Hurricane Harbor: Updated 2 PM Tropics Today. THE WAVE 90% RED Invest 95L Islands & Miami Watching.. NC Watching. 2 Part Blog... Tropics Today and Thoughts on Idalia & Jimmy Buffett Whose Dreams Built a Beachy Empiire!

IF Vegas had ODDS on it...

...they'd prob favor recurve.

Too soon to tell.

Slow movers are tricky.

It's got a long way to go...

..and things can change.

Need a good center...

...then models get better.

Use your time wisely!

Sales on Labor Day good to do...

...for Hurricane Season..

If not you'll use them anyway

Better safe than sorry!

****

Let's decode the NHC page.

From left to right.

Idalia is not really gone....

...we just aren't talking about it.

Gert is not gone, hanging on.

Katia to the right, barely there.

What looks like a perfect wave by Africa.

Red long grid is at 80% in the 7 day.

The yellow smaller one is 20% in the 7 day.

Note that wave isn't in the water yet.

A current IR loop....

... it's definitely a contender!

GFS

Our red AOI takes it's time.

Til then it's an area of interest.

Problematic when they form close in.

Really slow mover, clips the Islands.

Makes landfall or just misses them???

Miami gets nervous!!!

Looks like a front, maybe high erodes some?

Saves the day.

Maybe.

EURO below.

Slow movers can be tricky!

Love the Icon. It's shorter term but long.

Beautiful model, love my Aquas.

Models vary.

Most show it moving West.

Hurricane strength.

What do we do?

We wait.

We prepare.

Time is a moving fast this year.

Below is some discussion on Idalia.

Again..........

.....because it was a contradiction over time.

Moved slower than molasses in the beginning.

Ran away with a front as it made landfall.

Life can be that way sometimes.

This blog is in 2 parts.

1st part Tropics Today.

2nd Part ...A look back at Idalia.

Much controversy about lack of winds at landfall.

Measured winds, NHC has explained it.

So have I but... shorter read than my last novella.

One of my favorite songs of all time, listen to those words. Who rolls those words together to a perfect tune at the same time? Jimmy Buffett a student of literature and history and a master of music.

I loved Jimmy Buffett not because I saw him for the first time on a date when I was really young, but it didn't hurt, but he loved words, music, beaches and ultimately Key West and that describes me as well. His soul was a poet, yet he had a passion for life ...living larger than life and inspiring all of us who really "got him" and understood and appreciated him. Ironically he knew when to lay back and take a break at the beach and he knew when to go on the road and knock out new Albums as well. Built an financial empire, a true double Capricorn who knew how to USE what he had and that was Margarittaville! Started with a store on Duval Street in Key West, restaurants, hotels, retirement communities, you name it there's a beach themed room waiting for you at the end of the road by a beach somewhere.

PSA part of the blog......

And, if he died of Skin Cancer, well that was his way of living and he'd rather have spent it in the sun, by the water near a beach than hidden in a room at a desk job. We all die, it's built into the program from the moment we are born, but few really live and he lived it his way. My mother had skin cancer, though she didn't die from it but it was annoyance to her. She grew roses, worked in the yard and grew up in Miami by the water but she had olive skin so it totally annoyed her that she got skin cancer and my father who was fair like me spent his life in the sun doing appraisals .. measuring houses, never got skin cancer. I have fair skin with olive undertones, a blend of my parents. I'm not a sun lover though I love the beach but prefer sunrise and sunset, at Noon in Key West you'd find me inside Margarittaville eating onion rings, getting a multicolored drink enjoying the music or at Camilles on Simonton Street or enjoying the cold AC at Faustos Grocery. I love the way the water sparkles at night, sitting in New Bern on the edge of the water having a drink at Persimmons even if the waitress has to bring me a blanket because it's too cold to be sitting outside by the water at night I'm still mesmerized!

Jim Williams has been battling skin cancer, he has spent his life outside in the sun due to his choice of jobs and he's been sharing his problems so people will remember to check themselves carefully. Life is about choices. We all make choices. I sit inside in the morning typing long blogs, because I love to write I have the time and it's kind of therapuetic in a way only another writer will understand.

Second part is Idalia if you want to read.

Two songs.

Besos BobbiStorm

Keep reading if you want...

See how much of her energy was far to the N

More on that below.

Isn't it Ironic we watch every African Wave....

...yet the Cane of the year came from the EPAC

Crossed over into the Caribbean.

Pulled it together in the Gulf of Mexico.

Lee is out there somewhere.......

...everyone's watching THE WAVE

Maybe it'll come from below?

Who knows.

Time will tell....

Idalia was an interesting hurricane on many levels. It's evolution from a stubborn Area of Interest, to it's long, slow, like watching paint dry formation near the Yucatan and Cuba. Note it rained on both places, just saying it did like land. Slow, steady movement North through the Gulf of Mexico more like a tortoise than a hare. Finally, wrapping up into a hurricane cruising past Naples and Tampa looking for a spot to make landfall. Every advisory it was 5 mph stronger, the barometer dropped a bit, it sped up a bit faster, slowly, steady, almost methodically it moved towards landfall. Cat 1, Cat 2 and then suddenly it looked like a Major Hurricane (that full hedgehodg look on satellite imagery) and everyone went hog wild over Rapid Intensification. For a hot minute it was a Category 4 but then it tried to a do eye wall replacemnt cycle at the wrong time and the wrong place. It's hard to do an eye wall replacement cycle while making a turn while about to make landfall. And, suddenly while every meteorologist expected RI none of them expected it to unravel as fast as it tried intensifying.

On the left a SMALL compact Major Hurricane

On the right, eye wall open gulping in dry air.

Houston we have a problem ....

Satellite view that shows an intense storm.

Note a good part of it was to the N moving fast.

Speeding up into the front.

As hurricanes do.

Just after landfall.

Bulk of ENERGY far to the North.

Idalia lost her energy just prior to landfall.

A common signature for this set up.

Strong NW side slammed Tally.

This happens. Especially approaching a front.

Sandy did that, people don't remember.

Signature is so huge on some satellite imagry.

Every storm is different.

Each storm is unique.

You an always find similarities.

Similar, but different.

Florida got lucky.

It could have been so much worse.

A different beach, a diffrent time.

Expensive but....

...imagine how expensive in Tampa.

Or St. Pete.

Or Tallahassee.

Expensive is relative.

Less deaths, less destruction.

Don't show me the worst picture of some homes on a canal, ripped apart by storm surge yet nearby some crappy little CBS construction house, probably a 3 bedroom, 2 bath is standing with minor damage. Storm surge does that on little islands jutting out into the water and to small picturesque towns sitting at the edge of a Marsh selling cute art prints to happy tourists on any given Sunday while others fish. It could have been so much worse and I'm not going to question what happened to it as you can think someone hit it with a gamma ray to destroy it or that prayers were answered or it simply transferred it's "energy" to the front and raced ahead of landfall fast. The same night that it made landfall in the morning it raced through here in North Carolina tearing small branches off the maple tree and ripping pine cones off the pines showering them down to the ground.

Give thanks! Give charity!

The next one may not be so kind....

Nuff Said!