Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Thursday, September 13, 2018

UPDATED.......11 PM----Florence and the Carolinas. Virginia Coastal Area Getting Weather Now As Well. Updates, Information and Discussion From Raleigh

11 PM

First of all I want you to look at that track above.
She formed by the CV Islands off of Africa.
That is the track she took ....
Simply awesome. 
Long tracker. 

Discussion below.

Explanation of why they downgraded her to Cat 1.
Many have felt she was weaker for a while.
She's strong, huge and tough.
But a Category 1 hovering off the NC coast.

And her gusts are higher than her windspeed.
That's typical but important.
Normally gusts come and go.
But in her case they have come to stay awhile.
Long term gusts in that range ...
..will weaken structures and trees.
Hopefully people will take her seriously.
Not run out in bands thinking she's weaker.
Then get slammed by a band racing through fast.

Key Messages from the NHC below.

But before you look at the cone.
Remember that's the "CENTER" of the storm.

People don't always get that.
In the long term the cone is wide.
Short term small.
The cone gives the ILLUSION ...
..that NC and VA barely are getting weather.

See below the real story.

This is the area that can see high winds.
The wind guide is on the right.
Obviously purple is:
Oh my goodness!
Pink is "wow"
Red is strong winds.
You get the idea I know.

Above is the WIND.
Look how different that is from the cone.
But it's more important a graphic ...
...for everywhere but landfall.
And she is moving ....

I want to say something here.
Every time I look at this graphic.

My mind goes blank 
I swear I hear this music in my head.

TRS game from the 1980s.
That music... 

And then I stared tonight and realized.
Oh the MDR doesn't have anything.

Nothing formed in the MDR (except Beryl)
But storms formed everywhere else.
As I have said before...
... Mother Nature always finds a way.

If July and August are quiet...
September Remember.

So yeah.. not such a quiet season.
Never judge a season until it's over.
That's my motto.


Some thoughts around the web.

Great view from Tropical Tidbits.
He has a floater up on his site.
Discussion said strong winds in distant bands.
Intense center.
Almost touching the coast.

I took a break to clean up from dinner.
Oh my goodness... prime time for me here.

I'm not even cleaning out my Gmail... 
oh and AOL (yes still have one)
Tropical Met group is in the AOL..

Good observation from Rob.
Been following him for years.

That is very possible above.

Beautiful signature on radar.

And the show continues tomorrow.
And the beat goes on...

In truth when she gets cut off from her tropical moisture ...
...she always falls apart.
You can see on the Mimic image below.

Note the yellow behind the orange.
She lost that orange feed from the deep tropics.
She's got some.. enough.
Cat 1.

Below you see a water vapor image.
The dark air above her.
Stopping her movement NW
But it's not really that strong yet.
Strong enough to put the brakes on..

Stay tuned.
..never judge a season until it's over.
And it's not over until a big October Cane.
Yes I said that.
Very possible.
Time will tell.

Earlier tonight.
And still looks like this now.

Keep reading if you did not.
All the info is still viable.
Just from earlier tonight.

Just off the coast of North Carolina.
NHC now giving hourly position 

WNW at 5 MPH.
You can read the discussion below.
It explains how they arrived at 5 MPH WNW.
It's moving so slowly it's hard to tell.
Some people say it stalled.
Others are saying it's looping.
Go to the source it's official NHC.
WNW at 5 MPH
We will see at 11 PM what they say.

Showing this image below as it shows how close the storm is positioned now and where her hurricane force winds are (dark muddy red) just touching the coast and the wider mustard of Tropical Storm force winds. The Hurricane Warnings go SC to the border of NC/VA. In truth it's a map drawn to give you an idea and understand hurricane force winds do not stop at a border and often extend North into VA along the beaches in squalls. Florence has always been top heavy and her bottom Southern side has always had difficulties maintaining itself. Even the eye wall on the Southern side last night was breached by dry air, but it mixed the dry air out and bounced back. Note in the short term the coast between NC and VA is getting pounded, in the long term she is forecast to crawl across the lower part of NC and through the upper parts of SC (or possibly jaunt down the coast a bit to see Myrtle Beach) and weather will go EVERYWHERE. So the map is a guide it is not a set in stone deity to believe beyond anything else. And, it changes in real time so if you go to sleep at 10 PM because you saw the cone at 5 PM you may miss any changes in strength or direction at 11 PM when they make major changes. Don't wake up and act upset you didn't think that was happening because you missed the 11 PM. Weather happens in real time and the NHC adjusts by degrees as needed. She can speed up suddenly or come to a grinding halt and move tediously slow dumping rain over the same spot for over 24 hours. 


