Tropics Busy Still. Red 70% Near Africa. Yellow 20% Caribbean Cruiser. Julia & Karl Next 2 Names Up. #IAN a MEAN HURRICANE That Loved Making Landfall, 3 Times in USA & in Cuba Still Without Power ... No One Should Have Been Surprised By the Damage... Life By the Beach or a Barrier Island, Beautiful But a Hurricane May Wash It All Away.
Yes, the tropics are still alive and it's not over yet. The National Hurricane Center is monitoring two areas for development. The area off of Africa has a higher chance of developing and a large tropical wave is moving westbound with a 20% chance of developing over the next five days. Models obviously take the red one up into the Eastern Atlantic, usually that means it doesn't make it across the Atlantic except for rare Florence sort of hurricanes. The yellow circle has the potential for tropical trouble closer to our side of the world vs the far side of the world for most people reading this blog.
So while the red circle that may become Julia, though no guarantees this season on which area gets which name as a few fast bloomers stole the name away from what we thought would be the slow bloomer even before the "Hermine" wave became Ian. But in general Julia moves up and up and away.
That looks like one robust wave doesn't it?
It's got problems.
To it's North there is an Upper Level Low.
What looks like a "white hurricane" is an ULL.
That's why the NHC expectations are still low.
Yellow, 20% in 5 days.
That should go up over time...
...but time will tell.
No guarantees yet.
This map I use shows potential.
Yes off the coast of the Carolinas is a splotch.
We can watch Ian's remains in real time.
Carib wave has real potential.
As does an area in the SW Carib.
The Caribbean wave is huge, but it's being plagued by dry air and an Upper Level Low currently. Once into the Caribbean conditions should improve. We also have seen that happen this year before haven't we? So for now the focus is on dealing with the debris, death and destruction that Ian left behind from Florida to the Carolinas. The death toll is a moving target and could go up but some have it way above 70 and often are reported as "deaths in Florida" and even the most reliable sources have different numbers. The New York Times won't even give a number on their website though they list deaths from the Caribbean into the Carolinas as seen below.
As for Ian and the horrific destruction it carried with it literally everywhere it went as I wrote long last night about Ian. This morning I'm talking on the tropics and the ongoing topic online of "why would anyone live at the beach" after seeing images of Fort Myers Beach and how badly the beautiful city of Naples fared far to the South of the actual landfall but in the path of the destructive storm surge.
I don't want to get into the fray on the concept of living on a beach or barrier island. I lived on Miami Beach for years and as a child I grew up near an itsy bitsy Triangular Park in the Roads Section, a 3 minute drive to the bay (less if you didn't catch the light) and I have kids who live in a Condo at the edge of the Miarmi River by the bay. I grew up parked by the sea wall with my mother often at any time during the day she was in a mood and wanted to sit by the water, and trust me that was often; the breeze on that point of land is incredible almost every day of the year. When I was older we moved to Miami Beach and lived 4 blocks from the ocean and it was wonderful, I did it then as my parents moved there and I moved back with my husband after living in California where I waited for the "Big One" to happen but it didn't happen while I lived there and then waited on Miami Beach every hurricane s(eason to see if that was the hurricane season that would rearrange my life. In 1992 we thought Andrew would be that hurricane but it "bobbled" South one degree or so and it became Homestead's hurricane though Miami Beach did get a hurricane just not a Category 5 Hurricane!
Small triangle just West of the 95 sign ...
...my grandfather built a home there.
The breeze came up the diagnol street it was awesome.
I have two kids that live at the mouth of the river.
Locals know it can change with a hurricane.
You take your chances, you live in the moment.
Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.
Life in the tropics with tropical weather.
Just W of that red marker is where I lived.
Where adulting happened to me.
The view was impressive from that street.
Looks nicer today than it was then ...
Little boats docked and a low sea wall.
Small buildings clustered on a street...
..that always flooded in the rain.
Better drains built by builders of luxury condos..
...help but still floods when it rains.
The block is literally one block long.
Honestly as a child I loved hurricanes, every Miami kid did as they were the only way you got a vacation from school and pretty much the only extreme weather we had other than a strong African Dust Outbreak or a very small tornado somewhere with an approaching cold front; hail was also always fun in a place where it's usually sunny and summery all year long. In the winter the palm fronds dance nice and it's a welcome break from the sweltering heat and humidity. So Miami kids always love hurricanes, hate tourists and wonder what snow is really like to walk on knowing it's not like walking on beach sand.
The first year I was married to my first husband we had this incredible little two bedroom apartment with a view of Biscayne Bay from one of the bedrooms. That room was filled with wedding gifts and we'd sit there and watch the bay or stand at the end of the street and watch the sunrise. Hurricane Season came a few months after we moved in and one day I looked out at the bay then looked back at everything we had and for the first time in history I was an adult. Adulting came early on that ittle street that flooded EVERY TIME IT RAINED HEAVY as we were half a block in from the bay and we always parked on West Avenue where the flooding ususually ended; the apartment never flooded but it wasn't until that moment I understood how my parents felt when I'd dance around laughing "we're gonna get a hurricane" I mean they never danced... though my mother did always take me to the ocean before a storm. Go Mamma on that one! And, yes I took my kids to the beach before storms and they still go to the beach before storms but lately Miami has been lucky and all the big ones tuned away and recurved out to sea. It's hard for me to convince them a hurricane will make landfall some day, as except for the older ones who remember Andrew (and live far inland...) the younger ones think "yeah right" but one day one will slam into Miami Beach or Brickell or Coconut Grove where my son's office is at Compass Realty on the edge of the Bay that he manages and daily gives thanks for the view he has from his office. You don't take things forgranted at water's edge.
