Hurricane Harbor: UPDATED Midnigh 85 MPH Hurricane - Recon 100 MPH Gusts! The Day AFTER in Florida - The Day Before in Carolinas. Ian Part 2 - Flooding Likely For Carolinas. High Winds Possible. Tropical Storm Warnings UP!

I wasn't sure I was going to update as the 11 PM, while 5 MPH more than earlier, has been an extrapolation of the previous advisory for the most part. Models tend to show landfall further N than Charleston, but again as I said do not focus on #Charleston but #Carolinas. Weather arrives far in advance across the Carolinas of the eye coming near the coast. And, Ian is stengthening over the warm waters of the Gulfstream.

This graphic from West on air tonight shows the problem.

Wild weather with gusts of TS force are out ahead of the center.

No this is not your nomal Hurricane.

But it has Hurricane force winds of 85 MPH at Midnight.

Not sure what they will be at 5 AM.

But I wouldn't be surprised to see 90 MPH.

Or higher.

Ian has a nasty history of violent weather.

Rarely do I hear talk of 50 MPH winds in the Triangle.

Again IAN hasn't made landfall and the weather is here.

So take this seriously.

Stay home if possible.

Hunker down...

...keep phones charged in case power goes out.

Normally in the Carolinas we don't expect to get much even when we have a Winter Weather Warning or a Tropical Storm Warning. Flooding happens in the places prone to flooding and down by the coast it's a mess. But IAN seems to be the exception to the rule so far on many levels, so prepare for the worst, hope for the best and hopefully it will be kinder to the Carolinas than it was to Florida, but I wouldn't bet money on it.

Ps speed could move up and be faster.

Winds could be stronger.

Too many unknowns.

So prepare and stay safe!

Night....... Will update in the morning.

Til then this is as relevant as it gets.

Stay safe!

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It's rare for the NHC to put out an update 15 minutes after the 11 PM advisory. Recon found stronger winds and gusts of 100 MPH so the wind intensity was upgraded to 85 MPH from the 80 MPH wind speed at the original advisory. That's fairly impressive intensifying for what should be a tired hurricane relic looking to retire somewhere. But, no Ian just keeps on going.

Tropical Storm Warning in Red

Hurricane Warning near the coast.

Models in agreement towards landfall.

But they disagree down the road.

Best not to look at the models that loop about or go to the South later, it's a complex situation and as Ian goes Hybrid it has multiple components in it and often as they move East eventually out to sea they do strange things and that is what those models are seeing. Other models take this up towards Pennsylvannia so don't focus on models focus on your local weather people and the NHC infomation. You know, go straight to the source.

The interactive cone...

..always shows stages of wind field.

Discussion from the NHC mentions models.

Most of the models pulled to the right.

So cone was a bit further East than 11 AM.

Many models bring it in closer to Myrtle Beach.

Again new cone is at 11 PM.

Understand these beach cities are up and down the coastline. They are my beaches, places I love and that we often travel to so when in Myrtle Beach we often drive down and spend the day at Pawley's Island as it's my happy place. Sometimes when we stop in Savannah on the way back from Miami we drive up the coast to Charleston for the sheer beauty of the trip where I take in the Low Country and enjoy the feel, the smell and the lay of the land. So don't get lost in the drama of #CHARLESTON in the way many got caught up in the media frenzy of #TAMPA and Ian came in to the South of Tampa in an area where many insisted they were sure it would go to Tampa and didn't expect it to come in where it did. That happens every single time on the West Coast of Florida. Don't get caught up in Hashtags trending on Twitter or the media frenzy of going to the more well known city and know it can make landfall at a small beach no one has every head of...

An example being Hurricane Matthew.

Despite talk on Charleston it made landfall by the red dot.
McClellanville, a rural town to the NE of Charleston.

Don't get locked in to media frenzy.

The whole area from Daytona to Wilmington NC...

...is getting wild raging surf aka IAN.

This is a current image from Myrtle Beach.