In some ways SC NC and VA blend together.

I like to think of VA as the Tidewater region.
But it's intrinsically connected to the Carolinas.
Rain bands are moving through NC and VA now.

Raleigh finally has a Tropical Storm Warning.
Even though we are not in the cone.
It's an oddly drawn cone.
I don't like it.
It gives people the wrong illusion.
They think if you are not IN the cone.
You won't get weather.
The cone is where the CENTER may go.
But we will get weather NOT in the cone.

Your local weather people are your best source.
In times like this they give you the best info.. it relates to your area.
One thing they don't do in NC vs Miami.. constantly give the radio station for news...

WRAL is on 101.5 on the battery operated radio.
Should you lose power.

Another good radar image.

I am in Raleigh.
The TV stations are live all day now.
Spectrum News is offering free service online.
Or on your phone you can download their App.
So far nothing really happening here inland.
But down at the coast... oh my...
My beautiful New Bern is flooding.
New Bern is where Pepsi Cola began.
Those trees are in standing water.
Add strong wind for days...
... trees are going to go down fast.

So love New Bern.
It's ten times nicer than Williamsburg VA
Or any of those old quaint places.
It's always got a breeze....
...hills, views... old homes, gardens.
And Pepsi Cola.
The town is awesome.
It's used to going under water in a Cane.
It's at the point where two big rivers meet.

Map for reference.

As for Raleigh.... 
..or any other town in NC SC or VA
This is when your winds should begin.

This is a stupid map. 
Being honest.
But it's a great map.
People have a love/hate thing with this grahic.
It's a good idea.
It shows when you may feel strong winds.
When you should be inside hunkering down.
When your preparations should be done.
It changes in real time... things change when a storm stalls or loops.
I'd say it has stalled.
Possibly making small loops.
They do that.
They don't just sit still.
They wobble.
They expand.
At some point they move faster.
Some hurricanes stair step ...
A bit to the West... a bit to the N
A bit to the West.
You get the idea.
You thought this would be easy?
Florence has never been easy.
But she's been tenacious, stubborn and determined

The strong wind field graphic below.
Note how different this is from the cone above.
The cone is the tracking of the CENTER
The graphic below is the STORM WINDS.

 And this is the Iconic Flag shown below.
It has been shown on the Nightly News.
On Social Media..

As for me I'm organizing (something Capricorns do often) and putting things in places I can find them in case the power goes out. It's possible, I have to know that, but I'm hoping we don't lose power. I cooked dinner for Friday night today in case I don't have power tomorrow or time. I cleaned, did laundry and moved some things away from windows in case I have a problem... But I'm not expecting a problem. But you prepare for the worst and hope for the best. I'm giving you an example. Keep your phones plugged in as much as possible at full power in case your power goes out and keep your power sticks full and somewhere you can find them. Flashlights, candles, medications all should be somewhere in an interior room where everyone can easily find them. Those are the basics if you live inland vs down at the coast where the tide has already risen and is flooding towns, beaches, stores and 2/3 of Emerald Isle is already out of power. Emerald Isle is a thin sliver of land South of Morehead.. it has a rough hurricane history and after Hazel and then after Fran in the quiet years people built homes like they never thought a hurricane would make landfall that strong again. I have friends who have homes there, it's their favorite place in the world. To me I prefer Morehead, Atlantic Beach and New Bern...and walking on the beach in Wrightsville and then going into Wilmington for dinner and to walk along the river and watch the sunset over the Cape Fear River. This storm is a watershed moment in my life as it shows me how much of a Carolinian I have become over the last ten years. Go Panthers!

Close up maps of the two areas currently under assault from Hurricane Florence.

I have a friend who owned a condo there...
she and her husband had a restaurant.
It was their happy place.
She died a few years ago.
Ella... adored her.

Below is Emerald Isle, Atlantic Beach, Morehead.
It's also known as SOBX
South Outer Banks

The Crystal Coast.
Shipwrecks, pirates and people who lived here for centuries.
It's all about being by the water... 

Below is Wilmington and all the beaches along the way.
Surf City at the Top.
Topsail... another sliver of land people love.
Carolina Beach
Kure Beach
At the bottom Bald Island...
..that could see landfall.
It's a crap shoot which town gets landfall

Ocean Isle Beach is a haven for starfish.
Beautiful South facing beach.

And you can's see where NC ends and SC begins below.
It's one region.
Myrtle Beach SC at the bottom left.
Ocean Isle Beach NC top right.
Forecast to get a visit from Florence.

