A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!
Saturday, October 01, 2022
IAN A Remnant Low Over Virgnina. 70% Red Circle Near Africa. Personal Thoughts on IAN Hurricanes and Life on a Barrier Island or on the Water... Beautiful But Dangerous in a Hurricane.
IAN is doing Virginia tonight.
As a remnant low...
Not officially an entity anymore.
Far away is another system forming.
It will be Julia if it gets a name.
70% at 8 PM.
Ian still has models though...
Could it reform over water once again?
It's possible. It's 2022.
Ivan did why not Ian.
Not going to discuss that tonight.
Taking a rest tonight from models.
Lots of purple splotches!
Strong signature still Ian!
Ian does not want to die.
Hurricane Season ain't over yet!
Ensemble models doing their modeling thing.
But nothing to talk on yet.
Trees are down. Power companies worked all day.
Restoring power, clearning debris.
A lot of that going on in Raleigh today.
We got lucky. Very lucky.
Not sure people realize how lucky.
But I do!
Note rest of blog a long read.
Read, but letting you know in advance.
I needed to write tonight and that's good.
Sometimes you just gotta write and let go of things.
& & &
The Tropical Weather update is at the top of this blog today. I'm tired and taking some time to blog, to write and to journal my thoughts on IAN and life. On life on barrier islands, small thin barrier islands and living close to the Gulf of Mexico in a small home or trailer or old apartment building built in the 1960s that is a nice place to live most every day of the year but not during a Category 4 Hurricane. Evacuation or staying at a safe hurricane shelter nearby is the only way to go, yet many choose not to as they either believe they will be okay or they think the storm is being hyped or they just don't want to leave their home with all their memories to sleep in a hurricane shelter and decide to take their chances. Every time I have ever interviewed anyone after a hurricane that rode out the hurricane in horrific conditions they told me they'd rather be in their own home than a shelter somewhere with strangers. I mean honestly, every time they gave me some version of that line. A friend in Key West told me after Hurricane Wilma, his 80 year old mother told him she is "never leaving Key West, if she dies there - she'll die there she's not evacuating to Miami again!" and she died of old age in Key West in the home she loved with her multiple pets and belongings. I knew her well, she lived across the street from the home I stayed at all the time by a very close friend and she was old, stubborn and done making that trip up the overseas causeway to Miami for a hurricane that never hit the small rock in the Atlantic that dares many a hurricane to hit it and yet very few actually do. Key West is 4 miles long and 1 mile wide, my family lived there in the 1880s when it was a wealthy, busy, bustling town in what seemed like the middle of the beautiful blue ocean. They lived in Tampa for the 1921 Hurricane and they all had a fierce respect for the power of Hurricanes in the tropics!
So feel free to read along. There are some things I wanted to put here for the record to refer back to and again it's my own personal hurricane harbor, or was meant to be, where I could write safely on anything that came to mind tropical or otherwise. Do NOT try to decipher my comments that were often cryptic when annoyed at someone or amused by someone as muses can be amusing and amused sometimes too!
I started this blog as a single mother, divorced raising various children living home who were small children or teenagers. It was a good source of amusement to me and some of my weather and writing friends who chuckled way too much at things they understood more than the general public. During the Hurricane Season it's meant to be a source of information, help and often times afterwards such as during Hurricane Katrina when Michelle Malkin was linking to my blog for information. I didn't really know who she was at the time but my son called me from New York after Katrina when I had no power because of Hurricane Katrina in Miami and he asked why I wasn't blogging as Michelle Malkin was linking to me. I gave him my password, that I changed shortly afterwards, and let him type my words given over the phone to him that he posted. Life got interesting at times. More interesting than I will write about but it was the best of times, the worst of times and times made more fun by blogging and talking with my close weather friends as well as writer friends who do love weather! You know snow falling or standing at a beach before a hurricane during a full moon and reaching out their arms wide to embrace the beauty of the moment that they will later put into something they write.
That is what writers do, we write.
My hope was I could help educate, communicate and explain in a more laid back, often lite way information to the general public and other weather friends as we tropically would shoot the tropical breeze online in message boards or on the phone late at night. Good times. The blog grew quite an audience before Twitter even appeared on the horizon. I've never asked for money nor made a fancy site begging for money and honestly I used the blog as a part of my resume at times for freelance writing on many topics especially history. I've made good money over time writing and it's had it's benefits, that's all I'll say. Those who know, well they know.