I'll leave the link below.

I often watch sunrise on that site..

Yes, it's 66 degrees.

Foamy beach already.

My Tweet showing how close landfall models were.

Yet, strong weather sets up different ahead of it.

AGAIN WEATHER moves AHEAD of landfall.

A hard message to convey.

People are used to the opposite.

This is an image of Wes in Raleigh on air trying to explain that at NOON TOMORROW the WEATHER has already spread out into the forecast area yet Hurricane Ian has not yet made landfall or is about to. Normally people expect the opposite and yet this is a tricky storm to explain as I said it is a Hurricane but it's moving towards Hyrbrid status like Sandy did and well if you remember once there was Hurricane Grace and then it all became The Perfect Storm a huge Gale system. Weather spreads out, up into Virgina and further up the coast so this isn't just about the Carolinas.

Don't get lost in the name, prepare for the weather!

That's my main message tonight.

That and I have a friend who knows weather and he always says the problem is people always prepare for the last hurricane they had and the new hurricane brings it's own surprise. This is not Matthew, it's not Florence and it's not Fran it's IAN and IAN has a deadly history of flooding and strong violent winds close to the eye, as well as storm surge on the beach and places where we often have flooding overwash the coastal roads. Locally in Central NC we could get flash flooding in the places that always flood and I'll say it again rain + terrain = Flash Flooding! 40 to 50 MPH gusts and a stray, random tornado. This is NOT JUST a Tropical Weather event as the weather is on the chilly side and tomorrow it will feel more like a violent Cold Front with temperatures in the 60s but with tropical feel to the air.

As for the devastation in Ft. Myers area and the continued search for those who are injured or possibly dead under flood waters the search goes on while some clean up know it will be a long time before that part of the country will be the same again. Nature returns to it's state but homes by the coast that storm surge trashed and roofs that were damaged or blown away will take a while to repair as the devastation is across a wide area and that area moved NE with Ian to Orlando where there is more damage and then the NE coast of Florida where flooding closed major highways. It takes time to put things back together and more so to get final totals for how many died, how many are missing and how many were injured.

Do not assume it won't be anything "because it's not a Cat 4 Hurricane like it was down in Florida" which I heard about ten times today as I listened to people talking in TJMaxx when I went to a walk to get away from it all a bit. No, it won't be like it was when it was a Cat 4 but we have pines and oaks that crack and snap in the Carolinas so prepare now and don't wait for Ian to make landfall on the coast as it will be too late as the weather will aleady be there.

Expect surprises but don't expect this just to go away because you can't wrap your head around it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BDPw6Y2QSZU

As I said I do love Charleston although I love Savannah more. And, I love Pawley's Island and Myrtle Beach so this here is very personal for me and again I have a Tropical Warning that means I should expect to feel tropical storm force winds tomorrow!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z4znyqGIWH8 one of the best songs Jimmy Buffett ever did...

Keep reading if you didn't earlier today...

..thanks for reading...

Pics from Pawley's Island, SC

From website of the photographer...

https://www.tanyaackerman.com/

* * *

Noon

From Raleigh where I have a Tropical Storm Warning!

Please go to www.weather.gov find your county.

Click on your county.

Showing NWS maps as this is more than the NHC.

It's not just about their Cone.

The area from Savannah to Wilmington, North Carolina are under the gun for strong winds, flooding rains as the "center" of Ian moves towards Charleston, SC. This area is one large beach area sort of anchored by those two cities with Charleston the well known middle. It's filled with beautiful Low Country, Marhes and beaches such as Georgetown, Pawleys Island, Murrels Inlet and up the coast to the NC line to Wilmington that will get high surf, flooding rains and strong winds. We aren't talking about a strong hurricane we are talking a high end Tropical Storm or borderline Hurricane, but the impacts will be the surf and the rain and rain in the Carolinas where there are River Basins and terrain always mean flash flooding probable. A river basin is the area where crops often grow as it's fertile land and many people live wonderful lives until they flood; they are basically a flood plain in the river basin and that is why the Carolinas are prone to repeated flooding from tropical systems such a Floyd, Fran, Florence, Matthew and many other weaker storms that had smaller floods but flooding none the less!

