Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Tuesday, August 22, 2023

Updated 11 AM - Harold Makes Landfall at San Padre Island... After Reforming Center........ Sings Hello Texas. Franklin Drifting Slowly. Gert Expected to Die Soon. Does the I Storm Do Florida? Models Hinting It Will. Stay Tuned for September.... When Tropical Storms Grow Up to be Hurricanes!

10 AM

Padre Island.........
...not a stranger to tropical trouble.

Using the radar as a often shows where the storm is and NHC suddenly announced Harold reformed to the North and was making landfall at San Padre Island. The discussion above shows that and adds it'll dissipate soon. Rains moving inland along a thin line, far from the areas way to the North in Texas that could really use the rain. Interesting triva note is that both Hurricane Hilary and TS Harold both made landfall and slammed the borderlands with heavy rain. Both H storms, literally just hit me. Go figure. See Tweet below!

Franklin at 11 AM

I don't know where to start. Headlines from NHC for Franklin act as if the person who wrote them didn't read the Discussion. Is there a disconnect or both could be true? Obviously the RAIN will get caught in the flow and move up towards Hispaniola with the threat of deadly flooding. 


Okay.... the discussion meanwhile says they are not sure if there really is a closed center and if there is a center where exactly that center is and using the word of the day ... it may have REFORMED further West, but they aren't sure and are hoping to pin it down soon with all the measures they take to do their forecasting. Let's be honest this has been an issue for a while but now being addressed as it's late for it's date with Hispaniola and there are just so many questions. The center may have reformed but the track is the same (not showing it, it's the same) and the forecast is for it still to become a hurricane in the Bahamas or near there. Landfall is forecast, unless something changes, to be on the South Coast of Domincan Republic.

Time will tell.
Let's look at Franklin up close and personal.

You can see the naked center W of convection.

Top of video convection is trying to wrap.

Franklin is between a rock and a hard place.
Dry air on either sid.
Not much mentioned on that...
IF it could hook up with convection to the W
...well just talking out loud.
What do the models see here?

Models insist we get a hurricane N of Hispaniola near the Bahamas, which seems strange even with very hot water as to become a hurricane it needs a CORE.. a CENTER and currently the NHC isn't sure it has a center (it does, it's naked and not where they thought it was) and so are the models bad because they are being fed bad data (garbage in, garbage out) or are the models seeing the pattern for a hurricane in that area several days from now. Really becomming an interesting meteorological mystery. I'm home, watching the rain and wind in Texas, it might not be much by Miami standards but I'd love to be at the beach with any wind and rain right now, so looks good to me.

Stay tuned. I'll update if and when they find the center (being silly and very honest) and this is why people are always intrigued by tropical meteorology. You'd think it'd all be so simple. Models show development, direction, intensity and all you have to do is wait to get busy once there is a Watch or a Warning posted. Wrong. Yes, we are blessed to have early warning from the NHC but in reality many of us burned by a perceived busted forecast (or even slightly busted such as Charley and Ian) prefer watching people online in real time as well as enjoying the colorful satellite and radar imagery as the storm goes through all it's moves before landfall. When I say "busted" I don't mean NHC did not have landfall in the Cone before landfall, but those who are drawn in by clickbait and endless headlines of how TAMPA IS GETTING A MAJOR HURRICANE and then.......the Hurricane cuts in short to the right and Charley and Ian did not hit Tampa as the media promimsed. Hilary did not hit LA .... it veered some to the right and towns in the desert such as Palm Springs took the brunt of it as I had mentioned here often and yes some areas to the West of landfall did get weather issues as again the NHC tracks the center of the storm not every gale, gust or tornado that spins up nor does it mention beaches far from the center that will have flooding.

Forecasts change. Andrew was weak moving towards a landfall further up the coast far from Miami, and suddenly the front evaporated it that was supposed to grab it (in late August) and the high built in and Andrew turned West and sped towards Miami. At the last moment, Andrew bobbled just a drop to the S and it slamed into the suburbs to the South and West of Miami in Homestead, though we all got some of it in Miami. And don't even get me started on Irene.........

