Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Sunday, September 24, 2017

UPDATED.... TS WATCHES POSTED FOR NC to VA Line....OBX & Inland Sounds... Maria and Lee... HUGE Cones... Low Confidence. Weak Front Hopefully Grabs Maria ... Will Maria Stall? Maria Already to West of Forecast Points

Not outflow already moving out NW ahead of Maria.
Watch the outflow above.
Timing is everything.
So showing this cone first.

Note this goes up to the NC/VA Line.
Includes the Sounds Inland.
Storm surge from Cape Lookout to Duck
I would take that storm surge seriously.
It may not be high but could cause problems.

Key Messages from NHC:

swir_lalo-animated.gif (720×480)

Panthers loop above.
White loop below.

You can see how close Maria's outer bands..
...are to North and South Carolina.

So yes....
Watches up for the NC VA border.

Before and After.
The cone didn't move as much...
The models continually show impacts.
EURO Western most model.
GFS Eastern most model.
Been there before.
Irma for example.

Might possibly get extended up a bit.
Time will tell.

Much depends on where and when Maria turns.
Much depends on how far West she gets first.

There really isn't much difference.
Both models show a close call.
And that could get closer.

Euro below. Wednesday.

GFS below Wednesday.


Discussion for Raleigh.
I'll add in Wilmington later.
Point is Raleigh been taking it seriously.
Something to watch.. 

Wilmington, NC

Wind probs note go up thru VA.

A good link is below that discusses Maria.
And with regard to land interaction.

My bottom line here is this...  IF we didn't have the great models we do I'd tell you that I think Maria could get much closer to the coast than expected and may move slowly prolonging coastal impacts over a few days; much like Jose earlier in the week with Cape Cod. Eventually one of the fronts will catch it and grab and take it out to sea along with Lee. The set up is too fluid and the current front has a fragile look to it and needs reinforcing by the next one. Maria could stay over waters traveled by Jose that might be cooler than normal, or she could pull closer to the coast and intensify some or at least hold her own.

Great maps that show this are up on Spaghetti Models. Note the images below.

Red is hot.
Blue is not.

And lastly Mike is Live at 9 PM.

Note the point about the pressure being low.
However the winds not that high.
Again watch for storm surge.
Coastal impacts.
Learn from Irma.

 Those are my thoughts tonight. Really Maria needs to be watched as she is doing that flirt with the Outer Banks dance and often they come closer for a good look before going out to sea. It doesn't take much to have some roads get flooded and some beach erosion. And, boaters should beware and stay in port and take Maria seriously. Often things can change fast when a system is off the Carolinas.

Check your local weather if you are near or in the watch areas. Check often.

As always the Navy looks further out.
If you are in that shaded area.
Keep watching Maria.
Just to be on the safe side.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter.

 * * * * *

Wider Cone shown below

That's kind of like saying....
"wow gonna be windy out there"

Take the above cone ...
..with the Rainbow Brite cone below.

Huge amount of territory there...

I'm sure someone here remembers Rainbow Brite.

I'm pretty sure if NHC made an ice cream cone.. would look like the cone above.
Ever go to the ice cream store...
... stare, think calories...
ask for a cup rather than decide on the cone?
So many cones... too many choices.
Which 1 would the EURO choose I wonder..

I was a librarian for quite a while both in public libraries and academia. One thing you learn early on when doing information searches is to go wide if you aren't sure what the patron is talking about, then you go small, then you go wide again and eventually you figure out what they are looking for and find them the book or article they need. Then NHC goes WIDE often with their cone when they are not sure what information to give and confidence in the forecast track is low. When confidence is high they look as if they are on a diet and only doing Paleo; less choices and models all agree on the menu plan.

Of late it feels as if they are doing a super size me cone for these larger than life hurricanes. You remember the whole super size me concept I'm sure as most people just go "yeah" and nod when they are asked if they want the large vs the small. We are an odd nation in ways, we eat big, exercise bigger to try to work off that extra super sized meal and in the end we really don't get anywhere but well the rich get rich and the poor get food off the dollar menu.

