Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Monday, September 25, 2017

Updated. Models & Is Nate In the Wings? Watches & Warnings up for NC ...Maria Big Meat Eater... Lee Must Be a Vegan. Is Nate Coming to You in October out of the GOM? Most likely yes...

Rather than show the cone...
...showing the weather voice of the Carolinas.
Brad Panovich in Charlotte NC.

Note the storm surge threat is higher.
Because for a long time...
Maria will be pushing the water in..
And that area is prone to 
'Sound Side Surge"
Note the map below.

The wind will push the water...
around the top of Maria.
Piling up water on the sound side.
Not just along the ocean.
That's a lot of flooding.
Erosion... storm surge.

Another Carolina voice to listen to...
Mark Sudduth.

latest_wv_loop.gif (535×440)

Maria is barely moving.
You can see this on the loop above.
You can see why.
High Pressure to her N and NE.
To her SE there's high pressure.
She just spins and spins.
NOT moving 7 MPH.
Possibly forecast speed.
Do not focus on her center.
Focus on her weather.
It's about her weather...
Best way to look at impacts.
While not the Euro or the GFS
Worth looking at this model below
Shows Maria just touching OBX

Needs watching carefully.

Euro... close.

GFS close as well.

So I promised some discussion regarding the models for what may be Nate later next week. Models show lower pressures in a few prime areas popular for October development. One forms something closer to the Yucatan and another forms something just to the South of Cuba. Both move poleward though some models show Alabama and North Florida in play and others show Florida in general in play. None of these models are to be taken as true possible tracks as much as showing possibilities to watch for down the road. Obviously if something forms in the GOM it will want to go Northward and as I have said many times this year is primed for a Florida hit from the South if a system forms to the South while fronts dip down early as we move deeper into a La Nina year.

October 5th. Euro.

GFS forms a weak low off the coast of FL...
"it's the GFS..."

October 1st... still there.

GFS drifts it South... 
(can't make this stuff up)

Slides down.. fades away in the Keys.

Then on October 10th..
GFS favorite spot is hot again.
2nd system is down by Yucatan.
GFS now spits out lows everywhere...

GFS takes the low up into GA/SC line.

I mean really these show possibilities and nothing more. The season is not over because at some point Maria (who absorbed Jose) is going to shuffle out to sea after taking Lee along for the ride. Maria may win the Black Widow Spider Award for the Hurricane Season. 

The GOM is the place to watch but so is the Western Caribbean especially the area between the Yucatan and the Eastern tip of Cuba...or just South of Cuba. Draw a line between the 2 Low pressure systems above and you will find the area that most needs to be watched as we move into October.

One view is below on how this evolves.

Again as cold fronts dip South.
They provide tickets out of the Caribbean.
And Florida falls in the cross hairs.

So back to Lee and Maria.
Or is it Maria and Lee.
Odds are Maria wins this one.

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Maria is locked in place by the High to her North. You can see this on the WV Loop above. Blackness.
So she spins over and over ... over water that gets incessantly cooler and Lee gets a bit stronger far to her East. The High to her East pushes down on her for now. The cold front has not moved enough to pick her up. A feed of moisture flows into the Carolinas and up into Virginia... even West Virginia is getting clouds from Maria. Keep watching.

Note Lee is stronger wind wise than Maria.
Lee has high barometric pressure.
Hurricane winds go out 15 miles.

Maria is 10 MPH weaker.
Barometric pressure lower.
Hurricane winds go out 105 miles.

Bottom Line.
Do not minimize Maria...
because she is not a Cat 5 or Cat 3.
She's a huge weather maker.

11 PM Cone the same.
Not going to show it.
Sort of meaningless.
Maria is barely moving.
Wobbling. Kind of stalled out 
A lot depends on where you stake the center.

Weather getting closer to the coast.
Lee stronger but small.

Earlier image below.
Not to scale.

Maria at 5 PM.
Looking stronger than this morning.
Leaning in a bit towards the coastline.
Compare this with how she looked at 8 AM.

Still a vibrant, large hurricane.

Cone is the same.
Watches and warnings remain up

Arrival of TS winds...

Note how far inland that cone goes.
Possible TS winds.
Below is the relevant part of the discussion.

Note on the loop below.
The Western side of Maria fills in.
The part close to the coast.

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Models for Maria below.
How close she comes to the coast is the question.
Not where she goes down the road.

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Seems she goes to see the Queen.

At 11 AM Maria was stronger than at 2 PM.
Not by a lot but for now she's holding on.

Winds 80 MPH
North at 7 MPH
966 MB.

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Hurricane Maria is barely a hurricane this morning, however it should it's maintain strength as it swirls off shore of the Southeast coast with it's huge bands swirling out over the Carolinas. It has an odd signature where the strongest part of the circulation is further from land whereas the part closest to land almost looks erased as if a child has been playing with paint programs on my computer. She's fun to watch, out there spinning not threatening anyone much while she does her thing waiting for a ticket out of town. Yes I used "swirl" twice on purpose.

Let's pretend Maria is waiting at the Wilson Amtrak train station in North Carolina for the always late Silver Star to finally get there. There was a problem earlier and now the Amtrak train is stuck waiting for the freight trains who have priority over the passenger trains (dirty secret you don't know unless you ride Amtrak) and your train got stuck somewhere near Florence trying to get back on schedule. This happens often when traveling on the Silver Star vs the Silver Meteor that runs along the coast and is historically on time so you are used to waiting for the Silver Star to do her thing. Big Atlantic Hurricanes often stall and loop in the waters just North of the Bahamas, spinning around scaring people from Savannah to Charleston and yet they usually slowly start moving North towards a glancing blow at the Outer Banks. Yes I used "stuck" twice.

