Hurricane Harbor: Noon Update. Bermuda in the Crosshairs ...TS Watches Up!! Philippe Still 45 MPH ... Convection Removed From Center BUT Looking Better. Long Range Travel Plans Maine/Canada. Down the Road in the Tropics......October towards November Thoughts

Reason for upgrade is Bermuda Concerns.

If you have been watching models, and we all do, you've seen something forming off E Coast and then most models lose it. It's a non-tropical low that might form that would become irresistibly drawn to Philippe as obviously it has a low bar for pure attraction. That could impact the track of Philippe, tho to be fair everything seems game with Philippe. But this pushed the hand of the NHC and watches are up currently for Bermuda, seen below along with relevant discussion from 11 AM NHC advisory package. Actually I kind of take that back, Bermuda put up the watches as obviously they can. Seriously you can't take make this season up that's been brought to you by the "See Maine" Tourism Company!!

"The Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
Bermuda"

Note yellow dot by Bermuda

From NHC Discussion below.

"The track guidance is in good agreement on this general scenario, although there is some east-to-west spread among the models related to how Philippe interacts with a non-tropical low that is forecast to develop to its west in about 2-3 days. "

Compare and contrast 11 AM Cone

Cone below 5 AM

Please continue reading blog from 9 AM

Back to the basics. NHC Cone.

There's a good discussion on the NHC site that explains all the ongoing problems that poorly organized Philippe is dealing with and as you an see from the picture above it's "center" is still not aligned with it's stronger convection to the Southeast. Other than an academic discussion on this I'll add that it's raining heavy over various islands creating weather drama in real time and as it's moving slowly it's not going away soon. Rain is always good, but where there's elevation comes the threat of flash flooding and add in strong gusty winds adds another layer of misery. The long term travel plans remain the same, North eventually towards Maine and Canada and most likely absorption into a larger system at the higher latitude that it merges with .... but that's down the road some.

Honestly it doesn't look that bad for a 45 MPH Tropical Storm. You can see the round, curvature around it and the strong convection is consolidated near the center, yet not well aligned as I said. It's also October and there is a little less oomph in the Tropical Atlantic so all in all not really looking that bad. It's just still misbehaving, not in a rush to get to Maine/Canada. And, if it follows the forecast once it begins to move North it'll take off like the proverbial October Tropical Rocket it'll be once it feels the need to merge and test out those higher latitudes. You can see from the image above how far apart the forecast points are and that's a fast moving storm.

Note Bermuda is in it....

...depending on it's eventual actual track.

http://www.weather.bm/

Philippe has often surprised us so pay attn!

A look at the Mimic below...

...shows us where the moisture goes.

1. Starting from the Left to the Right....EastPac far left shows an active Pacific.

2. An area in the GOM of moisture providing rain to Texas...currently.

3. A wet, moist Caribbean but shear is still there because of El Nino.

4. Philippe looking like it wants to race off to the NE.

5. The blue/green area to it's right pushing keeping him from rushing off to the NE.

6. An active ITCZ still for October with some concentration of color but not really anything yet.

7. All those blues and violets from Florida North is cooler, drier air. My windows are open.

See EPAC Main Page.

Some discussion we get a cross over system.

Again.

Maybe.

Lastly looking far down the road.

Maybe another ATL system, maybe.

Something in BOC goes to FL (maybe)

Basically more of the same.

Lastly I'll say it again this is a typical El Nino season that has a warm, MDR region with waves strong enough to form and follow the game plan (that includes curving away from landfalls due to some shear in the Caribbean/Tropical Atlantic) and marching off towards Maine/Canada. Water warm enough to produce a lot of storms few will remember, though Philippe will be remembered in the Islands for being the one that broke the mold and turned too late. Ace freaks can pat themselves on the back that we are on our way to the S storm (NHC doesn't use Q) but again mediocre systems adding to "named storm days" totals and nothing else.

To get Winter Air really flowing we need hurricanes that go North and disrupt the stagnant flow and aid the movement of cooler air South by the bevy of cold fronts getting ready to try getting the winter show on the road. People who love Winter Weather or any real weather... cannot wait.

As always this time of year you have to pay attention to anything that forms near the Yucatan and gets near the Gulf of Mexico as it'll make landfall somewhere, usually near Florida. November brings "help me which way to I go" tracks as late season tropical storms that are late to the show can't figure out where to go.