Models shown from www.windy.com above.

All converge on general Charleston area for a 2nd landfall.

It could be further South or North but nearby.

To complicate matters these impacts are FAR from the center of the Cone that tracks the EYE so do NOT think you're fine if you are a newbie to the Carolinas and not in the eye but just the opposite. The long duration rain event that could go on way after Ian winds down as it mixes it up with another feature that lingers. For example the forecast for Raleigh below is an area not in the Cone but in the Zone for weather impacts! The two images side by side show this problem. The WHITE CONE hooking to the left on the 4th and 5th day is the "wind" and "center" of Ian, but the image on the right is the heavy rain totals and possibilities for flooding in the same area that is to the right of the cone on the left. The large orange circle in the image on the right is the WIND impacts of Ian which go FAR out from the cetner of the Cone. I sure hope that makes sense to you, you may have to read it twice. If it doesn't and you are new to this area ask an old timer and they will explain how the weather drama doesn't always follow the inside of the cone.

Some conditions from cities dealing with IAN currently.

High gusts along the Florida coast.

Some flooding going on as seen below.

An Iconic landmark for many of us NASCAR fans.

As as he can always be so dramatic and cute....

Dabuh does it his way.

That there is the center of IAN

leaving land, moving out over the Ocean!

And now the drama begins.

No real intermission here between Acts.

Ian on Earthnull

So personally I'm tired and taking a break for a few hours to just "take it all in" and watch the impact of IAN in Northeast Florida an area I am no stranger to as we spend a lot of time in the Jacksonville/Ormond Beach aera on trips to and from Miami. I need to check in with a few friends who gave me the "thumbs up" symbol last night that they were okay in the area where Ian made landfall. They stayed as they have people there they work with who may need help after the storm and they are okay, not sure on their friends and people they were worried on in their synagogue. I want to watch some video from friends of mine who chased Ian. I want to just rest a little bit and take it in. On an oddly personal note our car is in the shop in Raleigh and being worked on and as that area is prone to flooding they "moved the car" so work on the car will be delayed though the rental will be nice I'm sure. Crabtree Creek in Raleigh floods often and many of the car dealerships are adjacent to it and at the mere suggestion of a tropical system they move everything to higher ground fast.

Again you learn from history when you live in a region that has repeated tropical events that are all similar but always in some way unique. Kind of like we are as people, we have commonalities and yet we have our own unique quirks and qualities that make us who we are...

The clean up in Florida is just beginning. So far there is one official death from Ian and sadly I'm pretty sure there will be more and if not that would be a miracle. Way too many people stayed in old apartments and homes on barrier islands where lanbdfall occurred. I'm still unclear why the Naples Fire Department and Police did not move their vehicles, especially that brand new Fire Truck to hire ground as it was obvious they were going to have severe flooding even if IAN was just cruising by on it's way somewhere else. I mean the car dealerships in Raleigh have moved their cars already but the Fire Department that should have been aware of the dangers did not? I'm sure there's more to that story, I don't like to judge other people's decisions but it seems a no brainer. I can rant later on the press making the message by talking nonstop about Tampa and Ian and many I spoke to personally told me "well they thought it was going to Tampa" and perhaps that's partly denial and how we live in the tropics always hoping a hurricane goes somewhere else but the message needs to delivered that it is not just about Landfall but the STORM SURGE and FLOODING that often reaches far inland, but rearranges everything at the coast as if a bulldozer was sent in to demolish what was to build some new shopping mall. After Michael that message should have been clear, and yet it wasn't. We have to do better!

Stay safe and keep watching the tropics. I hate to tell you the obvious but just as Ian is not done with us yet, the tropics are not done with us yet.