Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Friday, May 05, 2017

Progressing Forward Into the Hurricane Season... The Times They Be A Changing...

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There's a song that I can't remember about the times changing. We take two steps forward, one step back and slowly we move forward in time towards the unknown. I say unknown as the Hurricane Season of 2017 will only be understood in the rear view mirror or when someone adds the last storm on Wikipedia. To be fair the NHC will write a post season analysis of this storm and that storm and that will be the final word.

What we can see right now is that the Jet Stream is digging down deep as it is being whipped from the tightly wound Low to the North digging down low towards the Gulf of Mexico. If you look at the bottom left of the loop above you will see moisture congregating about like kids hanging out on a Saturday Night trying to figure out where to go.

That's digging deep down... 

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That digging deep is evident above.
Also a consolidation of moisture in EPAC

Looking further West ....

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You notice the flow from West to East. There is some twisting and turning off the coast of Central America near Panama. It's congregating but having problems pulling it together. Nevertheless models do show development in the EPAC, however what happens after that becomes iffy. This feels so deja vu and I hate to even bring up the discussion regarding models showing whatever forms moving West to East into the Caribbean. It does happen, it is rare and yet discussion on models showing it happening happens more often than reality. But, hey it's May and that's where we end up often this time of year... watching and wondering.

It's too early to talk on which model said this or that, but what is worth noting is that there is talking going on these days. So we watch, we wait and wonder and time moves on it's way like a fast moving river as it makes it's way to the sea. You can either sit on the banks or jump in and see where the river takes you. Currently, the moisture in the EPAC is on the fence trying to get it together. And why there is a purple sliver of color off the Carolinas I'm not sure but maybe it's there to get our attention and remind us Hurricane Season is less than a month away.

Writing this in real time.
Okay I lied.
I'll talk on models a bit.

2 itsy bity Lows form ...
...and go poof around Carolina.
But look down to the bottom left.

What is worth noting is the HUGE HIGH PRESSURE.

May 12th the High moves back a bit.
A closed low and possibly Adrian forms.
Moves towards landfall.
Moisture spreads inland.

Things change.
That's the Euro above.

The GFS does funky things.
Sketchy things?

They are kind of like 2 brothers from a different mother.
They have so much in common but so different.

As Juliet said to Romeo, "oh swear not by the inconstant moon" and as BobbiStorm says swear not by early models in May. As always watch the loops, read my blog, give me your thoughts on Twitter or wherever and watch it all unfold in real time. The only thing I can say for sure is change is in the wind as the times they be a' changing.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps Either way Mexico should be getting rain, one way or the other.

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