Updated 5 PM. TD 12 Forms in E ATLANTIC - Carib System Now 70% RED! Into Caribbean SMALL Systems Ramp Up Fast.. Short Read at Top on Tropics, Longread at Bottom on Hurricane History ..
Tropical Depression 12 formed in the East Atlantic.
Keep watching.
I'll be back Wedneday Night late.
Keep reading this was just an update...
As I said nothing is carved in stone.
Small waves can spin up fast.
91L now at 70% chances of forming!
Recon headed into 91L
At 11:30 they moved it up to 60%
At 5 PM who knows.
Note its close to the outer most islands
They may need to put up watches or warnings for them.
I'm not going to start showing models and discussing what if. For now the concern is the Islands out ahead of what seems to be a rapidly developing storm that would be either Julia or Karl or a TD depending on what the NHC does regarding the system near Africa. Pay attention for updates in real time and be aware as always the Hurricane Season isn't over just because many would like it to be and learn from Ian and Fiona that things change change in real time.
Global models slower to recognize small systems.
Just be aware it's there and so is recon.
I'll update at 5 PM.
* * *
Tuesday, October 4th, 2022
Tropics Today
Small Invest 91L closer in...
....large Invest 92L further away.
92L is most likely Julia, next named storm.
But 2022 taught us never to name our Invests...
Red Area at 80%
Should... be Julia.
Ocean cruiser out at sea.
Low rider goes West into Carib.
Most models keep it very low West.
As always-nothing is set in stone.
It's early.
Changes always possible.
40% in the 5 Day.
Totally different systems.
Both Invests have an ULL of their own.
North of them as seen in image above.
ULL swirly shadow upper level lows.
Due North of the X marks the spot Invests.
First far away Invest 92L
Track Map up at NRL
Generally that means it's about to get a name!
Models keep it out to sea.
But they do lean West for a while.
Possibly looping away out in the Atlantic.
Florence survivors forever worry on these.
Ppl never forget Florence in the Carolinas.
But this should stay out at sea.
As always monitor in real time.
91L below
But as it moves West to friendlier waters...
....it could develop and strut it's stuff.
Visible imagery shows a small, tight ball of convection.
Center is not very visible anywhere.
Small waves can spin up fast.
Intensify fast. Fall apart fast.
Always watch small tight systems.
Larger waves take long to pull together.
In the Mimic image below that basically tracks moisture, you can see how dry it is in the Far North Atlantic and over the East coast all the way down towards North Florida that has blue skies in the Panhandle. Winter Temperatures reigning cool breezes and uplifting Carolinians moods as we begin to think on fire pits, pumpkin fields and trips to the Farmer's Market to find Fall vegetables. High School Football and opening the windows and turning off the AC for a bit. A far cry from what people in SW Florida are going through and yet I know people locally who are totally involved all day in trying to send relief to those in need. One beautiful thing about the Carolinas is how people are given over to chartity on all levels. I noticed that first year here when I walked into the grocery story and local bank and there were donation boxes filled with coats and sweaters being collected for those in need as winter approaches. And, people know that Hurricane Season is not over, and though it's rare to think on Hurricanes in October many remember that Hurricane Hazel, Matthew and Sandy and numerous others found their way to the Carolinas or the Mid Atlantic by way of a beautiful strong cold front. So for now the high pressure is keeping this Invest South, as we see things can change and we watch in case things change. SW Caribbean is an area where nasty storms form in October so while we should not obsess on it, just keep watching to make sure it cruises West or doesn't form into a hurricane. As the long read part of this blog today on Hurricane History way below shows we are blessed today to be able to watch a cluster of clouds in the Caribbean and get updates in real time and have models that keep running finding solutions that tell us either it's not a problem or a problem could be evolving. Weather evolves, it's not stagnant and it's always changing, rearranging and flowing.
