and clean today and try not to stare at the remnants of Colin today too much and may the only Key Lime Donuts that I see be on the loops while waiting for Hot Towers to form and for the wonderful men in their flying machines please be able to find a west wind... and may we get on with the 2010 Hurricane Season.

Not watching the mail... GMail or snail mail... going to the post office to send a thank you present to you know who you are and wearing my purple Key West tank top and being who I am.. Bobbi.

Now if Colin could just become Colin again... and as for Brett...well I know I have been told by a few people not to be so in love with him and since they know him personally I should listen but... got to love the way Brett plays football so got to hope he comes back... heard the Dolphins are down one back up quarterback... hmmnnnn would that be a dream deal in paradise...

Besos Bobbi