Hurricane Fred IN the Cape Verde Islands. Historic. Tampa & Charleston Rain.. A Look at the Analog Years for 2015 Hurricnes so far...

Discussion from NHC

First hurricane landfall in CV Islands since 1892....

Note 1892 and 1893 strong CV years.

1893 a year we don't want to repeat again ever...

1893 a TS went through and kept going to Georgia.

Long tracking CV Canes with US landfalls.

Note most are fish storms that do that track.

Not all.  I am not discussing where he goes.

For now I just want to enjoy him on sat imagery.

Maybe stalk him a bit on web cam ;)

Note how he looks from far away...

Note how the wave nearing the island bulges but doesn't roll.

Look how wound up Fred is... 

Love the morphed composite loop.

Some web cams for the Cape Verde Islands..

may or may not work for you...

Thanks Fishing and Crown Weather !!

http://www.webcamgalore.com/EN/webcam/Cape-Verde/Sal/620.html

http://www.capeverde.com/live-webcams/sal-webcam-pontao-santa-maria.html

Good history link and other links to learn more..

http://www.capeverde.com/history.html

More diverse than most would imagine...

http://www.wetterklima.de/cams/stadtcams/santamariacam.htm

Let's look at Fred close up on TWC site.

They have International Weather.. 

That's Fred, far away but still in our thoughts.

Up close we have local weather. 

Charleston flooding.

From remnants of Erika and her stalled trof boyfriend.

Boy when it rains it pours...so true.

Just another Maniac Monday...

Tampa and Charleston have the make it stop raining blues...

Sandbags are in the vogue in Tampa this summer.

http://wfla.com/2015/08/30/storm-dumps-heavy-rain-on-tampa-causing-flooded-streets/

Meteorologists have pointed out the rain in Tampa is NOT Erika.

So true. In reality it's another stalled out trof over Tampa....

...with a little bit of Erika..

Let's call it stalled trof with infused tropical air making for an Artisanal Brew.

Speaking of brews..

http://cigarcitybrewing.com

Available in the airport in Tampa..if you are flying thru..

Try their brew ;)

My favorite of course....

...bet you knew that one ;)

It's been a crazy year in the tropics.

Busy Pacific...which we knew would happen.

Busy Atlantic which we were not expecting.

Around the tropics in general.

You can wave bye bye to Erika and her remains.

Also note she let some remains in the GOM

Waves in the Atlantic moving towards Islands kicking up.

GOM steamy too...

South of Hispaniola ... go figure ...

This is very clear here ...

So find your favoite loop and watch Fred do this thing...

..he will soon hit cooler waters and deal with other problems later in his life.

One of the things about weather that is amazing is how each year is different and yet on an overall grander level climatography wins out. But taken from one spot on Planet Earth an individual year can stand out for drought or record floods. Yes, it may average out over time. Someone wants to move to Charlotte, NC and they go online and Google "average weather temperature Charlotte" and get an average high of 70.8 degrees Fahrenheit. They think "wow, that's nice.." and the average low is "48.8F" sweet.

Averages don't tell the story.

It gets hot as blazes in the summer with little air movement.

Steamy, hot, sultry, Southern summers.

In the winter it can go way down below freezing.

Ice Storms, Hurricanes are possible though not probable.

It's foggier often than say Raleigh .. 

It's not San Diego..let's put it this way.

A really beautiful city. 

I heard Bryan Norcoss say on an average Miami...

.... has a hurricane every 2 years.

That's possibly true mathematically but...

you can go 10 or 20 years without a real hurricane.

Then a decade like the 1940s comes along and you have 2 a year.

An average doesn't really tell the story.

Do Analog years tell the story I wonder?

Earlier this year the Dream Team in Colorado put out a forecast.

CSU ... you know the one.

Gray and Klotzbach

They put up the following list for analog years.

1957

1987

1991

1993

2014

How did they do?

Depends which variable you are choosing to look at...

Landfall?

Intensity?

Majors vs Minors?

Let's look at the one that showed  long trackers.

All of these years had healthy Cape Verde Storms.

Carrie was a Tropical Storm just SE of the Cape Verde Islands.

Cruised by them to the South...

A long tracker I may add.. 

1987 featured 2 CV Storms that formed near Africa.

Before the Cape Verde Islands..

Not Hurricanes but still formation very far East.

Busy year everywhere. 

E & A storm similar tracks

Again 1991 a TD in the CV Islands.

Danny formed far to the East also.

Dennis formed near the CV Islands.

Cindy was killed by the unsual suspect...

Edouard formed near the CV Islands 

Bertha and TD2 formed far to the East.

Long trackers.

Bertha survived Hispaniola but was a fish storm.

Arthur danced near Ana.

If you think this is normal to have so many long trackers...

...you are wrong.

Many years nothing forms East of say 50 West.

Tropical Waves wander west and flare up, get named, die out.

And many years its common to have at least 1 storm that forms out there.

But if you pick 5 random years ... 

I'd say the one common denominator of these analog years is..

Early formation by or East of the Cape Verdes.

Long trackers even if they fizzle.

2015 so far...

I used Wikipedia to be different and...

though it didn't form over Africa we watched it over Africa.

Pouch study and all to be discussed on another blog

On a micro level...

Tampa and Charleston are in the news nonstop for flooding rain.

No direct landfalling hurricane but flooding rain.

Does rain need a name when it hits historic levels?

If your street is flooded and you can't leave the house...

That's memorable rain.

Oddly a little over 200 miles to the SE Miami is in a mild drought.

4.3 Hours drive according to sources online.

279 miles to the N Raleigh is in a mild drought,

4.6 hours drive according to the same sources online.

Probably not how long it takes your son-in-law to drive...

But I digress..

Even within a small area weather can vary.

One part of Raleigh gets snow..

..another gets rain.

One part of Palm Beach gets rain...

....another needs rain.

Weather is amazing.

Weather is hard to forecast.

Climo almost always wins on the average.

Looking back at 2015 we will remember Cape Verde systems.

One storm may form that becomes memorable like Katrina or Andrew.

Or one weak TS may wobble on shore Charleston or Tampa ...

...and make a bad situation worse.

A Cape Verde Hurricane hitting Cape Verde Islands.

Go figure.

So far Hispaniola is doing it's job.

If we get a storm that goes UP and OVER the islands...

...will see if the US gets lucky once again.

Prayers for those in the Caribbean recovering from Erika.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter.

Note I'll update at the top with current breaking weather news..

...be it floods or Hurricane Fred.

Thanks for reading.