Hurricane Lee recently referred to by the NHC as "tiny" has a huge cone too. Hmnnn funny but do you remember when I said not to forget about Lee even though he was dismissed by the NHC before being upgraded back to tropical storm status and then Hurricane Status and even went through a quick rapid intensification process earlier today.  That was why I said not to forget about Lee. Seems power wise Hurricane Lee wants to be super sized as well however they are barely paying attention to him. Big mistake. Everything in the atmosphere is related and the chaos theory with regard to Lee's butterfly wings may have some small impact on a forecast that currently has low confidence as seen by the large cone on the 4th and 5th day. See Lee's cone below. 

I'm on a post holiday diet.
No cones for me today.
Maybe Menchies in a cup later this week.
So rather than talk on NHC cones.
Let's look at the image below.
Maria missed her forecast point.

Some loops show forecast points.
They are changed at the new advisory.
You got to be sneaky and check fast.

See the eye of Maria is to the left of the forecast point.
Moved slower than forecast too.
You won't read about that tho in discussion.

Tidbits below from discussion.

My translation below.

Maria is moving slower than her forecast track and has already slowed down a tad as a high pressure ridge is pushing down on her creating a flat top and squished appearance. We believe the front will pick her out and take her out to sea before a real landfall. Expect OBX to see some noticeable weather from the closeness of Maria. 

Okay... I know they don't talk that way and they go long on a "forecast" vs explain why it's not already following their forecast. They put it into the forecast so the next forecast can verify as it's all about being right vs showing what is happening and then explaining why they have confidence in their current forecast but reminding people there's a wide margin of error sometimes. They did say their remains a "fair amount of spread on the timing of the recurvature. See the loop below:

ft-animated.gif (720×480)

Maria looks odd.
So does the front.

ULL to the West of Maria remains.

wv-animated.gif (720×480)

Note Lee on the other side...
...of the Great Divide
A High between them.
High is digging down.
For now nudging Maria to left.

Let's read on...
.. foreshadowing at 11 AM.

If things don't change soon.
NHC will go longer on this at 5 PM.
Anytime they say "regardless"
It's about to getting interesting.

One of my favorite songs...
Willie Nelson songs is below.

Lesser known but beautiful song.

ft_lalo-animated.gif (720×480)

Maybe it's a wobble west.
Irregardless . . . 

The front is caught...
..between 2 ULLs

wv-animated.gif (720×480)

I'm sure the front will look better in a few days.

Maria is just right of the ULL over the SE.
It's hot in the Carolinas.

10 day forecast for Raleigh.

My problem is trying to correlate the two.

Wiggle Room rears it's head again.
Not much of a cold front.
Heats up fast after a 3 degree difference.
Is Maria close to NC?
Has Maria stalled?
Did the front slow down?
Is it out to sea?

We are days away from a last stand. We are days away from a high confidence forecast or a cone that isn't as wide as Texas. So watching Maria spin and listening to people I trust online and keeping an eye on the NHC wide cone and then we will see what we will see. And, I'll be living on Spaghetti Models because it's got lots of good info and NO calories ;) or carbs (neat trick) and I'll be back with updates when I have something to say. Will that front be too little, too late or will the out to sea get delayed after Maria does the Outer Banks and strong tropical storm force winds move further inland than the NHC would like to say just yet?

allfcsts_loop_ndfd.gif (799×559)

Again up close look at Maria.

Time will tell.
But I'm watching.
We are all watching.
After that long bout with Jose...
Much of the coast is watching.

Stay tuned.
I'll update at the top.
Follow me on Twitter @bobbistorm
I update in real time there.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps... As I always say. This is a dance as old as time. Hurricanes flirting with the Outer Banks.

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