NHC STUCK on 30% for Coastal Low & 70% in MDR ... Nigel Doing That NATL Thing Popular in 2023. Weather is Locational It Dictates Our Priorities. I'm Watching the Carolina Coastal Low That May Or May Not Get a Name BUT Either Way Bringing Us Weather. Autumn Equinox Storm

 

I say this all the time, weather is locational. Watching the area of interest off the SE coast still "Yellow 30%" for possible development of some kind and what kind I might get where I am in North Carolina. Being honest. Mike is talking in the background ...something about the song Country Roads...old favorite for sure, but I'm looping models, sats and following my Twitter/X feed. 

Love the Wind option on Google Weather.

15 MPH winds in Raleigh.

Raleigh rarely gets big wind.

Steady wind, not gusts.

Gusts we get.

Thunderstorms/twisters.

Steady winds of 17 MPH ... fun.

Fresh air.

He went long on his weather segment. Weather people on air only have so much time to cover the weather and when weather is bland, they go long on local events and pretty sunrise pictures. When there is a possible weather event looking more and more possible most of their segment is about the possible weather that could cause weather and problems such as beach erosion and that's a big issue by the Outer Banks as OBX had some minor problems from Lee as it lumbered by with overwash, minor flooding and beach erosion. Now you add a possible tropical or subtropical or whatever they want to call it IF they name it means it could cause more problems than it might do so otherwise. Long sentences today, thinking out loud. The crickets and cicadas are loud, some call that singing I call it torture, but the window is open and I'm enjoying the fresh air and dry humidity, finally....

Mike's talking about curve balls... trying to say focused here but in the mood to listen as I type.

FALL

Autumn Equinox.

Before they had the NHC and your local Weather Bureau early settlers in the colonies learned to watch for what they called Equinoctial Storms. Often they would come up from the "tropics" or as they'd say "West Indies" other times strong cold fronts with wicked weather. The Weather Radio was someone like Benjamin Franklin who walked around letting people know the barometer was falling... because he was paying attention like any good storm tracker.

Note Eric Burris is watching the tropics.

He's watching the wave that could be close to SE

He's in Central Florida.

Looking out to the East... ESE often.

As for the NHC....

2 day page from NHC

A nice, strong front draped acrross Florida!

U know what happens when we see them dangling. 

Nigel long from N to S... going to NATL

Clusters of convection in MDR 

African Waves westbound

(for now...)

NHC using the "subtropical" tag here at 30%

Models like it, surprised it's not 40% at least.

ITCZ awfully juicy!

Out to the West we are stuck at 70% there.

Stuck at 30% and 70% for days it seems.

Let's get off the fence ... NHC.

Change is in the winds.

I want wind!

Saturday from NOAA

LOW parked off SC/NC coast.

we will seee what we see.

what I feel ....

as in what is real.

Silly mood today.

Inspired by cooler, drier air.

Chirpy bird singing.

Things to do

Places to go...

I'll update if the NHC blinks.

Mike, who I know well, said this morning that the first thing he does when he wakes up is checks on the weather. Yes, we do, we all wonder on the weather. And, when I say weather I don't mean "is it gonna rain today" but more an array of websites, models and satellite imagery. I do that too. We are all stuck on the weather which is wise as when you paid attention to the weather you had a heads up on survival. One of my closest friends Karen lives part of the year in Chiefland Florida ...an old Miami girl with long roots in the South like me. She listens to Eric Burris all the time, so finally I started to listen to Eric Burris and as always she's wise. She told me once, back before Ian, the problem today is people aren't always aware or scared of weather and that's what kept the old timers safe is they paid attention to signs, to patterns and when a WEATHER MAN on the TV told them that a hurricane was on the way they jumped into action and prepared. Today, for whatever reason, it's harder to get people to take them seriously as there are so many people online, on social media, on TicToc even telling them not to worry or about some alternative weather reality other than a Hurricane Watch from the NHC. Part of it is denial, no one wants to put up the hurricane shutters or take the boat to safety or think about something so real, natural as a hurricane messing up our perfect world. I may have added to what she said but I got the message and I listen to Eric Burris when a storm threatens part of Florida, the state my family lived in sine the 1800s... a place I have deep roots to even though I'm Up North in the Carolinas that are Southern but my Grandma Mary would call that "way Up North" where I get the chance of winter storms and tropical weather at the same time. A real win win and we even have Publix here now.

Sweet tropical dreams,

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram

Here's to the chasers...

...the storm trackers.

Researchers at NHC :)

We are all Weather Stalkers....