It's not that the models were wrong.
It's not that the forecast was wrong.
The atmosphere is fluid.
Unexpected events happen.
Andrew didn't stay weak.
Andrew DID hit Miami.
NHC gave a good heads up.
Miamians went into action.

And when AOL showed up ...
... Miamians went on AOL.
To Weather Chat.. 

Atmosphere is FLUID
It's in real time.
Models try to figure it out.

Stay tuned.
2023 a year of the unpredictable.

Lesson from Andrew.
Never count out a stubborn weak TS!!
Franklin's trying, keep watching.

Live and learn. 

Watch the Cone, follow advice from the NHC ALWAYS but watch in real time. Sometimes a storm does reform, it happens. And, today we may have seen two reformations of the center at almost the same hour in time. Go figure............

Keep reading if you have not done so.

8 AM

From Instagram ....
8 AM Advisory on Harold.
Radar presentation a bit better.
Will update with 11 AM 
keep reading...thanks.

A look at the globe on our side of the world.
Franklin is noticeable.
Harold streaks towards Texas.

Will discuss the areas of interest tomorrow.

Today is about Tropical Storms.
2 Tropical Storms and a Tropical Depresssion.

Let's see....what to write. I can share with you what I wrote to my brother but that's not officially what I would say here in the blog. But maybe I should, as it's fairly honest and straightforward and yes that is a word. 

"both messy excuses for using a name. Franklin looked better, shear increased and it stalled (slipped South really) they didn't see that coming (so much for models) each new model edges closer to the US from it's hard right out to sea. Harold is just an excuse to use a name... closer to land, why not. Both are tilted" 

Harold closed but oblong.
Franklin tilted.
Not tight signatures but they have a name!

I'm fairly sure BobbiStorm of 2005 would have just posted that fast before running out to work and rambling a bit on her personal life. 

In truth, Franklin is a fighter and that's something to note, usually the fighters stay alive to fight a battle somewhere else down the line. In truth, Franklin was not forecast to sit down there battling shear, but was expected to be on it's way to landfall in Hispaniola by now. Note the Cone below and notice that it shows Franklin this morning should be near the tip of Hispaniola.

Compare the old early cone with today's cone.

To be fair they did show it slowing a bit.
But not this much.

What Franklin really did below.
Wind History

What Franklin did is dip to the South, then retrace it's steps and that is basically in theory as the satellite keeps missing the center and it's an estimated center at best. Convection wise Franklin has looked impressive at times, fallen apart, then built right back up again. It's like some early scene in Rocky before he triumphantly climbs those infamous stairs eventually. And, the truth is the real story with Franklin will be what he eventually does after he confronts Hispaniola and in theory intensifies North of there near less shear and a more friendly environment. 

My problem is the models have not handled him all that well and timing with tropical systems is everything, when they keep missing their next time stamp, they often miss where they are supposed to be down the road. Normally that's a huge issue, but so far we don't have fronts for it to catch or miss this week nor do we have a real definitive High Pressure. The discussion from the NHC points out the problems in this forecast and that's honest and I give credit to anyone there having to write a coherent, wise discussion for what has been an ongoing mess. And,'s still there and that means a lot. It's the ones that battle back that often go far and cause trouble somewhere else. 

Current models for Franklin.
From SpaghettiModels

Our Red Blob is Franklin.
Consistently I may add.

This is what the NHC headline is currently.  ..FRANKLIN STILL DRIFTING SLOWLY WITH NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY...  Truthful. And, I want to add as a writer they put the words together in a sentence "drifting slowly" which is about as redundant as you can get but totally honest! 

Bottom Line. At some point it's going to pull North (if the forecast verifies) and some island upstream is going to have to deal with it as it's landlocked in the Caribbean. Hispaniola, especially Dominican Republic is currently on it's travel plans but a look at Wind Probs shows many other places could deal with it as well if the track bends a bit to the left or to the right.

Franklin is currently a colorful crapshoot.
If it makes it to the Bahamas...
....and stays together.
It may be a real hurricane.
Some models even hint at major.
But it's a long way from here to there.
Stay tuned.