You can see that Invest 92L is more tightly wound than Invest 91L, yet all eyes are on 91L as it seems way too similar to Fiona and Ian that tracked low and became storms both in the Caribbean and people had to deal with it further to the North as Fiona developed and made landfall. Anything that gets into the Caribbean near the large gyre down there that usually enhances development this time of year has a chance of being pulled North by a diving cold front, and as cold fronts have been the signature this year and stronger now than when Fiona was there it's important to remember hurricane season is not over yet. The loop below shows you the story in motion. Again cold fronts deflect hurricanes but they can also grab the hurricane and bring it straight to you. It's way too soon to tell so all I'm saying is watch it as this is prime development area for October. Often October delivers hurricanes to Central America that we never hear from again, other times they find a way out of the Caribbean.
So this is the short read part of the blog today based on the current state of the tropics, while people in SW Florida take boat rides out to their homes or what is left of them to see for themselves what they can retrieve or see. The ones that stayed and survived will most likely never stay for a hurricane again whether they are in the Cone two days out or on the edge of the cone. The death toll is still climbing, way over a 100 in 2022 from a landfalling hurricane that the media spoke of and warned on before it even formed for a week before it made landfall.
Only way to get in and out is by boat.
But there's lots of boats .... and airboats....
....no shortage of boats!
SW Florida is filled with boats of all size, people live near the water so they can be on the water and air boats that cruise the marshy area are being used in mutliple ways for people to get back and forth to islands now cut off from the mainland. Boats are the only way in and out and there is no lack of boats in that region.
Give charity to those that need whatever you can. www.redcross.org
Personally I'm close friends with people at Chabad of Estero, one of my closest friends lives there and has been helping nonstop in every way they can. Yesterday a Food Truck, a kosher food truck, drove over from Miami and set up by the Chabad House giving out free food, drink and help to anyone who came by. Bonita Springs and the village of Estero are beautiful communities most days of the year, but on that one day in 100 years that a Major Hurricane makes landfall nearby it's needy, people don't have power and they need to charge their cell phones to let people know they are okay and alive. They need food, they need the most basic supplies and I have friends personally who are working their doing what they can every minute of the day. It's heartwarming the many ways people find to do good in the middle of such devastation and loss. Everyone in the entire area destroyed or impacted by Ian needs help of some kind.
I gave here and I'll continue to give what I can, I ask you give what you can but make sure the donation is going directly to the people who need it. That's why I always link to the www.redcross.org as I know it's legit and I know the work they are doing at Chabad of Estero/Bonita Springs is legit, so find a charity and give give what you can.
My daughter works with United Hatzalah of Israel in the Miami office coordinating many projects, she sent me images last night of people on the ground at shelters comforting and providing help of many kids especially psychologically as they have special trauma units that work in Israel and have been working in Europe with refugees from Ukraine, now in Florida. Heartwarming to see how people jump on a plane and go into action to help others in need. Link below the to the blog with more information.
The rest of this blog is a longread on Hurricane History and what is more historic than a hurricane that is literally a 100 Year Storm so let's learn from history, compare and contrast this with the 1921 Hurricane and also compare and contrast with Hurricane Bret that made landfall in a natural area as opposed to the two major cities in Texas that were warned of it's approach, and people complained about being told to evacuate and nothing happened. And that happens every time someone in Florida from the Florida Keys to the Panhandle evacuates and then complains they didn't have to as the storm was weaker than expected the day before or wobbled to the left or the right and someone else got the eye and they could have stayed home. This happens literally every single time.
Be a part of the solution not the problem. There's room for improvement in how we warn people and we need to find a way to get people living on a low lying strip of land to take the warnings seriously. Maybe we need to find a way that they trust us more and understand better how unpredictable hurricanes can be as they approach landfall.
I'll be offline tomorrow for Yom Kippur so follow the NHC and Spaghetti Models or whatever site or App you use to track the tropics and hopefully the Caribbean cruiser will cruise West doing little damage and not be some remake of other infamous hurricanes that found somehow a way out of the deep SW Caribbean. So today's blog is a Longread if you keep reading, and I hope you do, and again I'll be off til late Wednesday evening for Yom Kippur.
* * *
What mistakes were made forecasting Ian?
What mistakes were made by late evacuation orders?
Why did people stay?
Why didn't they leave?
History is filled with Hurricane like Ian.
1900 Galveston Hurricane
1935 Labor Day Hurricane.
1921 Tampa Bay Hurricane
Difference is now we have a Cone.
