Tropical Storm Colin... Officially a Tropical Storm

So... as I said a few days ago we have Tropical Storm Colin :)

A very, very weak tropical storm but a tropical storm and he is trying to put on a show and show us what he's got. Today is the day. Conditions in the Atlantic will get unfriendly in a day or so ...or less considering the speed he is going at ..

A lot of issues going on here with Colin. Number one is he is moving about five mph too fast... a storm moving at more than 20 knots has a hard time developing and yet every storm seems to have it's own stride and way of doing things. Every once in a while you get one that is the exception to the rule. Colin made it through the night and is looking brighter on the satellite imagery this morning so maybe he knows what he is doing. Either way he is forecast to run into a shear zone which will take a big bite out of his intensification plans. Second..the tracks may bend back a bit more to the west but the recurvature tracks should continue. The question is at what point does he curve? Later rather than sooner is going to give some people gastritis in Miami and the Bahamas. Last night they were talking about Bermuda and today the San Juan National Weather Service is publicly being skeptical about the NHC forecast. Never a good sign...

"NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
531 AM AST TUE AUG 3 2010

ALL OF THE MODELS CURVE COLIN NORTHWARD...WHICH WOULD PLACE COLIN
DUE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AT 24.5 NORTH BY EARLY MORNING FRIDAY.
COLIN HAS MOVED TOWARD 283 DEGREES AT 25 KTS DURING THE PAST 24
HOURS. IT IS NOT CLEAR WHY IT IS FORECAST TO CURVE SO MUCH GIVEN
THE LOCATION OF THE LOW LEVEL HIGH...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
THE SPEED AT WHICH IT IS MOVING. AND IF IT DID NOT CHANGE COURSE
IT WOULD CROSS INTO THE CARIBBEAN NEAR GUADELOUPE. IT MAY BE
SPECULATED THAT FOR THIS REASON THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS
STATED THAT INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF COLIN. REGARDLESS OF ACTUAL TRACK AT THIS
POINT MOISTURE FROM COLIN BEING PULLED IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL
KEEP THE AREA MOSTLY CLOUDY AND WET THURSDAY AND FRIDAY..."

That tidbit was posted online earlier on the message boards, thanks... as I am packing right now (or should be) I didn't have time to read through all the island forecasts to see a hint of problems possibly down the road. San Juan knows their stuff so it does make me raise an eyebrow here.

He reminds me of those storms that turn at the last minute when the NHC keeps moving the cone a bit closer and closer to the coastline and then in the end he follows the plan, the left side of the plan.

Current plan:



Note... Bonnie took the very top right, north side of the cone when she came into Miami Dade County as a minimal tropical storm vs the Keys. Is that a tendency in the models to miss something or was that just Bonnie? Don't know... am Bobbi and I have problems figuring myself out sometimes...

Keep watching this link below... if Colin gets nice and round like a little tangerine he is in business, if he begins to go yellow orange and flatlines he is not doing well. It is that simple, great loop to watch when watching where the tropical moisture is going.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/tpw2/natl/anim/latest72hrs.gif

IF he is still developing a nice, tight inner core by 11 am then we may have a real storm. If he is further west than expected at 11 we may have a difficult storm. He reminds me right now of some army marching fast but do they have enough supplies to feed the troops?

As for me...would love to see Colin in the Carolinas in some sort of sick funny way before I get back to Miami for the rest of the season...if I get back to Miami for the rest of the season. Waiting on a few pieces of information to know whether I will be watching waves at Collins and 23rd or not... so much speculation going on here...

Miami is amazing... truly amazing...hot and steamy and always beautiful. Let's keep her beautiful and safe as storm come close but don't do much more than trim a few palm trees with tree debris :) Driving down Collins after Bonnie joking with some weather chaser friend about palm fronds, palm fronds, debris, palm fronds... may all of Mother Nature's Canes be kind to Miami...and Key West.

Besos Bobbi
May update later from the road.. if not will post tonight after we see more of what Colin's got .. as for me got my breakfast for the road and stopping for one cafecito and out of here...for now.. chow for now Bobbi