I hope I have been able to give you something tonight.
Maybe see the NC SC area better.
To understand the region and why people love it.
Many families in Raleigh have beach homes or condos.
It's our beach even if it's over a 2 hour drive.
As for me...
..I see the leaves on the tops of the trees moving more than before.
The pines in the distant are beginning to sway.
I made dinner (BBQ Beach) ... husband is making a salad.
I'm going to go out on the balcony and feel the weather.
Stay tuned.

More to come..

* * *

Basics up on Spaghetti Models.
I'm on the top right next to NASCAR Weather.
Mike has it all. 
Or as some call him these days Drunk Monkey..
No words. Someone made fun of him yesterday.
His fans are loyal... they got his back.
And they are ordering tee shirts.

Spoiler Alert...He's very smart. 
Many credit him with helping them get thru Irma..
..and other storms.
With good advice as to what to do to prepare.
In depth advice on air mets can't do .. often time on air is limited.
That's why people go online to blogs like mine.
Or on Twitter or Facebook looking for info.
Much bad advice around but over time....
...people know who to trust time and time again.

As for who to trust let's look at the NHC page.
The infamous Cone.

They seem confident it doesn't want to go to Raleigh.
Note it WILL but will our weather be strong or weak?
Tropical Storm force winds in gusts or more?
They can update that if they want later.
People in Raleigh are taking it seriously.
Not as seriously as a winter storm....
...but seriously.

11 AM
NW at 10 MPH.
Slowing but still moving steady NW.
IF she doesn't bend WNW soon...
..they may need to adjust the cone.
Note NRL has adjusted their cone.
Raleigh is in the grid for TS winds.

I still think this is North Carolina's storm.
Down near the border of South Carolina.
We really are one basic region.
The Carolinas.

Note we are expected to see TS winds.
Why there are no watches or warnings up.. me.
Political reasons perhaps.
When you put up watches and warnings..
...certain rules have to go into place.
Seems everyone knows though...
RDU knows.

RDU is pretty much closed TODAY.
They got their planes out fast.
Many wait for an actual watch or warning.
We do have a Flash Flood Warning.

But apps tell me we will see "tropical storm conditions likely"

That's the wind profile above.
Shows winds in TS range.

Yes I know the tropics are alive today.

I'm watching Isaac for obvious reasons.
A bit out of concern for Florida but more likely GOM.

But I'm all about Florence today.

Back to Florence.
Sorry a bit hyper from Florence and the PSL from Starbucks.
Note discussion... watching Florence on Radar.

On satellite imagery.
Note rain spreading into Virginia.
This concerns me.

You can see the bottom side of Florence is flat.
The North side is full and intact.
Banding is moving through VA now.
Soon SC will see it also.
But there has been so much focus on the "dip"
...there hasn't been much focus on VA.
Though VA is in the cone.
Devil is in the details always.

Big storm.
Note she is very top heavy currently.
That could change in real time.

Radar and models on

More discussion below from the NHC:

No mention by NHC is WSW of SW movement.
Western Carolina and Eastern Tennessee.
Geography and demographics is my thing.
West of I95 NC is Eastern Tennessee in ways.
East of I95 it's more like North SC.
Unique region, localized differences.


WRAL is on 101.5 on the battery operated radio.
Should you lose power.
This is what you need the battery operated radio for.. stay in touch with the world

Some thoughts from Twitter.

Always curious on what Cranky has to say..

 So true what he said below.

The rest is mostly thoughts on my life in Raleigh today.
I'll be busy today preparing for what may be tomorrow.
I'll update later today after the 5 PM advisory package.

Dark and beautiful in Raleigh today.

Hurricane Florence now visible on our local radar and noticeable in ways in the air via the clouds, beautiful steady breeze and depending on where you live rain or drizzle, and rising water from the bays and inlets here that we call "sound" or "bouge" along the coast. To be clear I do not live by the coast, I live inland in the "Piedmont" where the land begins to rise but not near the mountains. Raleigh is the "in between" land, you can drive down to the coast for the day or up to the mountains though both can be a long drive depending on where you are going. In Raleigh this morning it's apparent the Hurricane is knocking on the door of North Carolina as the sky is heavily cloaked in dark gray clouds streaming in from the East and Southeast. There is a steady, beautiful breeze but not strong yet and drizzle is often seen in the air. I'm not used to that as in Miami you get heavy bands early on out in front of the storm, but here there is drizzle in the air and it looks as if it is about to rain but it just keeps fine mist drizzling.

