CAT 5 Updated 11 PM 160 MPH ..Forecast to be 180 MPH. Thank God Lee Did This Out At Sea Far From Land. Historic Hurricane!!!

...LEE BECOMES A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...

160 MPH

Looks hungry still.

Same Cone... 

Further intensification expected.

Forecast now to be 180 MPH

Leaving this info in bold.

Because it's about as bold as it can get!

Going to sleep...

...let's start over in the morning.

Can I sleep?

Please read below discussion on Size

It matters in Major Hurricanes.

More on that tomorrow.......

This is an old graphic.

Floyd on the left.

Anrdrew on the right.

This was used in many presentations to show the public how different the size was between the two Intense, dangerous and destructive hurricanes. Andrew was an intense wind storm with some rain. When we went downstairs on Miami Beach we expected to see flooding, water in the streets but nope was dry. The streets were littered with debris from businesses far away but no it was dry. Yet Floyd dumped obscene amounts of rain on North Carolina, flooding out almost every river basin there was and there are towns that never quite got rebuilt as people picked up and moved away.

Hard to make them out the Islands.

It is forecast to turn...

...lift North suddenly.

Maybe clip them a bit.

But.......size matters.

Squalls go out further from the eye when it's a large Category 5 and surf travels far and if there is any variation in the track just by the sheer size of Lee it can make a big difference compared to a small powerful, compact Category 5. And, yes the NHC takes all that into consideration, just pointing it out tonight after watching it loop for hours.  

It is forecast to turn sharply to the right before the Islands, sure hope that forecast verifies!!

From earlier this evening.

Thanks for reading.

And, you kind comments on Twitter!

Blue eye.... can see all the way down to Ocean.

Most likely will be a Cat 5 at 11 PM

Recon finding winds...

...but will see what they decide.

In motion.

Sunsetting on the eye of a Category 4

Perfection, precision!

Expected to peak at 165 MPH!!!!!

Cone remains the same.

Discussion from 5 PM is a good read. Mostly as you can hear amazement of forecasters with Lee.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/072052.shtml

Wind Probabilities are still there for the Islands, we wait as it's far away but if you are listed, watch for any small changes and remember as a Hurricane goes Cat 4 and Cat 5 the windfield expands.

Bottom edge of wind field cone...

...touches many islands.

Add in squalls and high surf.

If nothing else..........

NRL Navy Map

If you are in that shaded area...

...watch it like your life depends on it.

Until the shaded grid is far away form you.

Double red circles..Cane winds, TS Winds

Speaking of TS Margot arrived.

Not discussing it but....

...it's out there.

Back to Lee.........center stage.

Solid Tropical Energy.

in motion.........

As the sun starts to set on Lee

How long til it's a Cat three?

Seriously.

Last visible selfie.

From far away....and close up below

Atomic like energy swirling around it's eye.

Powerful.

Irma, Maria, Dorian like soon

Strong agreement.

Models turn it.

What could go wrong.....

...don't ask!

It's going to slow down in that region, 

near the turn.

Timing is everythng.

Hopefully it doesn't make landfall.

Even close impacts would be strong.

Just really keep watching it.

We will get recon info, that info goes into later model runs, and there is nothing better than info from recon put into model runs vs taking guesses and educated estimates on what it will or won't do. So hunker down, it's far away, watch it swirl on satellite imagery and soon we will feel more confident in the exact forecast.  That simple, and hope steering currents don't go wonky. Either way it's currently far out at sea doing it's thing. Are you doing yours? Prepare, stay aware and check back often.

Keep reading if you didn't do so. 

From 11 AM

105 MPH WINDS!

"Lee is rapidly intensifying" from NHC

Discussion from NHC explains that Hurricane Lee is going through Rapid Intensificaiton and will be a Major Hurricane soon actually saying "models are calling for remarkable intensification." 

Note they have it at 16O MPH!!

In the forecast.

NHC usually conservative...

...totally wild really.

Will update blog later today w next model runs.

Recon goes in Today.

Recon data into models....

....will make them better.

We need that data from Recon.

Blog today is on what is...

..what people are asking.

Next we have TD 14!

Not a surprise but here's the info.

Info on Lee at bottom of the Cone.

This is how Lee looks today on Earthnull.

Putting this to remind you how far away it is.

2,000 miles away from Miami approximately.

Lee is out there, biding it's time.

Consolidating.

Watch for Rapid Intensification....

...when that form is perfect.

That'll be Margot behind Lee.

Yes, new wave coming off 
Africa!

Using my words here this morning. It's important to understand for Lee to get from where it is now, to the intense Major Hurricane all the models are forecasting.... it needs to consolidate, build a well aligned perfect core. It's a vertical thing with Major Hurricanes, they don't happen when a hurricane looks good on satellite imagery, but it's core is tilted as it can't build high up and evacuate energy properly. It's very simple, slow to watch in real time and then when it's ready to go it's BOOM BOOM BOOM and Rapid Intensity (RI) begins and where it ends, we are never really sure. Needs the right environmental elements, a perfect set up and models have been calling for a perfect set up to allow Lee to become a Perfect Storm (visually anyway) while out in the Atlantic East of Florida and near the Bahamas where Hurricanes over history love to explode, stall and spin. 

So going back up to that loop up above... 

The front you see is not THE FRONT but a weak front cooling off North Carolina from 102 degrees yesterday to a chill 83 degrees once it passes then snapping back into the high 80s flirting with the 90s but hopefully it won't get there. Weather is all relative. After 102 degrees yesterday 83 sounds beautiful, almost chilly..... teasing but true in ways.

You look down at Lee and your mind begins to race in Miami and you ask questions online like this:

"How do we know it won't turn fast and a high sets in and it moves to South Florida??"

In North Carolina, people are asking the same question as models are closer to NC now than they were back when this began and it was EAST of Bermuda in long range models.

EURO Friday, September 15th.

Does it inch loser?

High surf for sure.

Long range model.

8 days away.

Using OBX as a bechnmark..

...for NE which I'll show below.

While I can say it most likely isn't a storm Miami needs to worry on, but there is no guarantee with that statement and this Miami girl watching it from North Carolina talking to my son in Miami is really watching it trust me. IF anything changes, you'll read it here FAST so check back often! And, as for NC how close it comes to our beautiful beaches will probably show us how realistic it might be that New England might have to deal with this one.

So why is this much benchmark?

Check back in 3 days...

..compare and contrast Lee's position.

Closest to OBX

(is that huge or what?)

Saturday, EURO   NE

Cape Cod

Note Long Island would get wild surf.

It sticks out there... 

Kind of New England's barrier Island..

...more than a part of NYC

Once past the 5 Towns and Valley Stream

(for LI readers)

GFS

People ask "Why aren't they warning New England??" or say "People in Maine need to know!!" and again there's someone in Miami asking "how do we know it won't turn" but the real answer is this:

When people see this image above, as a satellite image and watch loops of it spinning, looking like the biggest hurricane they remember... everyone on the East Coast will be aware it's there, and will be paying attention. I mean unless some crazy news event comes along.....steals the show, but trust me everyone will be aware it's there. And, everyone should be prepared, especially Up North where they will use leftover Hurricane Supplies for Winter Storms. 

Phil is the best.

You can't scream SHARK into a crowd in South Dakota and have anyone take you seriously. Lee is approximately 2,000 miles away from Miami. It's a whole lot further away from NC and NE. And, models are really only reliable for the first 5 days or so... close to 7 but so much changes. Again the Cone shown here from 5 AM is WIDE at the end because models are less reliable that far out.

Leaving you with a song.

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram