Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Sunday, August 16, 2009

TD 4 Forms in the NE Gulf, ANA Weak Moving West and Bill is Bottom Heavy and Complicated...

Here is the wide open view of the Atlantic to put what I am writing in perspective. Again, what I am writing is a "Bobbi original" and not the thoughts or words of the NHC or an online site... just giving my thoughts. And, I was right and that wave that made it into the Gulf did connect with lingering Gulf moisture and did form this morning into Tropical Depression #4! See below.. how close it is to land..

NHC being properly cautious with TD 4 and while she swirls just off the West Coast of Florida she is marginally a Tropical Depression but in this strange year we will take what we get and she is landlocked and will most likely make landfall as a Tropical Storm. The Tropical Advisories will keep every ones eye on it just in case it becomes stronger and that way no one can later complain they had no warning.

Not saying her upgrade to Tropical Depression was a CYA situation for the NHC as much as a wise decision. A cruise ship account nearby not withstanding, she hovers at Depression status and it's there is a small difference between a strong tropical disturbance and a very weak depression. Considering they kept Ana as a TD with barely a red dot in the ocean it is wise to keep a close watch on her and if need be the warnings could be dropped. Radar imagery is and has been very compelling for a center being there somewhere. Will know more later.

Also, note that if it moves off the coast a bit it may spin up stronger as part of it is still over land right now. So, keep watching it is an unfolding weather situation.

What Accuweather calls "home brew" I believe...

Winds strong on Ana's north side. Interesting comment by Steve Lyons this morning on Ana as I hadn't thought that the convection to her NW was really part of her big invisible envelope and the red dot at her center has grown this morning and she looks better after my shower this morning than she did when I went to bed last night. Is that area to her NW really part of her or traveling with her big, invisible circulation? All storms have a pocket that travels with them, the good ones get big tough Offensive Lineman to block... other's are like quarterbacks struggling on their own.

Bill.. oh what can I say here? Bill is very bottom heavy.

This is my question of the day... what happens when the strongest areas of convection and wind are in a storm's bottom half. I mean ... a storm is supposed to have a center, especially one with 45 mph winds. Yet, the strength of this system is it's large bottom tail and I would think that is a tale in itself that is yet to be written. IF that is where his strength is... won't his track stay further south than expected as he seems weighed down and anchored. Could the track be adjusted further south? Could the center of circulation become relocated to the south. I really think there are a lot of questions on Bill and as Bill has the potential to be the big MITCH like storm in side... those questions need some answers. And, I am sure the NHC is working hard to figure this one out..

But, right now as fun as it gets for trackers and chasers to have 3 systems with advisories the fact remains.... two are very weak and the other has the potential to be a big one and yet can't seem to see it's potential the way the models do.

NOTE: If Bill stays further south and weak he gets much further west and is less likely to take his opportunity to re curve out to sea. Not sure Bill is a fish as much as a cruiser.


Bottom line:

TD 4 is compelling and close in and pay attention, small storms can spin up fast and cause very bad localized damage. Ask anyone on Cudjoe Key (which is about as small as it gets) they had steady, strong weather and one thing noticeable about wanna be Claudette (beautiful name) she has long, long tails down into tropical moisture and where ever she goes there will be training of tropical moisture, localized flooding and possible tornadoes.

ANA is moving west, faster than she ever has and will most likely fall apart somewhere but if she doesn't she could reform in the Carib and become a player down the line. This is based on Bobbi knowledge and a deep respect for a storm that has come so far against so many odds. Again, she is staying with the bottom of her old cones and that bears attention. We are no longer talking about her walking across Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic on the way to a play date in Key West.

Forecast was a little busted there and busted forecasts need close attention as something has consistently been missed by the models.

BILL is a big, bottom heavy storm and as with the tracks of his two previously mentioned siblings.. the models are having a hard time with track this season and intensity. Why? They are not reading something well and perhaps with good hurricane hunter data they will be better. Big, slow moving storms (note speed is way slower than Ana's current forward speed) that sit anchored in the ITZ and have not pulled north will most likely stay within the southern part of their forecasted cone. IE... East Coast do not take your eyes off this storm as he develops far out in the Ocean.

As for trackers, forecasters and chasers? Are we having fun yet? If are in the wrong business... got a cornucopia of tropical delight going on today and will be back with pictures and thoughts as the days events unfold.

Steve Lyons doing a damn nice job at TWC covering TD 4 that I do think will become upgraded and is a real "weather event"

Watch Bill, because he's big and is going to do what he wants to do and right now he is cruising west. Ana is an island storm!

Going to play at The City.. HurricaneCity :)

Besos Bobbi

Loop to watch the drama of Ana, have said for a while she needs to get past 50 or 55.. can she? Watch for blow ups at the center.


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