Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Thursday, October 06, 2022

Updated 11PM TD 13 Forms in Caribbean. NHC Discussion Has it a Hurricane Eventually.---- What Surprises me About Ian?? More About the After Ian Coverage. Need Ppl to Remember Dangers of Storm Surge

I looked at this site a bit earlier.
I thought "that's impressie"
And we now have TD 13
Maybe TS Julia by tomorrow.

NHC had a busy night.
TD 12 is no longer.
TD 13 is born

Discussion from the NHC shows this should be a Hurricane before landfall, and they outright admit there intensity forecast may be conservative as some models have it much stronger. We will see tomorrow what it looks like when it's a bit further from land interaction over hot water. Time to see what it looks like once clear of land.  

Good night
keep reading if you haven't.
Thanks. Bobbi

5 PM Thursday.

Our South Caribbean Traveler.
Touring the ABC Islands.
N coast of South America.

NHC is playing hard ball tonight, as we have a 100% chance of development, but we are sending Recon in to figure out where the exact center is.. if it is there yet. Land interaction does seem to interfere some with center development. Earthnull shows a possible center as you can see below. 

One of my forever favorite songs is the Girl From Impanea, and as it just came to mind I'm going to put it here so I can listen a little. Never heard this rendition but going with it because that's the type of day it is.

A classic. Brazil not Venezuela ... good song.
We so love our beaches, don't we. I do.
Nothing like dancing on a beach....

Eventually we will find the center.
And will most like be Julia...
...will find 84 degree water!
Someone is gonna get a hurricane.

Cone at 5 PM below.

You can compare and contrast 11 AM cone below

TS Warning upfor Colombia!

From Colombia/Venezuela border to Riohacha

Question on where the center actually is...
..talked on in discussion.
We will find out soon enough!
Most salient information.
NHC has it as a  Hurricane 

Truth is time will tell and as I always say until a true center has formed and we get good recon data from that center any model is a very good stab in the dark. Models change in real time if details of the storm change, it's that simple. Stronger than expected it may want to move further to the North and weaker it may stay West all the way into the Pacific. Time will tell. For now, warnings are up for those in the path of PTC 13 most likely Julia as TD 12 is forecast to die off soon as seen in discussion below for TD 12.

Will update later at the top if anything changes!
Thanks for reading!

Keep reading from 10:30 AM below.

That's Invest 91L soon to be PTC 13
Pretty impressive for a Invest over land.

A larger picture shows more of the story.
It's cruising slowly into hot water.
towards the Caribbean Gyre... 

Zoom in on that you will see what I mean.
That is the cradle of birth for Caribbean Hurricanes.
But will Julia be a Hurricane?
Some models vote YES!

Most go westbound.
But still intensity models disagree as seen above.
Still bugs me when intensity models disagree.

Once past this part of South America.
What will PTC 13 probably Julia do?
Fiona did this as did Bonnie.
Earlier in the year TS Bonnie was there also.

PTC 13 looking good.
Julia in the making.

This is Invest 91L
Should get the name Julia.
As TD 12 never made the grade.

Makes total sense as TS Julia in 2016 actually formed as it was making landfall in Florida or kind of over land, I know because I was there combining a trip down to Florida with some storm chasing. Wild, copious amounts of rain in sheets pounding the Daytona Beach area from a tropical wave that was not really expected to have enough time to develop. It was the type of Tropical Storm Florida kids love though there was some minor damage but no one died. Julia did do extremely well over land. A much kinder storm than Ian and yet have to tell you on the way back from Miami to Raleigh, there was still some flooding in the marshy areas and damaged homes, signs, shacks and all the things that get messed up a bit in a marshy area in a tropical storm. Takes a while for storm surge of any kind to go down, even from a relatively mild tropical storm let alone a Cat 4 Hurricane. More on that in the longer read part of this blog.

While typing this I heard Mike doing his Mike's Facebook on YouTube (love options) and heard him saying the same thing I was typing about boats piled high and wondering if the media didn't talk enough on the dangers. We are both Florida kids at heart and perhaps more used to seeing this than transplants and retired folks who recently retired to the area. I don't know, but we need to get better next time and there will be a next time so we need to fix this and get better at getting that message out.

I'll update at 11 AM with the details.
Keep reading if you want to hear my thoughts on the post Ian coverage and how we make sure people REMEMBER THIS and LEARN from it. Pray people learn.

* **

What surprises me about Ian and every other Major Hurricane that made landfall is I'm surprised people are surprised. Perhaps we are doing something wrong if people do not expect to see the sort of destruction and carnage on barrier islands and beach front property from storm surge that we see from every Major Hurricane. Yes, size matters and I heard some people who rode out Charley say that they didn't expect it to be so bad but Ian was much larger and more deadly. Okay, not everyone is on social media saw the images of how small Charley was compared to Ian and how it could literally fit inside the center of Ian. Not everyone is on social media and many retired people lived in the path of Ian's eye and eyewall!  Larger storm means bigger storm surge, more rain, longer impacts. After Florence in North Carolina that was originally a Major Hurricane for what seemed ever, after it made landfall and the inland flooding across an area probably way bigger than Rhode Island possibly Connecticut it took what seemed like forever for the water to go down. I listened to the Weather Radio during that storm and after and all the weather radio talked about was the various rivers and how above crest they were for weeks, one by one they went below crest but on and on the weather radio talked about river levels from the flood weeks after Florence was no longer around. Purposely writing in write on sentences, because that is what inland flooding or river flooding is like, a run on problem that takes a long time to go away.