Maria is normal on that level, though other things about her make no sense. I'm not going to go long on all the possible reasons this is happening and I am NOT attributing it soley to "upwelling" which is easy to blame it on as everyone does hoping people will buy that for an excuse to things that are more complex and difficult to understand. Upwelling is one part of the Maria's problem, but only one part and it's easy to illustrate so check the maps above. I know ... it feels like Maria should be up by the Outer Banks but she's not there yet...

I've also heard it said that she's too big. Kind of like she needs two seats on the Amtrak train so they are blaming her slow demise on being too large (no one calls a once Killer Hurricane Fat but... yeah) and that is often a problem for a hurricane to maintain it's intensity when at higher levels (old age) it goes wide and spreads out over a large area. Compare and contrast Maria to her kid brother Lee out at sea. Lee is in good shape, small and compact but actually stronger than Maria who is still recuperating from her attack on Puerto Rico. Lee is probably a Vegan but a stronger runner and at 5 AM had 90 MPH winds, compared to Maria who is lumbering along (sorry I call it as I see it) moving North at 7 MPH still holding on to 75 MPH winds. Interestingly many feel Lee may be stronger than 90 MPH as small hurricanes that are ignored and far from recon often do not present themselves totally on satellite imagery tools used to extract the strongest winds. Note the two compared below in the image that shows their wind fields.

Okay Maria has a very visible eye.
Note the connected yellows.
Interesting graphic.
You decide on her size below...

latest_wv_loop.gif (535×440)
Official Cone below
Looks like a Limonana cone.
For those who don't know ... recipe below.

Typical hurricane gets to 30N latitude...
Runs out of steam (warm water)
Blows kisses to OBX and out to sea.
Except that's not the whole story.
Currently, this could change....
...rain is not supposed to be an issue.
Graphic below shows that.

And arrival of winds shown below.
It's a great map.
Good product.
Hard to understand.
People will get used to it.
If you live in Bermuda _____
If you live in New Bern, NC ____
Find your place in the world.
Tells you the time you COULD get winds.

Now let's go back to the big picture.
Look carefully off of the Yucatan.
Yeah I said that.
Take your eyes off the Twins...

Models have consistently developed a system (or two) down near the Yucatan in the Gulf of Mexico in early October that moves towards the Eastern GOM beaches. When I said Eastern I mean right of Nola and North of Key West.... somewhere in there. Depending on where and when it develops it could affect South Florida, North Florida or Alabama or Mississippi. It hasn't formed yet so for now think of it as a Fantasy Team on your Fantasy Football League and it's projected to do way better than the Panthers or the Fins did yesterday. I'm so bummed out from those games that I'm beginning to think Carolina and Miami need to move away from the Aqua and Teal colors and get stronger colored uniforms as yesterday the Fins looked as if they showed up for a Fashion Show rather than a football game and they were strolling down the runway rather than running up the score. Red is in style this year on the runways so they might want to try mixing it up...though no feathers. It's a fad and not sticking around. Neither is Maria or Lee... but Nate is out there somewhere showing up on the long range models. I'll discuss what may be Nate later today.

large_marchesa-red-strapless-cocktail-dress-with-ostrich-feather-skirt.jpg (1600×2560)

So where does that leave us? Are we really waiting on a cold front or going with the whole "westerlies will pick Maria up" wording?  Beven's always writes good discussion so it speaks for itself so I'll give you the link to it (please read it) but basically the top side is exposed (much like the dress above) and her core is in danger though she most likely will hang on though her intensity may drop a bit in the translation.

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I know, I'm not your normal person. I'd like a bit of wind and a few showers from Maria in Raleigh as that's who I am. The sky is very milky, white today so maybe there is some out flow or something out there hanging over this part of Raleigh. And, I'll be in Florida in October so I may get to see whatever the Caribbean has in store for Florida during it's climo favored assault from the Southwest. Nice to have two homes in ways. I've become quite the Carolina girl on some levels, pero I'll always be a Miami girl. It's a good mix. Luckily I have always been a big Green Bay Packers fan so I got to really enjoy a big win, coming from behind in over time. As I actually screamed though on that long play and when they won but not as big a scream as my daughter's boyfriend did when the Gators won this week.

I'll be back this afternoon with more updates and discussion on the threat of tropical trouble in the Gulf of Mexico as we turn the pages from September to October on our tropical calendar.

Much thanks to all who have interacted and discussed Maria, Irma, Jose, Harvey (etc) with me on Twitter. I'll admit it I'm a Map Slut. I've never seen a map I couldn't stop, stare at and mentally go places in my mind so you stick with the Fantasy Football and I'll get lost in maps.

Going to leave you with a few maps here. When hearing how upwelling destroys the chances for future storms to travel the same waters the 1954 and 1955 hurricane season make me go "oh really?"

track.gif (640×512)

3 storms braided, traced their way North.
All strong, all bad.
And then 3 did it again in 1955.

track.gif (640×512)

So... hate to go all Joe Bastardi on you but....
... explain why upwelling wasn't a problem then.

I'll be back later to discuss Nate.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter.

Ps... And that below is how my world turns.
Oh sorry for any typos. 
Not in the mood to proof today!
I'll proof on the Nate thing later.

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