So all you need to know tonight is the dangers of storm surge if you live near the ocean, the dangers of staying on a small barrier island in a Category 4 Hurricane, the dangers of not believing the intensity of a hurricane when the NHC puts out a careful advisory package with information on flooding and earliest arrival of tropical storm force winds but instead of going to the NHC page all many people remember is the one Cone that resonated or a Meme they saw somewhere and that's sad.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ This link is to their page, I link to it all the time. I've known many forecasters there personally and they work hard to put out the best advisory they can to give the most information and yet many spend more time on other sites and just remember the Cone they saw that their brother posted the night before. Do not be that person please.
Barrier Islands are there actually as a form of protection to the mainland. Over time sandbars become larger, trees grow on them naturally as some bird drops a seed, someone picnicing there does or a coconut floats over from another island. They were originally raw, beautiful places where people would row out to and spend a Sunday having a picnic enjoying nature, the simplicity and beauty it had to offer and often rowing back at sunset. Kind of like how my son goes out with the family on his boat and heads in watching the sunset. Some things change, others never do.
Over time builders came and developed them often dredging land to enlarge them to twice the size they were originally. Then people came and bought the homes wanting to live there with views of the ocean or the bay or the bogue or the sound depending on where they live and whatever they call it to live out their dream. Some people built businesses to cater to the tourists who came to collect shells or shark teeth or coconuts with the words Key West or Miami Beach written on them to take back to share with their friends back home in Ohio r Wisconsin or even Rhode Island that has a beach, but a different beach than Miami Beach. Maine beaches are beautiful, but mostly used in the summer and yet in Florida you can live by the beach 365 days of the year and never have to shovel snow!
It delivered more wind than rain, though it poured heavy for a few hours on the back side of Ian as it moved North on it's away towards Virginia. The gusts were in the mid 50 mph range here where I live, but honestly they were few and far between. Steady drizzle, stronger rain, stronger winds, then not so strong then stronger and often the power flickered yet didn't give out at my home.
In Raleigh a lot of trees came down.
Very hit or miss, literally, here and there.
If you lost trees or one fell on your home
IAN was a BIG event.
If you not and you barely missed a beat
and the power stayed on.
..In was "no big deal"
News headlines below.
Trees down, power lines down, power out.
Most places just a bit messy.
Leaves littered the street.
Fresh leaves, green leaves.
Small twigs, branches.
A real tree trimmer storm in Raleigh.
Our lights flickered Friday late in the day often, but our power held. Being honest, I'm surprised and happy. I set up little tea lights in a few muffin tins placed carefully in case we lost power Friday Night. As we keep the Jewish Sabbath we preset lights on timers and if the power went out, well it would be out. When you do that with tea lights they are safter and the tinfoil tends to brighten the light they give off. I did that after Andrew, but after 2005 when we lost power three times in Miami from hurricanes I perfected small things that make a difference. No I don't have a generator, but I live in a large apartment complex that maintains the property well and very rarely does our power go out when others near by lose power. The home we had on a small cul de sac was prone to losing power faster. I like it here :) I also have a nice covered balcony to sit and watch the snow fall and the pines dance in a tropical storm. A few good friends lost trees of varying size especially from homes that faced the South and had large trees. Otherwise we were lucky.
This morning I walked over to our Synagogue wearing leggings, a warm dress and my favorite hoodie as it was chilly, still windy and there was occasional light drizzle. Love the weather here, you can have tropical weather and a cold front on the same day. Sometimes we get temperatures near the 80s in the early Spring and then it snows before the week is out. If you like weather and the seasons it's a great place to live. If you want more action try the mountains or the beach, as they are more prone to blizzards or hurricanes and yet Raleigh has seen both blizzards and hurricanes.
So in general we lucked out and dodged a Fran or Hazel sort of Hurricane but that said four people died in North Carolina from accidents related to Ian, which is frustrating because if only people would stay home and not drive off a street into a swampy area driving at night in a Tropical Storm they'd most likely be alive. If only people would learn the lesson from Florence and Matthew where many of the deaths were people who drove into flooded areas or into swampy areas at night insisting on checking on their property somewhere and were found dead, drowned in a flooded area or a swampy patch they couldn't see in the middle of the night. I get the need to want to check on friends, your business and other things you need to do after a storm but wait til daylight! I told friends who lived in Southwest Florida and stayed (not in waterfront homes) that they should stay inside AFTER Ian passed, do NOT go out at night and wait til daylight to check on all the things that people check on. Their house, my closest friend, was luckily okay, but the power is out and will be for a while so they drove to Miami for Shabbos to stay by a friend and will go back tomorrow. Good idea.
