Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Sunday, July 21, 2019

Updated 11 PM Sunday Night Invest 94L Just Suddenly POPS UP Just West of Miami... Will it Form Into a TD or Become Chantal? Time Will Tell ... Keep Watching. This Is Why I Said Watch Close In Home Grown in July

Chances with Invest 94L are down to 10%
Currently drifting West with the flow.
See tomorrow what it does........
........and what the models show.

Sunday Night's models to compare and contrast below.

2 PM Update.
Second verse same as the first... 
20% in 5 Days.

If it gets more model support expect odds to go up.
Either way we know in SFL we are in the flow.
The flow around the huge high pressure.

This grid available on

Note what Levi Cowan is saying above. 
It isn't closed.
It could gain a small circulation.

My thought to remember is...
.... models are bad at picking up on very small systems.
So just keep watching.
The locals for now aren't expecting more than...
...the crazy thunderstorms they've been getting in Miami.

Or from my perspective...

NHC has introduced Invest 94L
20% chances cruising into Florida waters.
Well Bahamas then Florida.
Then maybe up the coast to the Carolinas?
Let's take another look at our surprise friend.

Note heavy convection in the Gulf of Mexico.
Rain has been the name of the game in South Florida.
Models running doing their thing shown below.

My gosh how far does this little system go?
And where does it go?

Or from my Miami perspective and go to channel

And does it really form into a designated system?
I'm skeptical for now on a front grabbing it...
..sooner rather than later. 
Plus all that low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico
The next name up is Chantal.
Close up on the morning visible.

A slight sense of circulation is visible....
Moisture evident.

So here are my thoughts.
This has potential.
A slight reflection on earthnull of desires...
...trying to but can it?

This is why we watch for close in development in July.
It's where development often pops up.
When the sun comes up.... 
...and the NHC puts up 94L with 20% chances.
You cannot rule it out in July.

My thoughts below:

I woke up at 4 AM Saturday morning to the crescendo of an all night thunderstorm that seemed parked over my son's house and it was especially loud. My first thought was "oh yeah, something's gonna pop up soon close in" and then I tried to go back to bed again. The atmosphere is unstable, saturated with a nonstop rain train of moisture coming in from the Bahamas. Yes, a sea breeze front happens often this time of year but understand as well that Miami usually gets morning rain in late August and September so something seems very off and the environment seems pregnant with tropical possibilities. When you watch patterns you know that without staring all day at a water vapor loop, but it helps to stare at water vapor loops during the quiet times to get a feel for what could happen. Models are great but they miss formation sometimes and then jump onto the bandwagon once it pops up. Models seem to love long tracking waves or odd sets up vs latching on early to small waves or convection until they do something. Invest 94L has formed, models are being run and it's steadily progressing towards the West.

atl_ir4_sat_tropicalindex_anim.gif (640×480)

You can see the storms pop around Florida.
The moisture lingering in the Gulf of Mexico.
Our little Invest crawling along westward.
A huge high to the North.
Often when you have a huge high to the North for a long time.
Low pressure tries to form beneath that high pressure dome.

It's easy for newbies to make fun that I watch waves that do not have model support as they don't have the overall experience and understanding of Climo and Hurricane History. Yes, they know the July formation maps show things form close in but they weigh everything on "but the models don't show" and it's not about what the model shows it's about what the pattern shows as Dabuh knows also. Many of us know as we track the tropics vs the models. Anyone can watch the models. Sometimes things form from systems like this and sometimes they don't but when they are so close to land or headed towards land especially the NHC homebase they definitely get attention whether they have strong model support or not. Trust me it's tropical down here and I said I thought July would have another named storm or system whether models showed it five days ago or not.

I'm in Miami as most of you know. Here for a family event and catching up with friends and family.  I spent Shabbos (Saturday) at my older son's house in Walnut Creek where many of my best friend's kids are living. Nice place that's not NMB (local joke) and they mostly have water views where herons and ducks and geese play in the water, around the water and we spend the afternoon watching iguanas sunbathe on the patios. It's true. Miami is tropical. Miami is also more prone to tropical waves that do or don't develop and weak systems that pop up fast and don't seem much stronger than your typical afternoon thunderstorm. I prayed it would not thunderstorm in the morning as I walking over to my best friend Sharon's son's house  to sit and act like a teenager again with Sharon nibbling on cake, sipping coffee and talking life. My other best friend Malka's son is moving in down the street in a few weeks. Worked out well for us that the kids seem to stay close.

As the afternoon progressed the clouds got progressively darker, the wind began to blow and we sat on the sofa watching the scene unfold. My 7 year old grandson, a survivor of Hurricane Irma, smiles and says "the hurricane is about to begin" as if he's introducing an act on stage. The palm trees were waving wildly and the fake duck that sits in the lake on some irrigation thing was bobbing wildly as if he was about to take flight and it began to pour like a hurricane for a good 5 minutes and then as it does in Miami often it was as if someone turned the hose off and it suddenly stopped raining; we smiled knowing the temperature just dropped easily a good 7 degrees and in a few minutes we went out and watched the sun set and the stars come out from the patio on chairs after spraying ourselves with bug spray. Welcome to Miami ;)  Later after the Jewish Sabbath was over we said goodbye and my husband and I stopped in at a really, fantastic burger restaurant and got lamb burgers with onion friends and relaxed a bit more. A chain that opened in France and is now in Hollywood, Florida. Incredible food and nice artwork, wonderful server staff and owners who are sweet and friendly. They are a meat restaurant but they have great pareve dairy free desserts so if you are dairy intolerant it's a great place to go for a Key Lime Pie or "ice cream" with your Nespresso!

(get the lamb burger... oh my goodness)

Woke up this morning late to the new Invest.
Sat down to write and my youngest son came out of his room.
I smiled and said there's an Invest near Florida.
As he walked out to do an errand he said casually:
"yeah but it's only got 20% chances"

Everyone's a tropical meteorologist in Miami!

I'll update later today. 
Please read the previous blog post.
It's my poetic, prose like ode to Miami.
And the Marine Stadium where kids used to go... their boats and watch Jimmy Buffett perform.
Sometimes swimming/dancing in the bay during concerts.
On land people sat and watched the show.

Truly worth saving rather than putting up a fence around it..
...and telling people to stay out and maybe we will fix it up.
Best views of the bay.
Just down the road from the Hurricane Research Facility.

And if you are wondering how we go from nothing to something?
It's the same science how your laptop goes from 7% to 1%
Will update later today or tonight.

Besos BobbiStormn
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.
Follow me there for real time discussion and updates.

Check out the link...
...listen to the music.
While waiting to see if 94L will become Chantal anytime soon!


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