As for Harold.
Surprised it was upgraded.

Looks more like an elongated moisture surge.
A center but nothing has wrapped.

He is so good with his words. True too.

That said it will be tropical downpours to parts of South Texas near the border. It will have some wind, and probably picturesque imagery on TWC and I'll sit staring at TWC wishing I was there and watching Mike (of Spaghetti Models) who actually went out there to chase and that was wise of him as the way this season is going if you have a chance to chase take it. 

That's what the NHC headlines show.
TD Gert
TS Franklin
TS Harold 

It's as if Tropical Storms are on sale in the Bargain Basement this year, and Josh is 100% correct. Well, except for the one that got away and became Dora in the Pacific that last night was still getting advisories written on it and Don in the North Atlantic that went Hurricane. We are at the "i" named storm because the January Winter Storm was upgraded just before the Hurricane Season began or we'd be looking at Harold and most of the storms we have had in the Atlantic would be called wimpy storms by most of my friends in the storm chasing or academic world. Some of these storms in other years would not be named and that is solely based on their naming was soley because a satellite  managed to get an image that actually crossed the center of a tropical disturbance showing it had a closed circulation and therefore was upgraded.  That's fair but it doesn't compare to what many tropical disturbances had to go through to get far enough West to get Hurricane Recon to go out and find the data to upgrade the storm, or for a ship to sail through it and relay the reports to the NHC. It's easier in 2023 for a weak system to get an upgrade to TS status and for discussion from the NHC to note that they do not expect it to be around long than it was say in 1969.

Here's the cone for Gert.

Honestly............. we are approaching September. I ate a chocolate peanut butter cup shaped like a football the other day. I have 2 "fall decorations" waiting to be put up next week. This will be the true test of this Hurricane Season.

I'll let the people with agendas argue it out as they have been doing. 
"This is a hyperactive period in the tropics" vs "El Nino is going to shut down the season early" 
I'm not going there. 

The dreaded I storm is next up!
As in they usually have an eye!

I will say models consistently now show something coming up into the Gulf of Mexico and approaching some part of Florida, crossing it somewhere and in a way I can say that's logical as they mostly are showing Tropical Storm intensity vs the Time Traveler Cat 6 Storm that was posted all over social media. Seriously anything goes and gets play these days if it's crazy enough for people to repost. Had she said "a Cat 6 Hurricane will approach Florida in July" THAT WOULD HAVE BEEN SOME STORY... but September 6th it's logical for a hurricane somewhere going major in any given year and might be approaching Florida or the Carolinas. Social Media Time Traveler Weather People... welcome to 2023! 

Nuff said.

Time will tell.

On a personal level I'm feeling better but not going to overdo today and continue doing what I'm doing. A license to chill, watch coverage of TS Harold hitting Texas, do some personal things and take my meds, drink tea and maybe even make dinner tonight. My husband cooked last night as I was told to rest, he made pizza and a salad it was fun. Once upon the time he was a chef, his family was in the hotel/restaurant business I should just let him make Veal Osso Buco or Chicken Picatta but I do like cooking. My son who is a foodie influencer is in Europe covering a Jewish River Cruise which is rich in food and heavy in history or maybe that should be the other way around; he's there with my old boss the Dean of Touro College doing the history stuff.... so go figure. Here I am in Raleigh hoping to go to the beach down the road and feel the breeze from whichever storm puts Carolina on it's bucket list and debate when I'm going to Miami next. Life is good. Life is what we make it. Today I'm focused on the tropics and getting past the cold that trigged my asthma when it was 98 degrees yesterday in Raleigh, all is well in my world today. A good day to play and watch Harold do Texas..........

I'll update as needed today.
Sweet Tropical Dreams....
..or Italian or Alaskan Dreams.
Dream of snow, dream of rain.
Some of us dream of hail.
Or sailing the Caribbean.
I dream of dancing on the beach... Pawley's Island personally.

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.
Threads when I remember to go there.

Harold meanwhild is saying.
Hello Texas:



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