Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Wednesday, August 29, 2018

Updated!! African Wave Up to 70% onium Tropical Trouble Comes in Twos. One Near Africa Forecast to be a Fish Storm. Closer to Us EURO Model Consistently Develops It in GOM As a Weak Tropical System.

Evening Update.

The wave is about to come off.
Not the old wave swimming.
The one watching the one swimming.
Just trying to be clear here... 
In the 2 day chances to develop.
Show below.

High odds for a wave that is still over land.

5 Day has 70% odds.

Discussion from NHC shown here.

Those are high odds.
No Invest yet but ....
...should show up soon.
For now models show it being a Fish Storm.
Though not buying models for a wave with no center.
Still over land.
Keep watching.

As for the wave in the Caribbean.
Models play with it but keep it low.
GFS doesn't like it.
EURO here.
We've been here before tho...
Usually the NHC errs on the side of the EURO.
Time will tell.
IF this develops it develops close to Florida.
In the Gulf of Mexico.
Shear is forecast to be light there... the time the wave gets there.
Again time will tell.

I'll leave you with the Mimic loop.
What we used to call the OJ loop.

latest72hrs.gif (947×405)

People ask why that wave?
Not the last wave that came off?
Why will that wave be the one?

Big money is on that wave being Florence.... 
Don't say I didn't warn ya.
If the Caribbean wave develops...
It would be the G storm.
As in OH GEE ;)

New wave, old wave, still rock and roll to me.

I'll update in the morning.
Sweet Tropical Dreams, 

Where to go when the NHC is confusing.
Where to go when TWC shows development.
Good discussion in real time.

Tropical Discussion on Tropical Waves Today.

A very healthy tropical wave moving closer in.
Why the NHC doesn't have a % circle up?
They will, because the Euro stays with it.

Trying to break down the confusion this morning on the various threats coming out of the tropics this next week or so. Note I say "threats" as currently there are no actual named storms, but things we need to watch while we go about our every day life if we live along the coast where hurricanes often make landfall. What is most confusing is that the area that the NHC has put on their map in yellow and orange today is the area we least need to be concerned with vs what is unseen currently on the NHC main page. What we need to pay attention to is the strong, stubborn tropical wave that is currently down by the Lesser Antilles forecast to pull more to the right in the near future. That "tropical wave" not on the main page of the NHC is battling wind shear and if the models are correct the shear weakens and the wave strengthens. Which model you are asking? The Euro model that is considered the most reliable model has been developing this particular wave into something in the Gulf of Mexico close in the to the coast around the middle of the coming week.

Currently there is an X over Africa.
A yellow X on the 5 day page from the NHC.
That X has a 10% chance of developing.

On the 2 day page it shows orange.

Is that confusing or what?

Now we move below to the wave with no circle.
Kind of sounds like a nursery rhyme.

This is the wave that is of possible concern.
Yet it has no circle.
Not yellow.
Not orange.
It should.
Models have consistently developed this wave.
Why haven't they put on it on their main page?
I don't really know.
No one knows.

This is why people online looking for more info.
People want clarity.
People want information.
Knowledge is power.

So much you can do today on a phone or computer.
That's the wave we were watching last night.
Still watching it today.
I think NHC can improve on the 2 and 5 day page set up.
As I said yesterday, perhaps side by side vs 2 pages.

Other government sites hint at something there on the 7th day.
They can't put anything there as NHC hasn't shown it.
Both government sites.

So this site above shows the red line.
The tropical wave is there down the road.
More good graphic we watch shown below.

1st one shows the African Wave.
2nd shows the areas to watch for tropical formation.
3rd one shows water temperatures.
Hot in the GOM

What bugs me this morning? The wave coming off of Africa and the one behind it are highlighted because the models develop them and they nothing is currently there but typical convection coming off of Africa. This area that maintained itself after falling apart (partially), staying together and flaring up still intact as a wave has great model support yet no circle. Perhaps the NHC doesn't want to yell "shark in the water" unless they are 100% sure it will develop. In this case they could at least call it "guppie in the water swimming West" and yet we are waiting for the shorter term threat to be on the map on the main page of the NHC. Note if you go back to the orange circle you will see I cut and pasted a snip of it the way I did because I wanted to show you where it will go and understand that this wave most likely will be a Fish Storm, developing faster out by Africa and moving up into the ocean. It is worth keeping this in the back of your mind that often early models can be wrong and the high allows it move more to the WNW and NW and then the models change as the high snaps back into place and it curves back to the right for a while waiting for a cold front to pick it up and take it out to sea. Fish storms like to go out to sea. It's too soon currently to know 100% what any of these areas will do, but when the Euro shows the same scenario for multiple days the consistency of the better model heightens the concerns.

Please refer to the link above for more info later.

As I pointed out yesterday in depth the water temperatures are extremely high in the Gulf of Mexico and near Florida. Should this little wave make it into the Florida Straits or cross Florida it could develop over the warm waters of the Eastern Gulf of Mexico while heading towards Louisiana and Texas. Again cold fronts are in play and unpredictable at the end of August in the South, a TD or TS being a Low moves towards the low pressure of the diving cold front but sometimes they stop diving near the coast and linger and that creates a problem.  

Again currently not a threat.

Proposed Fish Storm.

Currently a concern for the GOM
Tropical Wave down by the Islands.

Surging a bit as it moves towards the Islands.
It will continue to move towards Low Pressure.
Once it rises in latitude some.
Models consistently show this...
...models keep the intensity low for now.

I'll update later today.
If you did not read yesterday's post.
Please do.

Also TWC doing a good job today.
Not hyping the Caribbean wave.
Just showing it's there.
Relatively close in... 
Model support for a weak system.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps Good video from the TWC early coverage shown below of Hurricane Katrina. Today is the anniversary but before it went into the GOM it hit Miami. Similar pattern but not similar intensity. No models shows even hurricane force winds for the Caribbean wave and most (like the EURO) keep it at Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm status though that could change. It might not develop and just stay rain. It might get a name. Note how much the forecast for Katrina changed... over time. 

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