Ian was just a mess and hurricanes have been messy forever and still are whenever a Cat 4 or Cat 5 rams into someone's previously tranquil life in a tropical paradise. The 1921 Hurricane that hit Tampa and the 1926 Great Miami Hurricane destroyed lives, smashed property and dragged people clinging to trees and debris out to sea to death. We won't even get into the Galveston Hurricane, feel free to read the book when you have time if you did not aleady read it. Link below.
This is nothing new, the only thing that is new is it seems is despite all the warning, pleas of officials to evacuate and to take precautions people just refuse to believe it'll be that bad or that the storm is as dangerous as everyone says. In the old days there was no television, only radio and no National Hurricacne Center that tracks the hurricane since before it formed. In the old says in Miami often a few Seminoles came down the Miami River in their canoe and warned friends they had that a "bit storm was coming" from signs they learned over time. Now we have warnings and information and images from orbiting satellites in space and yet many seem shocked that the hurricane is on their doorstep or backyard dock!
I don't get it. Shelters are available and yet people just refuse to go to a shelter. They want to stay in "their home" ... I hear that over and over. Shelters began opening up to pets after people died in Andrew refusing to leave their kitten or puppy and they yet people still don't go to the shelter. It's not a political issue either, people die in every hurricane in Florida and elsewhere refusig to evacuate no matter how many times they are told to or move to a stronger place, shelter or leave. Shelters are free and they are under used in many places. Denial exists and it lives strong no matter of political afflilation, ethnicity nor religion. It just is what it is and it's hard to convey to people who say "if its my time I guess I'll die" rather than leave a trailer park literally on the water in an area as low lying as low lying gets. It's not always an economic problem as I spoke to some who were ready to jump on a plane to get out but waited too long and the airport was closed, they just didn't think it would really come to Fort Myers!
Some larger barrier islands have homes able to withstands a hurricane and some even have shelters (in the Florida Keys there are shelters on some of the Keys that are more elevated) and honestly not all barrier islands are created evenly. Some are huge, wide and have homes built to hurricane codes as well as high rises built to withstand a Category 5 Hurricane. Fort Myers beach was not such a place and neither was Sanibel Island.
Champlain Towers was such a building, built to withstand anything including a Category 5 Hurricane and I know as I worked in the office for a while after taking over that job from a friend. Built like a rock, but still it came down and despite what we think we know we don't know as it's still all conjecture. Some say poor maintenance and many point to the construction of a huge luxury tower condo immediately to it's North next to Champlain Tower's pool as the reason. And, knowing the property well it's very likely that did damage that would not have happened had precautions been taken or rules not changed that helped the developers of the new huge, hi rise. A street, really a lane was approved to put in between the two properties that had never been there before. It was approved by the local city after donations from the developer were given and assurances made as to it's safety and maintenance.
I'm a bit off topic here but it relates as it was built on a barrier islands to standards to withstand a Category 5 Hurricane and yes but it still bugs me more than a year later as one of my close friends (who lived 2 doors down for 11 years) died with her husband in a building that was built to withstand a Category 5 Hurricane. We lived on Mid-Beach back in the day in nice homes several blocks from the ocean, but at some point she rented an apartment there to be closer to family who lived nearby. Because articles in the news cited poor maintenance by that building vs the other cloned building a block to the North with the same design and same developer, same floor plan as a possible reason for the collapse. Maintenance may have been not as good at Champlain Towers North vs Champlain Towers South (the clone building) and many of the people who lived in CT North were renting as was my friend Itty but could maintenance have been so bad for it to just collapse? I doubt it. I knew that building well. But the developers of the nearby luxury tower had a street put in on a piece of land that had never been there to drive trucks in and out a few feet from the pool at CT North and they spent months pile driving before the actual construction and nonstop flow of trucks to build the tower and during the pile driving the neighbors in CT North complained nonstop about the how they could "feel" the vibrations in the building. Residents in CTN complained all during the building, but they were ignored as every resident of a Condo watching a building go up next to them often complains on the noise. Hindsight is indeed 20/20.
If you Google why it collapsed you get this below!
According to Google this is part of the "reason"
The new luxuty tower to the left.
CTN to the right.
CTN pool deck in question next to the road.
The newly built road more a lane.
That little "lane" next to the pool from CTN.
Was added by neighboring property as I said.
Note how narror the land is there.
An inlet from the Bay is in there.