We have satellite imagery.
We KNOW it's there....
...yet still people gamble with their lives.
Don't gamble with your life!
Err on the side of safely.
Leave, pray u have something to go back to.
The above is a screenshot of my blog when Ian was first pulling it together in the Caribbean as the NHC predicted it would form and become a strong hurricane that moves up towards the Eastern Gulf of Mexico threatening a devastating landfall. They were on this before it even had a closed center and they talked incessantly on the threat it carried up the road near Florida as a Major Hurricane. I'd even say they went out on a limb for them to predict it to be a Major Hurricane, before it even had a closed center.
September 25th.
Yes center of cone ended further North.
It was just a TS barely formed.
Not bad for "while it was forming"
Storm surge moves North WITH the storm.
3 days before it made landfall....
I'm an old time Floridian, 4th generation whose family spent much time in the Tampa area as well as the Florida Keys. I would have viewed that graphic, if I still lived there, as "oh my gosh we have to get ready just in case" because when you live in an area where hurricanes make landfall you ALWAYS have to have in mind "just in case" and you always have to expect last minute changes will be made to even the best forecasts. Anyone who has been through Andrew or Florence looks at a Cone not at the line, unless the line is directly over them, but at the part of the cone closest to them and worries they will get that storm. Even if they are on the right edge or left edge of the cone or even a few counties over after being in a Major Hurricane you always think the hurricane has your name on it. Sadly, all those people who got lucky time and time again and never had a major hurricane assumed they would be "fine" it will go somewhere else and they didn't have energy for an evacuation.
Honestly, it all costs a fortune to prepare for a landfall, let alone an evacuation. But as a friend of mine back when said as Katrina was moving towards landfall near New Orleans "if he didn't have a dime to his name he'd take he'd begin walking North to higher ground" because he calculated that trip on foot and there was time to walk out of danger. I thought it was a bit dramatic when he said it, but I'm from Miami where "Park and Ride" buses used for Dolphin games take people who need rides off Miami Beach to shelters. He was right though as lives would had been saved had some people just grabbed a back pack and began walking past I-10 to higher ground whether alone or with family and friends. That walk is easier to do in areas near New Orleans than Fort Myers, but it was clear that Fort Myers Beach was in the path of storm surge or a landfall with any shift of the cone, and people need to stop looking at the cone as if it's set in stone but knowing it can move even on the 4th and 5th day closer to your town that looked as if it was on the edge of the cone only 3 days before landfall.
Hurricane forecasting is an imperfect scientific and mathematical job and if you studied science in school you know when doing an experiment if you change any element or it's not done properly the results vary.
That is what happens when Andrew wobbles suddenly to the South or Ian leans to the right and the cone is moved a bit more to the right before landfall as seen above.
My family had a photo taken of their home in Tampa and next to it was another home they also owned but rented out. A friendly photographer lived on that block and the image is recorded in history. It looks kind of ragged and not like the home they described that was painted white with gardens and roses and greenery all around the porch that had comfortable furniture on it. You know why it looks like some house out on the prairie during the dust bowl? Beause the picture was taken just after the Tampa Bay 1921 Hurricane hit Tampa. You can see the tree in the upper left corner is stripped of leaves making it look like a "winter" picture but this is Tampa and those trees that were once beautiful, huge green trees with hanging moss. Ain't no hanging moss in this picture below.
To the far right you see a barren tree too.
But in it's day it was a cute, upscale little home in Tampa.
Just West of Ybor City where they had offices.
Cigar Business and other businesses.
Inland so to speak just North of Tampa Bay.
Far enough North of the bay to survive...
...but close enough to never forget a hurricane's fury.
Didn't get storm surge but it got wind.
Nebraska Avenue running N and S just E of the highway.
Just West of Ybor City is where that house was in 1921.
An incredible article written last year...
...100 year annivesary of the 1921 Cane.
Maybe one person read it and evacuated FMB.
History empowers us with knowledge.
The link is below to this article, great read.
Lots of pictures.
The 1 building left standing above was near the red dot.
On a barrier island.... a beautiful barrier island.
No bridge yet in 1921, just a ferry to get to safety.
