Invests 91L & 92L. Lead Wave in Caribbean Has Currently Low Chances of Developing, If Global Models Come On Board That Might Change. Invests VS Named Storms. Why Wasn't an Evacuation Order By Local County Issued Earlier? Hindsight is Always 20/20. Lots of Questions.

 

Here we have Invest 91L and 92L 

91L is the closer tropical wave.

Most models take it South, keeping it low.

A few do pull it further North similar to Fiona.

I want to be very clear here, this is a Tropical Wave that some models show has potential to develop into a tropical system. This is not a named storm or an immediate threat and we are not even sure if this will actually develop. The large global models (like the EURO) ignore this system while other models do develop as seen above. There is no reason for panic or assuming this is the next Major Hurricane, but simply a tropical wave being monitored, investigated by the powers that be. And, that is good but do not confuse this with a real Tropical Storm.

Years ago before "Invests" were shown publically, we would monitor tropical waves a bit more that were elevated to Invest status. All waves are routinely monitored and tagged, yet once an INVEST is elevated to a status that gets play on social media, on local weather updates and by The Weather Channel. In theory there is nothing wrong with that, it's good to know what might be a problem so you don't  let your guard down. In the old says these were tropical waves mentioned in the tropical outlook on the old Weather Radio. It was a "heads up" that a "vigorous" wave was there and ships at sea sent in reports so we could track them before they were important enough to send Recon in once they were closer within range of hurricane hunters aircraft.

Fast foward to 2022 when they have their own MEMES and are as well known as the more popular contenstants on The Bachelorette! And early discussion and thoughts on where it will end up suddenly are put out online and shared as if there was a Cone and it was 4 days away from a possible landfall. It's good we monitor them, it's perhaps confusing to some that they are not yet a named stystem and therefore have no real center and the models are not as accurate as they are once you have a well defined center and data from recon is added to the models. Even then........the first few 5 Day Cones are in the same general area of landfall but they are not meant to be taken as set in stone. Remember when an Invest was supposed to be Hermine but then ended up Ian? We should have known then we were set for some surprises down the road.

I say this as I have heard many people online say they didn't pay attention to IAN as it wasn't supposed to hit Southwest Florida. That's not logical. Early models shown as Invests or the first few Cones from the NHC were further to the North. The NHC saw it wasn't slamming into Central America nor getting up into the Gulf of Mexico about to hit Texas nor that it was going to swere NE out to sea before hitting South Florida. The NHC did such a good job with Ian it actually showed it as a possible Major Hurricane before it had even formed a center, let alone an eye. People need to always know things can change and suddenly IAN is headed to Fort Myers Beach vs Sarasota (near by and near enough for anyone on the SW coast of Florida to personally be concerned and adjust their plans in real time) and that's important to remember. 

Yes mistakes are always made, steering currents aren't set in stone they flow, they move about they dance and there are lots of moving parts and the NHC monitors how the named storm reacts in kind to changes in the environment. Often the strength of the hurricane itself can be a factor as a Major Hurricane reacts to upper level winds sometimes differently than a weak storm.

I don't want anyone to confuse an Invest with a Major Hurricane and early models with a Cone a day or two before landfall. 

Next I'm putting the information out there that we have but everything changes in real time.

The other Invest is out at sea...

...near Africa.

Moving up into the East Atlantic.

Other areas I find curious.

This area has no circle from NHC.

This map from the TCFP has a small purple splotch.

This is the state of the tropics at 3 PM.

Late seasaon storms can often pull NE in the Carib...

...out to sea. This is October not November.

But Ian behaved like an October Cane not a September one!

Just something to think on...

My bottom like is to remember Hurricane Season is not over. There's a huge wave out there not organized in any way though that could change; has a bit of a spin and possible mid level center. Don't confuse attention directed towards it as a sign of it developing vs it warranting attention in case it develops.  There's a HUGE LONG FRONT that runs from Central America up into the North Atlantic, sometimes something forms at the base of it. Sometimes the lowered pressures as convection is lingering there draws another wave towards it and that might be what the models show that track that tropical wave into Central America vs the ones that see it lifting more towards Hispaniola.