There's a link to the article shown above, the professor complained after doing a study years back that several areas on Miami Beach that he studied showed some problems ecologically due to sea level rise and the actual make up of the land they were built on. Again it began as a sand bar remember that, with mangroes growing up in it at it's lower part and a bit of a higher sandy ridge along the Atlantic Ocean narrow in some parts as seen above and wide at other parts. The Professor claimed the moment that he heard a building collapsed on Miami Beach he knew it was Champlain Towers North. The link to the article is below.
Why am I talking on this? Lots of reasons. The building was built to withstand a Category 5 Hurricane on a barrier island yet collapsed with no hurricane nearby. Just BOOM! Gone! And, yes I am still upset and dealing with the horror of Itty dying that way either asleep with her husband or awake from noises before the building collapse. Do we know? Will we ever know? No. Phil Ferro, a meteorologist with WSVN in Miami, lost two of his relatives who lived happy lives in that building for way more than 20 years and he said he "chooses to believe they died together without any pain" and it was instantaneous and so could be true. But at times for months after the collapse when I couldn't sleep, lying in bed at night next to my husband instead of feeling calm I'd relive in my mind various scenarios and then tell my mind to stop thinking and then I'd take something to sleep.
We just never will know if they were awake or asleep and died instantly.
Will we ever know if the man who drove into the swamp at night during Hurricane Ian in North Carolina was begged by a wife or child or friend not to go out into the storm? Did the couple that died during a previous hurricane when the husband insisted on getting off of I95 that was slow due to traffic and took a detour and he drove into a flooded area that didn't look that deep but he and his wife drowned. Did the wife tell him to get off the highway or did she think it was a great idea? They were old, elderly and probably impatient but who knows what led to that disasterous decision. Accidents happen...
How may people died because they lived with someone who refused to leave their trailer that sat on a barrier island or near the bay and well....the bay and the Hurricane Winds tore their homes apart or in some cases simply floated out to sea the way the Pawley's Island Pier broke and was last seen floating South.
I don't know.
I don't know why a lot happens.
I do think the media is often part of the problem as everyone covering a news story looks for a good story and they all scream TAMPA TAMPA TAMPA and then Port Charlotte gets the eye in Charley and then Ian does it again. The NHC puts up warnings and watches and the local weather people and authorities tell people to know the zone they are in for flooding and yet... Naples Fire Department left their brand new truck on low land and it was obvious to me that as Ian moved up along the coast anything in it's way on the West coast that was low lying could have flooding near the water even if they were not in the Cone. I get it that area rarely has flooded or well I just don't know why... And it flooded and it made for great watching during the hurricane as almost every friend I know sent me some video of the fireman trying to salavage equitment from their brand new truck.
We all talk about this. Mike on Mike's Facebook Page talked a blue streak about evacuation zones in real time live. He showed people where to go and how to find out if you live in an evacuation zone. Do people not understand or do they not care and live in denial? I don't know.
The article below shows the bay just a block or so away from the homes/buildings devastated by storm surge on Fort Myers Beach. I've been to Sanibel Island and Naples often it's not a place to stay in a hurricane but on any other day in the year it's awesome. It's due North of Key West (more or less) that had the third largest storm surge recorded why would Emergency Management who gets heads up before the average Joe not know that they should move the brand new firetruck to higher ground? Again our car is at a property where they moved it to in Raleigh as the dealership was concerned the creek nearby would flood the area again. It just seems so odd that the Fire Department was taken by surprise. And maybe we will never know why that poor decision by the Naples Fire Department that led to their brand new truck being stuck in a flood along with a few older fire trucks.
Naples to the North.
and KW to the South.
Sanibel Island above.
Why people stayed on Sanibel Island, not so much a barrier island but a sliver of land that juts out into the Gulf of Mexico from West to East catching beautiful shells and storm surge from a Northbound Category 4 Hurricane almost a Category 5!
Don't know why people decided to stay
It would be conjecture on my part.
It's sad.
Frustrating - we try hard to get the message out.
We try so hard.
We need to try harder.
We should get it right.
2004 Florida Hurricanes.
Charley in Green much like Ian.
Hurricanes come in cycles often. Miami was hit hard in the 1940s and the 1960s. Then nothing huge happened for years, Hurricane David turned away and Hugo went to Charleston, not Miami. 2004 and 2005 every hurricane made a bee line for Florida. Jamaica was hit often in the early 1800s, pounded by hurricanes. Article from Wikipedia,
October 12–14, 1812 – A large cyclone affected much of the island. Houses were destroyed in Kingston and Savanna-la-Mar.[21]
August 1, 1813 – A storm disrupted shipping and damaged buildings in Kingston.[21]
August 28, 1813 – Vessels were wrecked by a storm in Savanna-la-Mar.[21]
October 18–19, 1815 – Heavy rains attending a storm caused flooding in eastern Jamaica. Homes were destroyed in St. George and St. James.[21]
The 1700s had a few decades that were bad as well. Many blamed the Savanna-la-Mar hurricane on wicked people ... pirates, bars the same way they did in a previous hurricane there. They get earthquakes too!
