Updated Noon Rina Forms! Troubled Forecast for Philippe. Reset the Models. Let's Start Over ... I Want a Do Over. Philippe Hanging on to Ball & Chain 91L (Rina) Caribbean Convection Moisture Train and Miami Rain.

Rina Cone.

Slow movement for days.

Then takes off for NW turning Right.

First cone.... can change.

11 AM Cone for Philippe

Smaller cone.

Wide meaning high uncertainty.

Models below.

Models for Rina below

Bottom line at midday... let's wait and see how both systems do and wait on more model runs and know they are there and Hurricane Season is not over. 

Sorry I didn't update earlier but I have a brother who had a sudden health question so they are doing tests, kind of like waiting for next model runs... so hopefully he's okay just needs some meds.

Not sure meds will help Phillippe or Rina... more a matter of time, they need time to move further apart and in time we should know and I'm not writing an essay on time.. Nuff Said.  Will update if anything changes from NHC. My thoughts below are the same, nothing really changed except Rina did form (finally) and models just flipped and I'm getting a cold front next week ... unless models flip again. 

* * * 

10: 30 AM

Leading with this graphic above.

Just about says it all.

Not sure I ever saw one like this...

... thought it was a graph of the Dow!

Intensity models do not agree.

Using this graphic as it is easy.

I'm a writer not an artist.

Mike is in Talledega ..

...go Mike and family!

Invest 91 not yet Rina.

NHC said maybe today...

or tomorrow. 

We have the huge complex known as Philippe and what wants to be Rina in the Atlantic so close it's hard to see where one begins and the other one ends. 91L (Rina) looks like it's part of Philippe's outer banding. A huge frontal boundary complex goes from the EPAC up through the Carib into the GOM into off the coast of Carolinas (some remnants there from you know what) and out to Europe.  Possibilities of something off the coast of Carolinas and something down in the Caribbean has dreams of getting a name and a measure of fame. 

Note Philippe is barely making any headway and how could it as it's being dragged down by 91L like a ball and chain and they just ooze about transfering energy back and forth from one to the other though for now Philippe is winning despite attempts by NHC to write it off. 

So we are going to give it some time and I will update this blog later today.

Problem really is models cannot properly handle both systems at the same time properly, especially at this time of year when we are done with summer but not yet ready for winter and even the forecasts for the current Fall period are conflicting. Either we are getting a kick ass cold front in a week or so or it's just gonna be mild with a chance of CAD (cold air damming) in the Carolinas. Sunny and so pretty today I feel this crazy urge to take the garbage out just to take some pics of the sunny skies as yesterday it was gray like Seattle, but not as pretty or bright as Seattle gets when it's a shade of gray that is really more white than dark as the pit from pole to pole.

90% chances of formation.

Philippe still cfrazy after all these years.

(it just feels like years)

The reason for discussion at the top.

And the Cone at the bottom.

Was to explain the Cone.

Shown below...

The real truth is....

They don't know...

Again let's look at those models.

Bottom Line:

It's going to wander along to the West for now, possibly dragging what will be Rina with it or with Rina pivoting around it leaving it in the tropical dust. Or they are going to fuse together into a power incredible to behold. Or one wins out and the other dies or wanders along trying to find traction somewhere else.

They don't know.

Truth is for a while it'll go West as it's a weak mess (it's meaning the whole messy complex there) and at some point (should it survive) it'll pull North towards the Poles anyway it can when it can as that's what tropical systems are progammed to do. Perhaps we need to hit the reset button. Meanwhile something may brew up from the Caribbean but not yet as we move into the first week of October we will watch more carefully. It's going to rain, rain, rain, rain in South Florida somewhere for the next few days from the stalled out boundary, tropical moisture all colliding as it's just that time of year.

Next 5 days rainfall forecast.

Sweet tropical dreams,

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram

Until Philippe breaks up with 91L

(and vice versa)

They are stuck dreaming... 

Action is needed here.... 

...which one blinks??

Okay that's an oldie goldie from when Hurricanes were female!

Let's go older.... 

If you live in Miami....

...it's all about the rain.

Just rain.

Not tropical rain.

All the same though

(you thought I was gonna play Alanis ??)

(always been an 80s girl)

I was gonna explain the Billy Rose song

But that's a sad story.

He lived in the shadow of his wife's Ex.

No one wants sad today.

Not me.

I'll update if there is something ...

...definitive to say.

Haha no not that jingle either.

still here?

...go get out enjoy the weather.

Winter is coming.

Also maybe Rina and Tammy and 

oh my goodness Whitney for Halloween?

Vince

BOO!!

I see both of you :)