Maybe it's a lesson in life to live at the beach or near the bay or on a canal in Coral Gables. You always know that a storm can come and change everything, for old timers whose families have lived in Florida for five generations you know hurricanes happen and hit land whether you want them to or not. Growing up in paradise I never took it forgranted. I loved the views of the sunset from every place we ever lived as homes are generally low and very few large trees obscure the horizon. You can walk to the ocean, the beach, the canal or whatever water is near you whether you are rich or poor. People line up and fish on the Old Rickenbacker Causeway all night long, many poor, working class families but the joy of being together at the water fishing is filled with music and laughter and I know as I've watched sunset there with my youngest son many times. Most tourists don't know the place, but the locals do.
The Old Rickenbacker Bridge was a low causeway where kids used to fish, and kids still fish as cars race by on the huge tall bridge built because every hurricane had some boat or barge crash into the bridge and taking it out as well as the only way to drive to Key Biscayne. The old causeway is still there, close to the water and a good spot for fishing, walking or watching sunset. The tall new bridge has great views and some people cycle over it which is only for strong cyclists but oh the view. Some kids, perhaps one of my sons, have been warned away as they skateboard off some of the ramps which obviously is not smart and the police discourage. By the way the kid who did the extreme skateboarding, he has back problems and teases me he should have listened to everyone when he did that but he did. It's a great place to walk but it's a high climb over the tall bridge and not for the faint of heart or inexperienced bridge walkers. Again they built the TALL bridge because the low one always was damaged on every single hurricanen in some way.
And that is what it is all about..... the view and the life style.
Do you want to live your life safe as possible in quiet area far from the ocean hoping you never seen inland flooding or do you want a view of the beach? You can live a safe life and someone slams into you while you are driving safely to work down in the suburbs. There is no guarantee ever on life or death, health or illness and people choose where they want to live. I'd rather live closer to the ocean, but my husband's job is here and here is a good place in Raleigh, North Carolina as I have options to go up to the mountains, hang around here or take a drive to the beach two and half hours away. North Carolina's capital used to be New Bern, one of my favorite places up here, but after two back to back hurricanes that flooded and destroyed Tryon Palace built on the waters edge they suddenly decided to move the capital to Raleigh far inland to the North in the middle of the state near Isaac's Tavern but I'm pretty sure they were less worried on securing the Western edge of the state and more concerned about not getting washed away in a hurricane constantly. New Bern is way prettier than Raleigh (sorry but true) and it's an easy drive down for the day to visit the birthplace of Coca Cola and feel the breeze by the park that was underwater by Hurricane Florence and then drive back after sunset by the river.
Weather changes everything from history to politics. Geopolitics is one of my degrees and every war that was fought was often fought for better ground, better land that grows wheat better or some natural resource. Russia/Ukraine is an example as you really can't grow wheat in much of Russia and they have minerals that Russia has tapped into for eons before Ukraine formed as a country in 1991 the summer before Hurricane Andrew slammed into Homestead Florida.
Cboose where you live wisely and if you live by the ocean or bay or a wide river make sure you have good insurance and know what you will take with you if you have to evacuate and know you may lose everything you left behind. My family owned property for years on Anna Maria Island as ancestor was one of the early developers who sold real estate and kept 3 lots 2 of which were often under water and high tide. At some point the lots were sold, somehow my mother received monies from the lots and my cousin and I often thought on how it would be nice to actually live there. My cousin, being an old Miami kid who grew up near that Triangular Park near the Bay said to me once "oh I'd like to keep one lot but I'd use it to park an RV once in a while, fish and relax by the beach I wouldn't build a house there" and yet many do. My son in the Gables has a friend who lives waterfront in Sarasota and recently updated the property he just bought, really beautiful I might add. He got lucky and he's okay, people further South in Naples with the same view are not okay. It's sheer luck sometimes and sometimes a Category 5 Hurricane wobbles a degree or two South sparing Miami but destroying a town further South in the same way Tampa was spared and Punta Gorda was not spared.
Leftovers of Ian are causing gale force winds along the coast and time will tell if it's remnant center makes it back over water but today is about getting a rest from Ian for me, but there is no rest for those whose lives were trashed by it's deadly force .... a mean hurricane that made landfall 3 times in the US and before that it made landfall in Cuba that is still mostly without power.
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram
Twitter mostly weather and Instagram whatever
2 songs resonate today in my head, one is about far away distant storms that might be forming and life on a salty piece of land.
posted by BobbiStorm @ 7:41 AM
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