Honestly if you have "problems" with the way the NHC forecast a Major Hurricane before it even formed and 3 days before Ian made landfall, from a clump of mishaped clouds in the Caribbean and the public was warned online, on social media and The Weather Channel warned people in it's path nonstop around the clock then you need to rethink how fickle hurricanes can be and how hard they are to forecast when you have a closed center, let alone before you have a closed center in a clump of clouds in the Caribbean. I'm amazed Mike has a voice left after talking nonstop on Facebook Live and YouTube trying to help people find their evacuation zones and to take Ian seriously on Mike's Weather Page with thousands of people listening live I am sure he saved someone's life, being as old Florida as it gets and living in the Tampa area he took this storm very personally as I did and yet sadly many do not trust the people trying to save their lives.
The image above is from a larger article that is linked below about the 100 Year Hurricane written last year at the 100 year anniversary of the 1921 Tampa Hurricane, 101 years later Fort Myers to the South a sister like city to Tampa Bay was slammed by the same type of dangerous Category 4 Hurricane.
"CORTEZ – It was 100 years ago this month when a handful of people at the Albion Inn heard an announcement on the only radio in the fishing village about a big blow coming"
"Across the bay to the west, the few residents on Anna Maria Island – which had been settled only 28 years earlier – had to rely on ferry service to get to safety on the mainland, as the first bridge from Cortez to the Island was still under construction"
This was the only building left standing!
Kind of leaning standing but there....
link at bottom to this incredible article.
"On Oct. 24, the news got worse. “Key West to Apalachicola. Increasing winds and gales and hurricane velocities along the coast. Emergency: warn all interests,” the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration alert said
By the morning of Oct. 25, Cortez was underwater, five feet deep at the docks"
First few lines say it all, in the old days after radio became a thing in Florida and the population was far fewer than it is now, a radio announcement warned a "big blow" was coming as in those days hurricanes had no names, yet people took them seriously. The next few lines tell the tale, without the bridge being finished people ran for the ferry when a warning was put up probably a day before landfall or after it passed Key West that gave a hearty heads up to the Tampa area. These were barrier islands South of Tampa out in the Gulf that took the first brunt of deadlynstorm surge and violent winds.
Below is NHC Cone for Ian.
5 days before it made landfall.
Today in 2022 a mere 101 years later, which is nothing in the span of time, while Ian was a 45 MPH tropical storm that finally got it's act together but still looked fairly crappy the NHC Cone had the area that later was demolished in their cone. Yes the cone got narrorer, but off and on it was in the cone and a day before the cone edged closer and closer to Fort Myers Beach and yet people didn't trust that it could really be as bad as the media warned. People didn't trust, people didn't believe. It's something we need to fix.
There is just too much mistrust of the media, and yes the media does hype news as it's the nature of the beast we call Journalism, but if you live on a barrier island or in the path of a hurricane be you in the cone or on the edge of the cone you have to know your lifestyle can be destroyed and along with your home, your life could end. Journalists also write stories nonstop trying to warn people of the dangers and yet their concerns are often ignored. We are not perfect yet in 2022 but we are getting better every day, every year and we learn from everything. National Hurricane Center is a government agency, many don't trust the government I know, but they work literally around the clock to try and provide the best information they can and yet people who play video games, use dating apps and work by Zoom can't seem to go to their site and gain every piece of informaiton carefully arranged to be made as easy as possible to provide the general public with the most information. It's frustrating, very frustrating. It's something we need to fix.
After Major Hurricane Brett made landfall in what was basically a natural, unpopulated area along the low lying Texas coast many complained that they had evacuated and nothing happened. This is a constant complaint from the low lying Texas coast to people who refuse to leave Key West for an evacuation as they did it too many times and then the hurricane went somewhere else. It's something we need to fix.
https://www.weather.gov/crp/Hurricane_Breta Major Hurricane with a small deadly core of destructive winds missed the populated areas where some evacuated and people complained they were in the Cone and told to evacuate. Pretty formidable looking storm, Brownsville and Corpus Christi got lucky beyong measure and anyone who is still annoyed and complained on hype should look at those pictures from Ian and be grateful, give thanks and give some charity (whatever they can) to people whose lives were destroyed by Ian. People complained back in the late 1990s that the Cone was too wide and too many people were inconvienced by evacuating when Bret missed them.