So thanks for reading if you are still reading as I obviously needed to write and get this out of my brain and breathe a bit after a crazy week of trying to warn people of the dangers of that part of the Florida coast that is so prone to flooding, storm surge filled with beautiful little communities, often retirement communities made of trailer parks, small homes and all with a view of the water or close enough to walk over to while watching the sunset in the Gulf of Mexico.
Stay safe.
Give charity to those in need either to www.redcross.org or a charity you know well that is reliable.
I know this organization personally so know they are safe to donate to:
Learn your evacuation zone, learn your dangers from flooding and flash flooding in a hurricane.
Find your local shelters if money is an issue and you cannot easily fly out or you waited too long and trust that the authorities who work to put up shelters for you to safely ride out a hurricane will keep you safe.
Many did go to shelters, many are still in shelters tonight. They are alive because they went to the shelter. Those who did not risked their lives and lost more than their home and all the trinkets in it that they love. We do so love our trinkets trust me I know that well.
"Roughly 10,000 people throughout Florida remain housed in shelters after evacuating their homes, officials said Saturday, as Hurricane Ian response efforts continued three days after the disaster. The number of people displaced was yet another sign of the level of destruction left behind by Ian, as state and federal agencies continued to recover bodies and transport stranded residents. The initial phase of rescuing hurricane victims with medical emergencies has largely passed, officials said. The vast majority of rescues at this point are from people who are left stranded in the barrier islands." Read the article linked below.
Sometimes a city to the South of Tampa gets hit, Miami gets spared and Homestead is destroyed and Charleston took a hard hit but Pawley's Island and Georgetown got the eye from Ian. And Myrtle Beach to the North had flooding and damage. Death and damage occur far outside of the Cone from the NHC. And, the NHC puts all that info up on their page and yet few media outlets get that message across and everyone just looks at the Cone. I wish the media gave more attention to the local NWS than just make headlines with some sexy city possibly being the landfall and in North Carolina the flooding goes far beyond Wilmington every single time a hurricane like Fran or Florence or Floyd or Matthew make landfall!
First, I want to thank you for interacting with me on Twitter. If you had not, I would have never known about your blog. Wow I absolutely love the style of your writing. Not often am I able to read this much in one sitting. A lifelong battle with ADD they say. This time I was glued to the screen. Now I have so many more to read. The way you tied in CT was genius in my opinion. CT was horribly traumatic for me. I did not know anyone there. Yet watching the videos over and over and knowing some people suffered so. Others never knew what hit them. It was one of those things that life puts forth. I will never understand why. My heart was broken. What I am getting at here is you are able to write and bring out emotion, deep thought and contemplation. You have a gift. I can assure you I only reserve that complement to a rare few.
Always a great read Bobbi. You are indeed a writer's writer, if that makes sense. I can certainly see why your blogs were popular before Twitter even existed. However, this one resonated with me and though long, I actually read all the way till the end. Your point of view is unique and appreciated.
Location: Miami, Raleigh, Crown Heights, Florida, United States
Weather Historian. Studied meteorology and geography at FIU. Been quoted in Wall Street Journal, Washington Post & everywhere else... Lecturer, stormchaser, writer, dancer. If it's tropical it's topical ... covering the weather & musing on life. Follow me on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/#!/BobbiStorm
2 Comments:
First, I want to thank you for interacting with me on Twitter. If you had not, I would have never known about your blog. Wow I absolutely love the style of your writing. Not often am I able to read this much in one sitting. A lifelong battle with ADD they say. This time I was glued to the screen. Now I have so many more to read. The way you tied in CT was genius in my opinion. CT was horribly traumatic for me. I did not know anyone there. Yet watching the videos over and over and knowing some people suffered so. Others never knew what hit them. It was one of those things that life puts forth. I will never understand why. My heart was broken. What I am getting at here is you are able to write and bring out emotion, deep thought and contemplation. You have a gift. I can assure you I only reserve that complement to a rare few.
Always a great read Bobbi. You are indeed a writer's writer, if that makes sense. I can certainly see why your blogs were popular before Twitter even existed. However, this one resonated with me and though long, I actually read all the way till the end. Your point of view is unique and appreciated.
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