Way too many words written for something that is not a real entity but does have designation. But I am more concerned today that people properly understand what Invests are and the differences between models for Invests and early cones for Tropical Depressions vs the final Cone and the final end result from the Hurricane.

Regarding Ian, I'll admit I thought it would make it further North up into the Gulf of Mexico as hurricanes usually do in late September but the models sniffed out the strength of that front and it's so cool it's 63 degrees in Raleigh as I sit here typing this in lounging pajamas I usually wear later in November.  The models did a good job, all in all, but no model is perfect and no forecast is perfect as hurricanes can be tricky in their sudden ability to change direction close in to land. As I said often, "I"m open to be proven wrong" and that should be the message here, be open to the possibility that the hurricane track that is expected changes in real time and the Cone is moved a bit closer in real time. Nothing is set in stone.

Any time you see a Hurricane to your South (Hurricane not an Invest) you take it seriously and until it has passed you by in it's wake, never let your guard down. Irma on it's approach to South Florida suddenly shifted track and took a Cuban vacation, Charley veered towards landfall as did Ian that didn't veer quickly but consitently pulled right of track bringing Ian in not far from where Charley did before and this argument about what was or wasn't in the NHC Cone is raised again. 

As for the county that should have declared an emergency evacuation according to everyone online  but they waited and the question is why did they wait? It was obvious this was not just any hurricane, but a large borderline Category 5 hurricane that moved past  Key West directly to the South with a stronger than expected storm surge. Common Sense should dictate that between the impacts in Key West and with the size and strength of Ian that strong, people who lived on barrier islands or very low lying areas in evacuation zones should have moved to higher ground and left the barrier islands whether their local government told them to or not. 

Captiva has over history had it's boundaries changed and rearranged by strong hurricanes such as Ian, as well as Sanibel Island a spit of land sticking out into the Gulf of Mexico with one bridge that links it with the mainland. 

And I will admit after living on Miami Beach for decades, the main industry there is TOURISM and once a popular tourist location is put under an evacuation order there is a perception that it probably suffered damage. And some family in Arkansas debating whether to go to Sanibel Island for their Christmas vacation will discuss it and Aunt Martha will mention how she thinks they probably had lots of damage from that hurricane Ian" and suggest going to Destin Beach instead as it wasn't damaged by Ian.  Honestly this is how things work and never, ever does a place "like Miami Beach" want to be in the news for having an evacuation order or have the message it's about to be destroyed by a hurricane. Often in Miami Beach we had a "small craft warning" and the High Wind Warning began at Hallandale Beach Boulevard just to the North of Miami Dade County, and we got sandblasted on Miami Beach but it wasn't a large hurricane and the center did move further up the coast. Fort Myers Beach has gotten "lucky" so often when despite being in the Cone the hurricane cruised past them to North Florida somewhere and whether by design or just in denial fatal mistakes were made. That also includes Naples for now moving their brand new firetruck to higher ground and not preparing for the worst and hoping for the best. In my opinion.

Hindsight is always 20/20 yet making these decisions in real time is never 20/20 but colored by our own needs, perceptions and often desires and hopes that it'll move away and everything will be okay. Often that works, once in a while it does not. This was that "once in a while" it did not.

Sanibel and Captiva are currently destroyed much like the island Hurricane Maria hit, but not quite as bad but it will take a long time before they can put Sanibel and Captival Islands back together again and as for Fort Myers much of it will be rebuilt and much of what looks like it survived will probably be condemned as sometimes old buildings are still standing but once examined carefully by inspectors it will be found they were not as okay as they looked and will be razed to the ground.

I'll update on these tropical waves as any thing changes from the NHC. Karl and Julia next two names up.

Again please donate to charities as the people of SW Florida where Ian decided to make landfall will need unimagined amounts of money and hard work to come back. Carolinas had damage, but nothing like Florida though we did lose some of our most cherished piers and many are hurting and trying hard to salvage what Ian's storm surge carried away.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram

Life was just slammed, blown apart and blown away. The Pawley's Island Pier was last seen floating South... and belongings of people who lived on barrier islands were washed away and their lives were blown apart by the raging hurricane that killed many in the Caribbean before it took it's show on the road to SW Florida