Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Sunday, October 18, 2015

Updated! Invest 92L Where Does it Go? Anchored in BOC.. Models messy and a Slow Mover if the Euro is correct again.

As of 2 PM the NHC pulled on it's GOM development... favor of Pacific development.

They have it at zero % now.
You can read why below in my discussion from a little while ago.
They left the circle for now so..keep watching.
Not over til its over.
As long as part of that area stays in the BOC..
as the other part pulls away.
We could be watching model madness for the next week or so..

As I said earlier.. a lot of the area is over the Pacific.
Pacific this year is hot due to El Nino.

Note one went to ... Alaska.

The next named storm would be....
Patricia :)
Not Pat or Trish or Patsy... 

Odds are high at this time as seen below:
 "Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent"

How do you get from Olaf to Patricia?
Who makes these names up anyway?

If this plays out the Euro wins again over the GFS.
What I will say for the GFS is it does call the weather.
Moisture from this system will move North towards GOM states.
Potential for trouble is shown in Green for Wednesday.

Keep watching.
Read discussion below that explains why NHC is losing faith in..
the K storm . . .
...and believing in the P storm..
P for Patricia in the Pacific.

Watch the flow of moisture below.

And um... YAY on Fins Win!!

avn-animated.gif (720×480)

That's our Invest parked down in the BOC.
Note I said "parked"
Moisture is flying off away towards Florida.
West Coast of Florida can't catch a break this year.
For now.......High pressure reigns across the Northern GOM.

Note Winter to the North.
Summer in the South.
Front draped across the SE.
A wave out in the Atlantic I am not gonna talk about.
Looks like a pale ghostly parrot...
And our Invest around the Yucatan... 
I think personally it looked better Friday.
But it's supposed to look way better by Monday...
Time will _____ 
Fill in that blank...

Shows the Invest on the left.
The parrot on the right.
Our Invest is currently named 92L
Could be Kate..if it ever gets a name.

Close up view of Invest 92L with land outlined in yellow

NHC says this about that...

What does Mike say?

He's good. He sums it up well.
I'm going to go long, of course.
Not easy to get inspired here as it's weak still.
Watching tropical loops and football ...
Must be Fall ;)

Hard to write about something that doesn't want to join the party. The models have been inviting it into the Gulf of Mexico for days now. They actually agree on the point of conception down in the Bay of Campeache but its lingering, taking it's own sweet time. Note that is more in line with what the Euro says vs the GFS that picks it up and slams it into the Upper Gulf Coast.

Yeah, they don't agree. Tell me something I don't know....

To be honest it's hard to take models seriously when they back off every day on the solution. We use a bit of humor while telling the story sometimes. Well, if we have a sense of humor. I had a boy friend once who didn't think I had a sense of humor, he might not have noticed while focusing on other things... yet some of the funniest people in the world think I do ..go figure. 

Hey.. it's an issue and well shown.
A good part of this Invest is in the Pacific.
A good part is over land.
A good part... is in the Gulf of Mexico..
or more specifically Bay of Campeache

The GFS takes the system north up towards the Texas region..
I say region as it could go far inland according to some models.
Ozarks... and affect parts of Louisiana..
This is what the GFS is dreaming...
Obviously it's seeing a strong reason to pull it north.
IF the GFS plays out it could be epic Fall Rain.. flooding?
Note (that's my word for this year) Midland Texas already had floods
So it's not to be totally discounted.

So that is what the GFS is dreaming

They start off close together.

Then they separate and the EURO holds onto Kate... 
...for a long time.

Note the NHC is leaning towards that solution it's yellow circle is small.

Note the models are not always a help

This is the reason I put up the song Mexico on the last blog.
There is always a method to my musical madness....

Would be fun to see what Miss Yanet says on that.

So let's look at this from a larger perspective...

You see its about what you focus on..
If you are watching the ATLANTIC Basin..
You forget part of this is in the Pacific Basin.
Sort of a double vision system...

The C Team models take this into the Pacific...
Now you know why... if you hear that possibility..

Note the NWS Forecast Discussion for Shreveport Louisiana tells a story.

Mexico or Oklahoma? 

What do I think?

I think its possible Carolina wants pay back ....
.....for that late night Fire Alarm in their Seattle hotel

I think everyone wants to see if the new coach for the Fins means a Win?

I think we should take a break and wait and see.
Keep watching.
It's not ALL about Winter ya know...

Well some people are doing winter.
I know better.
Yes in NC there was frost on the roof tops.
Jack Frost mooning those Halloween pumpkins.
But I'm a tropical girl and there might be trouble in the tropics.
So til it snows where ever I'll be going...
I'm going to be talking on the tropics
Keep rocking me baby...

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter
Talk to me... tell me what you think...


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