PTC 9 in GOM Could be Harold If It Gets Its TS Wings. TS Franklin Headed Towards Hispaniola & Beyond a Hurricane? Gert a Goner. Emily Gone. Do We Watch Wave Train or the Caribbean For Next Big Storm? Models, Discussion and NHC Cones. Pick Your Flavor Cone...

Visible Image for August 21st.

Much to talk about.

Franklin in Caribbean catches our attention
Big burusting system yet still a work in progress.

NHC labels the players for us here.

Plug was pulled on Emily.

PTC9 in the GOM

Cone shows fast moving.

Fast hitter as in tomorrow.

Harold next name up..maybe Harold

Satellite image

It's a work in progress.

That's what a POTENTIAL Tropical Cyclone means.

Earthnull 

Short lived but close in so has priority currently.

NWS for Corpus Christi tells the story best.

Moving on ....

Next we have Franklin in the Caribbean.

Another work in progress. Not a Cane.

Franklin 50 MPH TS

Has to cross Hispaniola...

...then we see what it looks like.

NHC has it as a Hurricane later.

And a long tracker, big ACE maker at some point.

Good discussion by Papin.

Link at the bottom.

Let's talk Gert.

While it's here.

...GERT IS STILL THERE 

BUT IT COULD DISSIPATE AT ANY TIME..

That's the NHC headline on Gert.

Nuff said but let's take a look at it anyway.

Listen you cannot have this many systems in a small area and have them not interact in some way, some push one away, others suck the energy (moisture) out of the atmosphere leaving the other bone dry and dead in the water. It's also worth mentioning SAL (Saharan Dust) is not gone and the environment in the Atlantic is fairly dry for late August, juicing up some from all these short lived named systems and as we move towards September we have to remember things change and we will in theory NOT be dealing with One Hit Wonders but huge, scary spinning hurricanes somewhere that could become someone's Golden Oldie Memories. Franklin may surprise many down the road and nudge up the ACE with accumulated cyclone energy which is a measure many meteorologists use to judge a Hurricane Season. 

Finally we have the big question, the system in the Caribbean that many models hint at that could ride North through the Carib into the Gulf of Mexico and it's really anyone's guess what it does as it's far down the road. IF PT9 is Harold the next named storm is the I storm and historically they are ones to worry on. Current models show Franklin criss crossing Florida as many storms do and then riding the coast up towards Carolinas.  Even the crystal ball is a bit cloudly, so while we know the potential is there for IT to form it's still cloudy and the crystal ball has not yet cleared and so all I can say is remember there is the potential and models have been persistent sniffing this system out. 

Long range ensemble model.

Sniffing out that possible system

August 28th ... keep watching.

This image was posted by Jim Cantore.

Pink circle. 

WeatherNerds.org

Long range ensemble models.

Since I'm showing models.

It's way too relevant not to..

...maybe.

I've used this song often in the blog.

Posting it below.

My son saw her Lollapalooza in Chicago.

Said Carly Rae was awesome, one of the best acts. 

But this time of year...

...it's all about MAYBE.

In general our short range models agree on much.

As always follow the NHC they are the bottom line.

I'll upadte later today especially with reference to GOM

As always go to the local NWS...

...for PTC9 you can see the forecast.

Short term forecast!

Tropical Storm Warnings.

Expecting tropical storm winds.

Leaving you with a WV Loop.

Tropical Tidbits.

Note how Franklin pulses up, explodes.

NHC waiting to see the circulation develop more.

A lot of torrential, flooding rains for Hispaniola.

GOM a work in progress.

Staty tuned...

..sometimes maybes turn into realities.

Especially in 2023

Check back later

Chow for now ;)

Bobbistorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter, Instagram and threads.

Ps yeah I know how to spell it ...it's a personal joke!

Carly Rae below.... Models show maybes.

Remember that.

NHC shows the forecast.

A look at the models and what we can infer from their translation of the atmospheric movements. GFS shows Franklin becoming strong as well as the system that comes up from the Carib and towards GOM and likes the Florida West Coast.  Note this longer range model shows the High (Death Ridge/Heat Dome whatever ppl call it) letting go of it's grip. It's not a model output I'd buy, but definitely window shopping and may come back and buy it. Note GFS showed a fast hitting (as in tonight??) GOM Texas Low. Rely on discussion at the top from 11 AM from NHC, they are the bottom line not models. But people ask for models so I am showing them.

That's September 1st.

Low comes up, does that criss cross Florida thing.

Slides up along the coast ends up near OBX.

Some things that don't make sense so...

...will circle back and see what it does next run.

Tomorrow a fast moving L in GOM on EURO

Quick hitter according to the EURO

PTC8 next name is Harold.

Then further on down the road.... 

August 25th EURO (shorter range model)

Shows Franklin crossing over and weak.

A wave train continues with EURO vs GFS. 

A bubble of intense moisture in Carib but not closed yet.

Again these are all from Tropical Tidbits.

Icon keeps Franklin

Doesn't show much for PTC8

Wave train alive.

August 26th.

CMC below. 

Keeps Franklin alive and strong after hitting HAITI

Then the Carib cruiser crosses over Florida.

Hyperactive Wave Train.

GFS likes to Party.

CMC is always a bit hyperactive.

But often it's on to something early on.

Earthnull shows that IS a PTC in GOM

Tightening up by the minute.

As for X Hilary

That's a wild signature for possible problems

Moisture all the way to the Canadian border!

Watched live videos all night last night...

...again lived in LA was kind of person to me.

Lots of misery, widely advertised.

Link to discussion by Papin on Franklin, note he makes it clear there are uncertainities due to shear, structure and where exactly it crosses Hispaniola but the general belief it is stays a strong player in the NATL.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/211445.shtml?