Ian came from the depths of the Caribbean, similar to Matthew that slammed NC with similar flooding as Florence, and all that water pushed along in it's huge structure just remains in some places and takes a long time to go away. Once it goes away the presence of mold, that grows way faster on the inside of homes that it takes to turn your white bread green. It surprises people, after Wilma in Key West people could not believe how much mold grew and how long it took to even find someone to come to their home do the beginning of mold remediation. PTC 13 is forecast to go West, but sometimes if they slow down they find a route out of the Caribbean vs cruising on into the Pacific. I hope that is not the case with PTC 13 probably TS Julia later this week! I won't mention which storm found a way... 

Every major hurricane boats are left piled on top of each otJher far inland when the bay or ocean receded. Why are people surprised? Do they think it will happen in the Florida Panhandle by Michael but not by Ian on Fort Myers Beach.

Why are people surprised? I understand denial, but in my mind I'd probably go "crap, knew this was gonna happen" and I'm saying since I was about 5 years old and saw what a hurricane did to a nearby island from a strong hurricane. It stuck in my mind, that's why I was obsessed with hurricanes. Maybe in today's world we have way too much thrown at us on multiple platforms, on TV, cable, HULU, YouTube name a social media platform and it all flows by seemingly unrealistic like special effects on your favorite action oriented show or channel. No, it's real, very real and no one should be surprised ever again.

Lastly, and this really bugs me and yeah a bit annoyed on this one in that perhaps there is too much attention given "those who rode out the storm" and less on the lives lost. I love The Weather Channel everyone knows that I am publically on record about loving TWC but I feel like they are looking for the best stories to do their storm episodes of people who survived disaster and while they are popular they are perhaps sending the wrong message without realizing it. I've seen one sunburned survivor after another that looks like they fought a battle with King Kong explaining how they swam to a truck or ran out of the mobile home as it began to collapse to a nearby 2 story house and then that began to collapase and yes it makes for great drama but perhaps it's the wrong message. I don't want someone on Tybee Island watching that thinking "Mabel, see how this guy survived!!" and then when a hurricane is on it's way next year or the year after and all they remember is some guy survived living in a trailer and "we have a big house on stilts and we will be fine" and maybe they won't be so fine. Maybe they will be two of the dead that are not getting play, two of the people who rode it out and their children or friends are not interviewed on how horrific their parents deaths was after basically good lives near the water they loved.

Maybe we need more focus on those who died and Lord knows there are enough dead people from this story to focus on than the drama of those who survived. Or measure it out, half and half and show the miracle of survival with the sad reality of death from a Major Hurricane thinking it could be riden out on a sliver of land in the Bay.  Honestly, I have seen very few channels showing videos of the dead and the mourning and while I love miracle stories truly, the message being given is "you can ride out a storm" sometimes even as bad and horrific as Ian was or Michael was or Irma was and the list will go on and on over time.

Make the message real. Tell both sides of the story. If you want to leave the message "don't try this with Idalia" and that's the 2023 "I" named storm that replaced Irma. 

And, if there are alligators and snakes in the water, show them live on these hurricane episodes covering After Ian stories. That may discourage people from staying next time a Major Hurricane moves steadily towards a deadly landfall.

That's it for my rant. 

Listen it's like childbirth, honestly, ask a woman what it's like while they going through transition in a Natural Childbirth and they will probably tell you "shut up" but ask them about childbirth and the new baby years later and they will go into every glorious detail. This may seem strange to compare a hurricane with a baby being born, but people forget and get distracted and seem to forget the bad part and remember the amazing survival story relieving it over and over. 

I've heard more Old Timers (who were really old) tell me in detail how their family survived the 1926 Great Miami Hurricane, stories they heard from their parents experienced as small children the water rushed from the ocean and bay onto the tip of Miami Beach and flooded the bottom floors of their apartment building and they all went up to the third floor and watched down into the garden like middle area of the apartment complex and saw waves in their apartment complex and thought they'd all die and yet somehow they miraculously survived to tell about it. 

The architect Norman Giller who helped make Miami Modern was the old man who told me that story of him as an 8 year old watching the waves floating through what was the garden part of the building below where he lived and yet his family survived the 1926 Hurricane. My grandfather was close friends with his father, they worked together building homes in paradise back when and well.... yes you can survive, but while showing those stories show the stories as well of the people who did not survive the fury of Ian. Lord knows there are enough of them to make a few segments reminding the viewers not everyone survived. Anyone who has ever driven across Julia Tuttle Causeway going to Miami Beach knows that landmark, iconic "garden like" green building on the North side of the street. My pediatrician was there, I once had a party there after a Prom (really) and worked for a chiropractor there .... know that building so well. Mr Giller's office was upstairs, it's known as the Giller Building, as he miraculously survived the 1926 Hurricane on Miami Beach about where the red dot is on the map, but many floated away and did not survive. Balance out the stories so people know how many died, not just about who survived. 

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram
Twitter mostly weather
Instagram whatever....


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