So my thoughts are on past storms and communities of people who lived here in the 1800s and woke up to this weather and knowing it's not a normal pattern as cold fronts come in from the North and West and summer rain comes in dark and steady with thunder and lightning they had to know there was a big blow down by the coast somewhere. It must have been scary and worrisome as many people in Raleigh had family and business contacts in New Bern (the original capital of NC) and without cellphones or phones they had no way of knowing if their loved ones were safe. They also had no way of knowing how bad it was going to get in Raleigh as sometimes inland bound hurricanes came and tore trees out by their roots and knocked down fences, ruined crops and destroyed businesses; usually they don't make it up to this part of the state but when they do it's a long term mess. What did old settlers really know I wonder?

In Raleigh people are trying to squeeze work in today before we know for sure what tomorrow will be like. Parents are out with kids at parks especially near rivers doing what parents do before the storm... sharing a memory with their children of going out before the storm comes in.

The father walked the grandmother slowly down to the river.
The mother and the two little girls ran ahead.
And then they unpacked some food and sat a bit.
Raleigh is and always was a river city.

I was upset we didn't drive down to the ocean. I like to see the ocean before a storm to know what the storm is really like but I didn't want to get in the way of evacuation routes. When you have seen as many hurricanes as I have you can tell from the waves, surf and "the feel" exactly how strong the storm really is or how bad or easy it may be. Trust me on this... Sandy passed by Miami but it had a mean, cruel look and Floyd was one of the wildest oceans I have ever seen in Miami as it slid by us well forecast to by the NHC on it's way to creaming North Carolina. Andrew on Miami Beach was powerful, the sound of the ocean roaring like a jet's engine left on and without waver. So we went up to the Neuse River where we often go especially to do Tashlich a custom Jews have during this High Holiday period; any running water with fish it will do but we like to go up to the dam by the river where we often have picnics. Yes, we have enough gas for the short trip and yes it was worth it as it was very inspiring to me. Raleigh is here because of the river and on a quiet, gray day I could almost picture it as it looked years ago near where the mill was and where people lived before they dammed up the river creating Falls Lake. We could not drive up to the top for the view as the park was closed however people were walking up there around the closed signs. I had priorities, not hiking uphill for a long walk today. So we stayed here a bit.

So now I'm home.
This blog is powered by a Pumpkin Spice Soy Milk Frappe.
Sweet, delicious and perfect for the moment.
 Note Starbucks is closing at 6 PM in Raleigh today.
They will assess the situation for tomorrow...
...later today.
The Dollar Store and Harris Teeter are open..

I'm home organizing, watching TWC where on air meteorologists are standing by my beaches and places we spend our time at often. Local news is on as well and I've got things to do. I'll be on Twitter all day but will do a long update tonight after the 5 PM Advisory package comes in and the next set of model runs come out. It's an odd feeling on air mets I my beaches I love, watching from afar. I used to chase storms with others in Florida where we stood near the networks did their live shots before the storm... they often get moved up and down the coast depending on where the storm goes. Chasers move around a lot obviously chasing the storm, sharing important valuable data and taking video that is often studied after the storm for evaluation purposes.

So far not much has changed. Florence is weaker in strength, though still wide in size and still moving NW a bit slower but steady at 10 MPH. Will she stall? Where will she stall? Where will she make landfall? We know the 'who" we aren't sure on the when or where. Journalism 101 never goes totally away. Then does she decide to go for a jaunt down to Charleston as many up here do after spending the night in Myrtle Beach? People are prone to say "you wanna drive on down to Charleston?" and that's what we are wondering today regarding Florence's future track will she go West or slide south of West a bit? I'm not set on her going that far South but time will tell. Either way her storm surge spreads out like a huge fan in all directions as it approaches the coast so up in Virginia the tide is high and down in Myrtle Beach the water is rising as well. New Bern at the juncture of two rivers (one of my favorite cities) in the path of storm surge and they are prepared and waiting for it. Fayetteville may see more of the storm than many thought and I mean a good amount of wind not just rising water and evacuees filling up the motels from Down East. Down East is what we in North Carolina call the beach and bogue communities down east there by the beach. Core Sound and Bouge Banks.. inlets, bays with odd historical names familiar now to me and others who live in North Carolina. 

Good graphic from a wise meteorologist.
Followed him for more years than I want to say.
Note all the tracks take this along the NC/SC border.
Most tracks avoid inland NC..
Time will tell.
We are waiting to see and prepared.
This is more realistic than the last few days.
Less of a dip and more of a due Westward movement.
If you read previous blogs you know I spoke on this often.
I think it's more likely it will go due West...
...vs SW but Florence will show us her end game soon.

A local source for the Sandhills...
..but listened to far beyond the Sandhills.

Time will tell.
The show has begun.
Florence is center stage.
We are watching and waiting.
She seems to have Carolina in her path.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps... Mark Sudduth lives in this area.
He's on home ground for this chase.
A good local source.

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