So what would you do next time? Will you err on the side of caution? Will you think to yourself "if that cone just edges up a bit to the North I'm in it" and prepare as if you are in it? Do you want the NHC to go wider in their Cone on the 5 day and then are you going to complain you evacuated from Miami and drove to Atlanta and the next I Hurricane made landfall on Marco Island? Irma did that just recently did people in Marco Island take it seriously or those who took it seriously and had damage moved up to Raleigh that rarely gets real hurricanes except for Fran and Hazel but you know what I mean.
This country is so divided for a mutltitude of reasons and people have become divided as well as to what they believe and who they believe and often there are people who just don't trust the government no matter who is in power that particular year. They don't trust the NHC, they don't trust the governor nor the town mayor nor their cousin Joe who got out fast because his best friend's home was destroyed at Big Pine Key near Cudjoe Key where Irma made it's first landfall in the Florida Keys cousin Joe wasn't taking any chances.
The reason many read my blog and other blogs and listen to Mike and others doing online videos is they got burned before and don't trust any once source and those people, probably someone reading this, has learned from being too up close and personal to a Major Hurricane to never gamble with their lives and likes to jump into action fast as soon as they see one to moving in their general direction.
How do we fix the problem of those who don't trust or choose to believe they will be fine when a mutlitude of authorites warn them of impending danger? I get it we live in a dangerous world, I ignored Ukaine stories while covering Ian. Not much I can do personally about Ukraine but it is possible I can save one person's life here by writing about the dangers of a hurricane headed towards their general area. Maybe I can help someone prepare and having been there can remind parents to get crayons and coloring books that don't need power to keep their children busy and occupied when a hurricane happens to them. If one person who read this blog refilled their medication before Ian while it was down trying to form and they are in a hurricane shelter today with their medication than it was worth the time I took to write this blog and tweet on Twitter.
How do we fix the problem so this problem doesn't happen again.
There is NO reason in 2022 for over 100 people to die in a hurricane that was forecast to be a major hurricane getting into the Gulf of Mexico making landfall somewhere five days to a week before it happened.
8 people died.
Yes, Tampa had a smaller population and it also was understood that low lying barrier islands were not a place you can ride out a hurricane and survive. I don't know, we need to fix the problem and do better next time. Back then our barrier islands were not as populated with year round residents who live with the illusion of being on solid ground and not really in danger as they have impact windows and their building was built to withstand a Category 5 Hurricane. I'd say see previous long read on Champlain Towers, but you've read enough today.
Thank you for reading.
The article below is awesome, well done and it may have saved many lives as last year when the 100 year anniversary of the Cat 4 that actually did hit the Tampa area was "celebrated" with videos and articles shown nonstop to remind people it could happen again today.
https://www.amisun.com/2021/10/11/the-100-year-storm/
Anna Maria Island Sun... a local paper with good writing. An island my family owned land on until the late 1990s. Had I not been looking for info on Anna Maria Island, I'd probably not have found it so happy to share it here. The Southwest coast of Florida is filled with beautiful beach towns on barrier islands or the coast such as this beautiful place. But hurricanes happen it's a reality of life there and we need to find a way to fix the problem that led to over 100 deaths in Florida from Ian.
I'll be offline Wednesday due to Yom Kippur. Thanks for reading, for your patience and reading long reads and what you all add to the discussion on Twitter always.
https://www.chabad.org/library/article_cdo/aid/4687/jewish/Yom-Kippur.htm
Besos BobbiStorm @bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram
Hopefully whatever forms.... if it forms, probably Karl but who knows this year, it will not make a Jamiaca Mistaica and stay south of Jamaica but never count your hurricanes names before they are named by the NHC in 2022 and never count on a hurricane cone not being moved in real time if changes warrant, hurricanes are unpredicatble by nature but the NHC does a great job and it's way better than hearing on the radio that a "blg blow" is coming.....
posted by BobbiStorm @ 8:52 AM
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