Hurricane Harbor: Updated 5 PM Potential Tropical Cyclone SIXTEEN ... Could be TS Ophelia or Subtropical Ophelia or Just Ophelia?? Maybe. Coming Together FAST ... Lesson From Boxing... It may Sting Like a Bee Not a Butterfly! Tropical Storm Warnings UP Now!

5 PM Cone

Does take the center inland

...then back towards Ocean

NC/VA impacts...

...then up the coast.

While waiting know 90L joined the party.

Hmnnn Westbound Wave....

40% 2 Day 80% 7 day

NHC making a race for Ophelia name

4 PM thoughts.

Models consistent until landfall

Then every which way it can.

Content aka Cranky....

tries to explain this set up.

"Impacts strong and on the way"

I'll remind u impacts = problems

This is the question. Does "Ophelia" move INLAND or stay near the coast. Ed in SC posted this and it shows a more Westerly track. Several models are currently West of NHC earlier track cone so will see what they do soon at 5 pm. Raleigh NWS Forecast Discussion, note it can change depending on what PTC15 does. Some mets insisting it'll just slide along OBX up into Virginia. We will know soon enough! Rain arrives tomorrow afternoon in NC........

Cantore shows concern for Virginia

River flooding.

Bottom line.........

......gotta give it time.

Rome wasn't built in a day.

Ophelia is waiting in the wings.

Keep reading if you haven't.

Everything I wrote is still relevant!

That accelerated quickly.

And will continue to do so all day.

Cone only tells part of the story.

This tells you that the NHC believes it will have Tropical Storm Force WINDS in 12 hours and in 36 hours if the forecast verifies it will be Tropical Storm Ophelia. Note they say "tropical" vs "subtropical" but as this is all happening in real time, anything could happen. It's as if you were told to pin the tail on the donkey while you were still spinning so any target could be pinned, tho it does seem it should be a Tropical Storm in less than 2 days time. The NHC, in a wise move, went with Potential Tropical Cyclone 16 as that is exactly what it is........potentiality being realized in real time and people need a heads up to know to prepare for what may be a bigger blow than many expect. It didn't roll off the coast of Africa and it wasn't an Invest for days, so suddenly out of seemingly nowhere we have what may become Ophelia in our own backyard.

I've said this before, when something forms fast close in you have to pay attention in real time quickly. An intensifying, developing system can pack a surprise punch vs a hurricane such as Idalia that sucked in too much dry air on it's eye wall replacement cycle before hitting land with hardly any sustained hurricane force winds. Developing systems ... more so intensifying systems .... can punch hard, kind of like a young boxer playing an old aging boxer he's the underdog until he knocks out the reigning champion.

While Liston was only 34 years old at the time.

Liston ....on the ground.

Muhummad Ali was 23... standing up there.

34 years old might not be old but....

....he was stung by Ali.

Float like a butterfly.

Sting like a bee.

That's what he said!!

First models running.

I had boyfriends who liked boxing growing up, you learn a lot when you listen. Point here is you may think PTC16 is just mess of convection, no real center fluttering around like a butterfly out to sea off the coast of the Carolinas and if you live in the Hampton Roads VA or Inland NC or Delaware on up to NJ you may be wrong and feel it stung like a mean bee. I say this often, we are overdue for a system to thread the Outer Banks (and or move further to the West than usual) and then thread the Cheasapeake Bay region as many old time storms have done.

IF as models show it pulling in to the left (west really NNW) this is more likely and if they do not it will skim the coast and move up towards a possible hit in New England. We have only begun to model it with the coordinates the NHC has given and we will know more from models later, but we will know more from watching PTC16 itself come together. The previous post showed the wind probabilities for many cities outside the Cone and this is one of those storms again where we need to look far outside the cone so remember that...for problems.

Also as the system is not well formed there is already WEATHER out ahead of it and that means by the time the winds arrive sustained in the 30s or 40s (in the beginning) and then slammed with stronger gusts and possible tornadoes it means that trees already in wet ground go down faster.

Note this is an Equninox Storm and if you have read this blog over time you know I mention this often, as the hurricane history books of old are littered with Equinoxal Storms that came up from more tropical regions mixing it up with a frontal boundary causing a mess. Old history books record the mess in detail as to how many trees were lost, what type of trees they were (young or old, unhealthy or healthy) and how many ships were lost at sea ............back when then there was no NHC to complain about as there was no warning when such a storm hit. Though old timers knew to worry this time of year for such a storm and tradition, history and observations were their only warning that a storm might be coming.