50 MPH Storm/PTC16 Possibly Ophelia Later Today. Moving Just W of Due North. Recon in Storm. Problems from Carolinas UP to NY/NJ Check Local NWS Please.

I want to lead with this picture not the cone.

To the S of the mess of cloud cover.

You can see the center emerging

Developing.

Strengthening.

I'm going to be honest, old school Bobbistorm honest, this is a fast moving, changing, developing situation and the NHC is trying hard to stay on top of it and yet at the same time have their forecast verify and giving areas up the coast a heads up that beach, coastal problems that could include beach erosion, strong dangerous tides and flooding of all kind. River flooding in VA and into Chesapeake Bay, coastal flooding and then regular old flash flooding. 

There's a river called "Murderkill River" (remind me to Google that one) but I do not want to digress. As I said yesterday it's developing close in and strengthening as it moves towards landfall as it "re-forms to the North" in a leapfrog fashion and is now going "just West of Due North" ... this is typical NHC trying hard to be steady, wise and as always a bit too Academic to explain the real problems to the general public that sadly is on TicToc following Weather Psychics doing forecasting" (the problem is real in 2023) and God Forbid people just go to their LOCAL NWS and check out their LOCAL problems that what should be Ophelia by 5 PM after Recon makes the call .... 

All I did was put in "New Bern NC NWS"

Rather easy.

Or go to Google

You can check winds and time of winds.

Remember one thing the NHC is covering the whole general area as best as they can. NWS adjusts as the NHC adjusts. For example there's a Tropical Storm Warning a few miles to the East of where I live, they may move than West or they may not. Either way we are said to be expecting gusts up to the 50 MPH range where I live, a neighbor is literally cutting down a broken branch on a tree near his house. People in NC take it seriously.

Stronger the storm gets the wider it's wind field goes, and yet the Cone gets smaller and yet the wind field around this system is huge, by any name. Your life is not Academic and often things change fast with a system like this that is dancing/flirting with the Cold Front. Old timers here know how this plays out, newbies sadly do not.

Let's compare this graphic above with the Cone

The hazard area is FAR from the Cone.

NOT in the cone.

Find a local expert.

Mine in Raleigh is Allan Huffman.

I follow him on Patreon

(cheaper than a PSL at Starbucks...)

I'd also suggest subscribing to Windy

Has valuable info and a joy to use.

Euro WIND GUSTS today.

HRRR lil later today.

See how far these are ahead of the storm.

Far to the West and North outside Cone.

Let's look at WAVES

CURRENTLY   Waves.

NHC following the "center"

This is a huge winter storm

Hybrid Storm with a TS attached.

You need to do Your Best

For YOUR AREA

While following this WXR DRAMA

I'll be back later

Have places to go now ;)

Update at 5 PM

Don't get lost in semantics.

Check your WXR APP

NWS 

Not a Tic Toc Weather Psychic

Ps Pressure is dropping.... 

winds go up

***

9:30 AM

Center showing itself

Pumping... 

Moving inland I think.

Not wishcasting.

You know that song...when a force meets an irrestible force.... we have more than one factor here and more than one fight going on here. You can fight, fight, fight with all your might but as the song goes something's gonna give.  Cold front ......meets late September quasi tropical system on the day of the Equinox ...what sort of child does it breed? Tropical or Cold front? Tropical Nor'easter? Something's gotta give! 

Below is the Discussion from 5 AM

 NH says Tropical Cyclone ...for a hot minute (a trend this year?) then BAMN INLAND. And, of couse it'll be Post Tropical/Extratropical (choose one) as we have Nigel gone but Post Tropical the way Idalia was and Franklin was and well you get the idea.

This system is pushing the envelope.

Pushing all the buttons.

Cool air rushing into my area.... 

...I was on the balcony needed a hoodie!

Is what it is.

Equniox just always delivers.

Clash of the seasons.

I will update at 11 AM at the top.

Hope NHC doesn't just tell ppl....

 to listen to NWS.

I do but most people do not.

Cone distracts at times like this...

..yes disclaimer "outside the cone"

Human Nature looks at CONE

NHC sexy

NWS intesting.

You know that MEME... 

Anyway got things to do today.

5 AM Cone

Problems shown above.

Across a wide area.

To be continued

Blogging in real time.